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Global trade growth to become more concentrated - EY - Global

Trading placesGlobal trade growth to become more concentrated

The share of the oil and gas sector in global exports is set to drop back significantly.

Machinery and transport equipment, followed by other manufactures such as textiles, lumber and rubber, will account for the largest shares of global exports.

Sector shares in global trade

Indeed, these dominant sectors will account for close to 54% of merchandise trade by 2020.

What proportion of your output is exported now and what do you expect to export in five years' time?

Explores these shifting trends from another perspective, by comparing the sectoral contributions to the growth in world exports over the periods 2000–10 and 2010–20.

Sectoral contribution to increase in global trade

A similar pattern emerges: over the next 10 years, the sectoral contributions to trade are forecast to become increasingly concentrated, with machinery and transport equipment, and other manufactured goods, making larger contributions than during the preceding decade — together, they are forecast to account for 57% of the overall rise in global trade during 2010–20.

The rapid expansion of these sectors can partly be attributed to the forecast increase in final demand for consumer goods from the growing middle class in the emerging markets.

These sectors will also benefit from the continuing fragmentation of the supply chain, as they offer more opportunities for outsourcing of production.

By contrast, the share of the oil and gas sector in global exports is set to drop back significantly, which mainly reflects the more subdued long-term outlook for commodity prices.

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