Wind indices at August 2012
Source: Ernst & Young analysis
1.Previous ranking in Issue 33 is shown in brackets
2. This indicates US states with renewable portfolio standard (RPS) and favorable renewable energy regimes
3. Score and ranking potentially impacted this issue by a modification to the methodology to remove adjusted weightings for landlocked countries ( previously amended to reflect lack of offshore potential but lack of resource now captured in attractiveness)
Countries experience mixed wind-sector growth in the short term but annual growth forecasts suggest the next two years will be especially challenging for the global wind industry.
Germany has proposed new rules to help offshore grid connection, limiting grid operators’ financial liability for delayed offshore connections at €100m, whereupon the Government will step in. Other grid announcements this quarter, such as a subsea connection with Norway, will also ease wind power transmission links.
India’s Tamil Nadu state government is to provide five-year interest-free loans to companies looking to develop the 14GW of untapped wind potential in the state. However, the combination of a currency slide and the end of wind-specific tax incentives is threatening to make the wind projects unviable by pushing up the cost of imported components.
France’s wind tariffs are currently being assessed by the country’s Supreme Court on the basis of state aid; a negative outcome could mean the cancelation of FITs for the wind sector. France has also fallen a point in the offshore index amid concerns that the Government will delay the second round of the offshore tender and jeopardize the country’s ability to achieve it’s ambitious 2020 offshore wind target.
Wind indices at August 2012
Poland’s offshore wind sector received a boost this quarter following the award of five offshore wind permits totaling 4.5GW. Further, while the revised draft of the REA reduced support for onshore to 0.9GC/MWh, this was an improvement from the 0.75GC/MWh announced in the December 2011 draft.
Brazil has fallen a point in the wind index following the decision by BNDES to refuse wind developers loans covering some 2GW of turbines that were to be procured from five high-profile manufactures that, according to BNDES, have failed to meet 40% local content requirements. Further, government power auctions, in which wind was expected to feature heavily, have been delayed until October amid concerns about dwindling demand for new projects.
Denmark increased a point in the wind index with a predicted 1.8GW of additional onshore wind capacity by 2020 under the ambitious new energy targets, and government plans for two major offshore wind tenders covering at least 1GW of capacity.
Morocco received 16 submissions for a tender starting this year, targeting 2GW of wind by 2020. The submissions included a joint proposal by EDP and Goldwind for a huge 850MW wind farm. The quarter also saw the announcement of a 150MW project to be developed jointly by Mitsui and EDF, with at least 30% of the construction reported to be undertaken by Moroccan companies.
Chile’s largest wind farm secured US$245m (€197m) in project financing in Q2. Construction has already begun on the 115MW project, which will utilize turbines supplied by Siemens, and is expected to achieve commercial operations in 2014.
Bulgaria falls a point in the onshore wind index due to the 23.1% reduction in the country’s above-market FIT rates for large-scale wind projects to BGN0.133 (€0.068)/kWh.
This issue of the CAI also includes a technology feature which looks at global trends in the wind sector. The graph below illustrates the anticipated global picture through to 2020.
Global wind installations and annual growth forecast by region, 2011–20e (GW)
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