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Getting up to speed - Russian bus market overview - EY - Global

Getting up to speed

Russian bus market overview

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Bouncing back from a long decline lasting from 2008 and early 2010, the Russian bus marketĀ¹ began to recover rapidly from 3Q 2010 and achieved a 33% sales increase over 2009. The total bus sales volume is estimated to reach 13,000 units in 2010.

The market growth was strongly driven by gradual production increase: bus production volume grew by 18% and accounted for 12,800 units. While the bus on truck chassis segment has shown a significant growth at 61%, the production of mini buses grew by 7% in 2010.

Looking at market structure by bus type, production volume was mostly driven by city buses whose share grew by 4% to 36% in 2010. However, the most popular production models in Russia are suburb buses as a result of local infrastructure and transport development.

In 2010, suburb buses claimed 61% of the total production volume. The intercity and tourist bus segment accounted for 3% and 0.03% shares of production respectively.

In terms of market structure by origin, local brands still held a dominant 78% share in 2010, although it declined from 87% in 2009. This reduction was caused by an increase in new imports and locally assembled foreign brands whose market shares increased from 3% to 7% and from 6% to 9%, respectively.

Dynamic of bus/mini bus/bus on truck chassis production, thousands of units

Dynamic of bus/mini bus/bus on truck chassis production, thousands of units

Source: ASM Holding, Mininistry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation, EY estimates

Buses production breakdown by segment, %

Buses production breakdown by segment, %

Source: ASM Holding, Mininistry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation, EY estimates

Bus market breakdown by origin, %

Bus market breakdown by origin, %

Source: Mininistry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation, EY estimates

Currently there are more than 800,000 buses in operation in Russia. Despite the growth in new vehicles sales, the average age of the Russian bus fleet is still very high. While the average regular service life of a bus is 9 years, 54% of the Russian fleet has been in use for more than 10 years.

EY forecast for the bus market

We expect the bus market to witness a fairly smooth recovery to reach the peak volumes of 2007 in the next few years. Anticipated fleet renewal measures will likely drive this growth in addition to their intended aims: preventing the fleet from operating buses beyond their acceptable service life and improving the level of passenger transportation security.

Russian bus fleet age structure breakdown, %

Russian bus fleet age structure breakdown, %

Source: ASM Holding, market players' data



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1 Mini buses and buses on truck chassis are excluded unless otherwise stated

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