Russian and CIS automotive industry
After stellar growth in 2011, the Russian automotive industry showed relatively moderate growth during 2012.
Moving away from volatile growth, the Russian economy and its automotive industry are stabilizing and are expected to enjoy a moderate growth rate for the next five years.
3.5% — forecast growth for 2013 GDP in real terms
5% — annual forecast growth for light vehicles from 2013-16
4% — annual forecast growth for commercial vehicles from 2013-16
Key highlights of the study
- Russia to remain one of the most attractive markets in Europe due to low light vehicle density and advanced age of car fleet
- Light vehicle market exceeded pre-recession sales level, but 2013 likely to witness only flat or moderate growth
- Russian economy expected to grow at a moderate pace in 2013, with increase in household consumption to make up for an uncertain external economic environment
- Foreign players and government support steer automotive industry toward stable growth path
- Light vehicle financing market to see moderate growth in 2013 due to turmoil in global financial markets and rise in average car lending rates
- Car dealerships actively developing in line with international standards and attracting further investments
- Automotive logistics market witnessing a structural change with collaboration among large players and changing mix of transportation modes
- Domestic players dominate commercial vehicle market, but foreign brands gradually increase share of sales
- Positive outlook for the Russian bus market based on considerable age of vehicles used for passenger transportation and expected government support
- Automotive component market will undergo a paradigm shift led by regulatory support and technology transfer from partners
- Belarus and Ukraine posted the highest levels of sales growth in the CIS region during 2012.