Lower trade barriers in rapid-growth markets (RGMs) will boost both intra-regional trade and cross-regional trade.
Turkey is making the most of its trading position. This will help drive growth from 3.5% in 2013 to 5.4% in 2014.
Our economic forecasts are following the same trends as predicted three months ago. We expect growth in the RGMs to accelerate from 4.7% in 2012 to 6.0% in 2014.
World economy more globalized than ever
- International trade will drive world growth and RGMs will play an increasing role in the world economy over the coming decade. Trade will grow between these markets, creating a wide range of new opportunities for them. Advanced economies will also benefit, as exports to RGMs become a rising source of growth.
- The shipping industry will play a critical role in supporting the increase in trade.
- Southeast Asia has lowered many trade barriers in recent years, improving prospects for the region.
As RGM middle class expands, trade in services will rise sharply
- The wealthier populations will demand more banking, insurance and other financial services.
- The largest contribution to growth in goods trade will come from the machinery and transport equipment sector.
Mexico and Chile weathered the global downturn, but Brazil struggles
- Brazil’s recovery is still fragile, with growth falling short of 1% last year, but the economy is expected to pick up.
- Mexico and Chile grew more strongly last year and both carry strong momentum into 2013.
- More manufacturing trade will provide new channels for growth in Latin America and help protect the region from commodity price fluctuations.
Weak Eurozone demand weighs on emerging Europe, but Turkey is strong
- Middle Eastern countries are trading increasingly with other RGMs, reflecting the faster growth in RGM demand.
- Turkey is well set to make the most of its central location between Europe and Asia.
- Economic integration is boosting activity in Africa.