Rapid-Growth Markets Forecast: February 2014
A new year offers the prospect of taking a fresh look at opportunities with renewed vigor.
In the case of the world’s rapid-growth markets, looking further into the future could reveal some exciting opportunities even if uncertainties remain as well.
We expect our 25 rapid-growth markets (RGMs) as a whole to recover over the course of this year with growth over 5% in 2015. But markets may react negatively to the global monetary tightening expected this year and this would limit growth over the couple of years.
Adding to the sketchiness of the 2014 growth picture is the growing divergence in the outlook for our RGMs. The liquidity that has underpinned strong growth in some of the RGMs over the past few years could dry up as the major advanced economies start to raise interest rates. However, before rates rise there is opportunity for the RGMs to press on with economic reforms.
We calculate that, in less than a decade, there will be 200 million RGM households with annual incomes exceeding US$35,000. The task for businesses today is to anticipate what goods these people will want to buy tomorrow and to produce them at prices they are prepared to pay.
By taking steps to improve their business climate and attract investment RGMs can still shape their own destiny. The opportunities created by long-term demographic and economic changes are there for all to see. You just need to look beyond the next 12 months.