EY Eurozone Forecast: October 2015

Country focus

  • Share

The following buttons display the forecast highlights for each country in the Eurozone.

EY - Eurozone Forecast by country

Previous Next

  • Growth is now forecast at 2.6% this year, up a little from 2014, as exports start to recover, before rising to 3.8% in 2016. We then expect 4.5% in 2017-19, due to the recovery of private sector capital spending and continued public investment.
  • Inflation is set to rebound to over 2% in 2016, as import prices rise, and will be around 2.5% over the medium term, as a tightening labor market makes wage growth harder to match productivity growth. And population decline and a shortage of skilled younger workers will cap growth as recent emigration proves hard to reverse.
  • A persistent fiscal deficit reflects this year’s income tax cut and future steps to boost public and private investment, and raises the inflation risk despite supporting faster growth in 2015-18.
  • Downside risks persist in the short term due to EU-Russia trade strains, but an improving current account balance and rising investment will reduce medium-term growth volatility.

  • Latvia
    (Annual percentage changes unless specified)

      2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
    GDP 2.4 2.6 3.8 4.5 4.5 4.5
    • Private consumption
    2.3 3.3 3.7 4.1 4.2 4.4
    • Fixed investment
    1.3 1.3 4.8 5.7 5.3 4.6
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    1.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.8
    • Government consumption
    3.4 2.9 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.0
    • Exports of goods and services
    2.2 2.6 4.6 5.5 5.5 5.8
    • Imports of goods and services
    1.6 1.3 4.7 5.9 5.4 5.2
    Consumer prices 0.7 0.5 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.4
    Unemployment rate (level) 10.9 10.0 9.1 8.3 7.9 7.7
    Current account balance (% of GDP) -3.2 -2.0 -2.0 -1.6 -1.3 -0.9
    Government budget (% of GDP) -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4
    Government debt (% of GDP) 35.4 35.8 35.2 34.3 33.5 32.8

    Source: Oxford Economics.

    ::: Back

    Previous Next