Opportunities in adversity
The current economic crisis is calling into question business model fundamentals and putting all companies under stress. Volatility and uncertainty are the foremost characteristics of the new world economy and may well be for quite a while to come. Yet, experience of previous recessions shows that there will be companies that continue to prosper.
At Ernst & Young we are committed to understanding how companies are reacting to the current crisis. Working with the Economics Intelligence Unit we have conducted a comprehensive study of 337 leading companies around the world to create insight for companies in these difficult times. No matter what situation your company is in right now, whether you are focused on securing the present, protecting your assets, improving your performance, reshaping your business or sustaining the future, we believe that our research and insights will be valuable food for thought.
There is opportunity in the adversity of the worst of markets. Be encouraged to find that opportunity right now.
Introduction
A number of factors are impacting business around the world:
- Financing costs have increased as banks tighten their lending standards.
- Slowing economic growth: the IMF expects the world economy to grow on average by only 0.5% in 2009, revising its forecast down significantly. Developed economies are expected to contract to an average of -2% in 2009 — the first such fall since the 1940s. Growth in emerging economies will slow to an average of 3.3% in 2009.
- Rising unemployment and falling consumer confidence are impacting revenue growth.
- Falling profits: analysts are lowering corporate forecasts as the recession bites.
- Government intervention and potential regulation is changing the operation of the market.
Equally, market volatility has increased significantly, making planning difficult:
- Risk spreads on corporate bonds have soared to record levels and ratings agencies have downgraded many corporates, greatly increasing financing costs for firms seeking credit.
- Many currencies have suffered volatility as global investors continue to assess strength of economies thus undermining financial arbitrage strategies.
- Commodities and energy: the slowdown in global demand has led to a fall in commodity prices to six-year lows. Oil has fallen over US$100 a barrel based on the gloomy economic outlook and falling demand.
As a consequence, we are seeing an increase in stressed companies across the world. A record number of companies are expected to go bankrupt in 2009 with 200,000 insolvencies predicted in Europe alone — according to world’s largest credit insurer Euler Hermes. In the US, there is likely to be an explosion of failed businesses as an estimated 62,000 firms go under this year compared with 42,000 in 2008. More companies are likely to breach their loan covenants in 2009 as the slowdown intensifies, prompting a surge in company restructuring and failures.
Next section: Opportunities in adversity
Opportunities in adversity
What has immediately emerged from our study is that not all companies are equally affected by the downturn and that a sizable minority see opportunities from the current crisis — albeit also recognizing the threats.
While the overall impact on market capitalization has been extremely negative in the past 12 months, there is significant variation in performance by sector, as depicted below.

The executives we have spoken to recognize the challenge to their business but only 30% felt their focus for the next 12 months would be on corporate survival. Seventy percent believe there are opportunities to do more. While 35% reported a significant deterioration in the profitability of their sector, only 22% reported such a problem for their own company — indeed 15% reported some improvement in profitability over the past 12 months.
Similarly, their perspective of development in the competitive environment was also mixed. Price competition has increased for most — significantly so for almost a quarter of respondents — but other developments offer opportunity:
- 40% are seeing reduced risk of new entrants
- 34% are seeing competitors withdraw from their market; and
- 35% are seeing an increase in bankruptcies among competitors.
This is the harsh reality of competition — performance is relative and the misfortune of your competitors can provide the greatest of opportunities.
We can see this pattern repeated when we asked respondents how the crisis had affected their approach to their customers. Seventy-two percent reported that they had increased their focus on key accounts — with the increased service that this implies for their customers. Thirty-nine percent reported that they had launched new products and services and 34% had moved to broaden their customer base by entering new markets. These are tough challenges but they speak of new opportunities. Balancing the upside, however, smaller but significant numbers of respondents talked about terminating high-risk contracts, losing customers to bankruptcy and having customers end contracts with them.

The pattern is even more stark with suppliers where respondents reported that while 46% of them had narrowed their supplier base to obtain more favorable terms, some 42% had acted to broaden their supplier base to “reduce the impact of the failure of an individual supplier.” Here the response to adversity is driving diametrically opposed behavior from different companies. A supplier is clearly almost equally at risk of losing a customer as gaining a new one.
Key questions — protecting your assets
- How can I address my immediate financial issues ... faster and better than my competitors?
- How can I protect what I have ... so my business is stronger?
- How can I get the most from current assets ... and out perform the sector?
- How can I reshape my business to fit the new reality ... to become faster and leaner?
- How can I exploit the new market to find growth ... where others may have taken their eye off the ball?
- How can I sustain my business going forward ... so that I am the best prepared to cope with change?
Looking to the future, we asked what change companies expected to see in the importance that their organization attached to different goals:
- 74% reported that they were focused on “securing the present”
- 40% expected to see a significant increase in protecting their current assets
- 39% were seeking significant performance improvement
- 37% expected to see reshaping of the business to meet new conditions
- 19% expected to see a significant increase in the pursuit of new market opportunities.

Faced with these conflicting messages, how should management respond?
Perverse as it may seem, a period of crisis can provide an opportunity to drive change more rapidly and effectively than a period of prosperity.
The evidence from earlier recessions showed that the majority of companies responded with what seemed like very understandable caution. Subsequent research, however, has shown that those which emerged strongest had clearly identified opportunities to sustain their development during the downturn and to take strategic decisions that distinguished them from their competitors. Perverse as it may seem, a period of crisis can provide an opportunity to drive change more rapidly and effectively than a period of prosperity.
Our conclusion is that uncertainty cannot be allowed to become inaction, performance is relative, and a risk is an opportunity that has not yet been exploited. Whatever a company’s position — from cash-rich through to deeply distressed — there is now a great need for decisive management action.
Next section: The starting point is cash
The starting point is cash
Many companies are facing a future of great uncertainty. Change in the market has impacted their performance and that of their suppliers and customers. Time is limited. Management is stressed. Old certainties have disappeared. Yet, in seeking to take the right steps, it is critical that management ensures that they are going in the right direction. How badly has the company been hit and how fundamentally has their world been changed?
The search for understanding must be deep, broad and focused. Deep — as management seek to understand the full consequences across the entirety of their organization; broad — in encompassing the impact on customers, suppliers and, critically, competitors; and focused — in that the primary short-term goal in a credit crisis must be cash.
At Ernst & Young, we have been utilizing a stress pendulum that focuses especially on the issue of cash. The primary — but not the only driver of management actions — is the amount of cash that the company has and is generating. If you are burning cash during a credit crisis, your priorities are clear. If you are generating cash through operations, the opportunities are many.
As shown earlier, different sectors will be in different places on this spectrum but this analysis needs to be done for individual segments of a sector and for individual companies within each segment. Take oil and gas as an example: some NOCs and IOCs are extremely cash rich whereas many smaller exploration companies find themselves extremely resource stretched.
Equally, it is important to recognize that this model can be applied within many larger companies which may have business units at very different places on the spectrum. Our belief is that “one size” does not always fit all and frequently does not fit any. Management should seek to drive programs of action related to where they sit on this spectrum.

Next sectiom: Securing your present
Securing your present
Working capital is the lifeblood of a company, and the ability to manage it becomes even more important in a downturn due to falling revenue and restricted access to new funds.
Sixty-eight percent of respondents reported that they had already conducted a top-down review of cash management. More significantly, over half of respondents have already built working capital measures into their performance objectives. But clearly such a review does not always find a satisfactory picture — indeed the years of high liquidity and “cheap credit” initially encouraged and have now left many businesses in a highly leveraged state. Thirty-six percent of respondents report that they are considering possible assets that can be turned into cash and 21% are currently making emergency plans to release additional cash.

Companies need to secure their positions by identifying and resolving critical issues quickly to protect against value erosion, or to be well placed to take advantage of opportunities. A holistic review of a company’s ability to access liquidity, manage and release cash and control costs is essential to managing overall risk from changes in market forces.
A holistic review of a company's ability to access liquidity, manage and release cash and control costs is essential .
There are six key areas that companies scrutinize to reduce expenses and support revenue growth — without sacrificing corporate strategy. These are customer portfolios, contracts, finance operations, supply chain, information technology and real estate.
- Customer portfolios represents more than just the people and companies to whom you sell. To a large extent it also represents your profitability. Invest in customer portfolio management.
- Establish and implement a process of regular assessment and monitoring of contractual partnerships.
- Organizations look to the finance function in times of downturn to provide business insight and lead the way with sound financial management. The finance function needs to be agile enough to respond effectively and drive the changing business agenda.
- A large portion of a company’s expenses may flow through its supply chain, so it is no surprise that a close examination can yield saving opportunities. But supply chain also presents an opportunity to increase revenue by selling into markets that may not be as affected by the downturn.
- Information technology is another significant budget area for a company. As leading companies look for increased value and cost improvements, there is an interest in understanding where IT investments are occurring, the value derived and the alignment with strategic objectives.
- For many companies, more capital is tied up in real estate than in most other assets. Opportunities for disposal may be limited but should be explored.

Key questions — cash preservation and generation
- What steps are being taken to manage cash more tightly and improve cash flow forecasting?
- What are the potential sources for improving liquidity?
- Are there plans in place to divest non-core businesses to increase liquidity and satisfy lenders?
- Is the company prepared for potential bid approaches?
- Is there a disciplined working capital management program in place?
- What are the objectives of cost reduction efforts?
- Is a cost reduction or management program needed and in place?
- Who is at risk in the customer or supply chain?
Next section: Protecting your assets
Protecting your assets
Opportunities in adversity
Many of the world’s foremost corporate leaders indicate that the current global economic downturn caught them by surprise. But, with hindsight, some may question why this was the case. For several years, there have been a growing number of commentators questioning the sustainability of the credit boom and its consequent impact on asset prices and consumer confidence. Even the credit crunch itself had happened a full 12 months before the financial crisis hit in September 2008. Given that business is inherently risky, it is not unfair to question whether risk management systems could and should have been more helpful to management?
We draw the conclusion, based on earlier research, that good risk management systems should have helped mitigate the crisis. Our research has found that many companies had inadequate risk management systems — they either didn’t do risk management or did it inadequately in scope or frequency. Had these gaps been addressed, the risks would have been mitigated and the surprise minimized. Too frequently, however, risk management appears to have become an act of management compliance rather than the exercise of leadership judgement — the wrong people looking for the wrong things at the wrong time.
The current crisis is the time for companies to form a strategic view of the risks that they are facing and develop the necessary action plans required should the event they fear actually happen. The situation is rapidly changing and can get worse. A number of the highest profile casualties of the current crisis, confidently and honestly predicted that they were through the worst only weeks before their worlds caved in. Risk management needs to be taken back from the compliance function into the boardroom. Management needs to be alert and nimble, prepared to define their risk appetite and tolerance, and monitor it.
Keeping a company strong is not just about the bottom line — a company’s value is now defined by a wider picture where both good governance, transparent reporting and communication form an integral part of investor decision making processes. Once lost, a company’s reputation can be hard, and sometimes impossible, to regain. Investors have told us that in the event of a reputational problem, they expect quick, clear communication which addresses the issues and outlines the remedial action taken.

Of course, the key is for issues not to become problems in the first place, and if early warning systems identify potential strategic, operational, financial and regulatory risks, mitigating actions could already be in place to protect the company’s assets and reputation. Yet 42% of C-suite level executives in a recent Ernst & Young study indicated that risk assessment had been inadequate in the past year.
Of our respondents, only 57% had already implemented enterprise risk management and only 53% had implemented any form of scenario planning — albeit even if that planning may not have factored the credit crunch and recession into the model. It is fair to assume that many of the companies that will prosper during this difficult market have a robust approach to risk management.
Our study also indicates that risk profiles have changed in light of current circumstances with increasing scrutiny on strategic risks such as planning and resources (78%) and operational risks such as sales and marketing activities (70%) and supply chain (64%).
What is needed in many companies is a new approach to assessing the potential risks that now present themselves. This will ensure that processes are in place to flag issues early and at the same time, and identify opportunities for getting ready for the rebound whether they are strategic growth or operational cost reduction related.

Key questions — protecting your assets
- When was your last risk assessment conducted and has this been updated to take into account current economic circumstances?
- Have you determined your risk tolerance? Do you have a thorough understanding of your degree of flexibility and critical assets to protect?
- Has due diligence been re-visited for key suppliers and major contracts? What’s your “plan b” if a supplier or major contractor goes into administration?
- What controls are in place to improve early warning?
- What scenario planning have you conducted? What balance is there in your risk assessment? Does your organization have plans B and C in line with the above scenarios?
- At what point will you move from short term fire-fighting/cost cutting mode towards a strategic mid- and longer-term modelling?
Next section: Improving your performance
Improving your performance
Management should always be seeking to maximize the effectiveness of their operations, but in times of broad economic growth and profitability, this goal can sometimes be downplayed against other worthy goals of achieving market and reputation share, strengthening client relationships or long term strategic positioning. In the current market conditions, however, improving performance effectiveness becomes critical to business survival.
It is also important not to overlook the fundamentals. In our survey, 55% of respondents reported increased delays in cash collection from customers. Businesses need to ensure that their functional processes are streamlined — and more visibly connected throughout — in order to increase lines of communication between potentially distressed business functions or operating units and their customers. This will facilitate improved cash collection, reduce revenue leakage and allow companies to identify customer-debtor issues early on.

Twenty-three percent of respondents believe future investment focus is on maintaining the current business model while 53% seek improvements to the current model. Overwhelmingly, therefore, management is focused on getting improved performance from the assets and operations that it currently has. Now is a time for business to ensure that it is getting the maximum return on the assets that it employs. Cost reduction — although hard to achieve — is the starting point. Improved effectiveness, however, must be the goal.
And our respondents indicate that extensive focus is already underway on cost reduction. Some 84% of respondents have completed their cost savings analysis. Overwhelmingly they have focused on four major areas of headcount, IT, employee benefits and real estate.

While the first response to a more difficult market is to seek to improve efficiency — reducing costs, slowing recruitment, reducing inventory — the risk of reduced effectiveness is real. Cost cutting — though difficult to achieve in reality — is frequently, at best, a short-term solution. Leading companies who want to win in the market longer term, cannot lose sight of the effectiveness agenda — however hard the conditions get. In addition, therefore to reducing resources used they must move to reexamine the processes they adopt.
Respondents, however, paint quite a challenging picture of how the engines of growth have been affected by the current conditions. A cut back in mergers & acquisitions is perhaps the most understandable given the levels of market uncertainty but the cut backs in marketing, R&D and operations, may make it difficult to secure the opportunities that the market offers.

Given current market conditions, the need for performance Information technology improvement has never been more urgent. The speed of change presents a challenge, and business success rests on management’s Sales and marketing ability to achieve considerable improvements quickly. Consequently, effective performance improvement is now a crucial differentiator and can provide significant competitive advantage.
Balance emerges as the key theme from past downturns. All too often, the immediate reaction is to cut costs, to stop capital Sustainability programs and to delay strategic initiatives. But leading companies seek balance. Balance between improving operating efficiencies at all and improving revenue growth, and balance between cutting costs and investing in process improvement to prepare for the future. Companies that emerged successfully from previous downturns focused on reducing expenses without sacrificing their long-term health.
Key questions for management
- Have you adjusted the scope of your ongoing performance improvement and cost reduction initiatives as a result of the economic situation?
- If you are reducing your available resources (i.e., headcount, IT functions), how will this impact on the efficiency of your core processes, and your ability to react quickly to major opportunities?
- What steps are you putting in place to mitigate against the fall in the creditworthiness of customers?
If your key competitor ceased trading tomorrow, how quickly could you capitalize on this new market
opportunity? - How close is your ideal business model to your actual model, and are there opportunities now to make key changes?

Next section: Reshaping your business
Reshaping your business
The impact of the market changes has clearly been significant — many businesses have been damaged and some business models have been radically changed. Management must take action to change their operations and assets to reflect their new world and prospects.
While current economic conditions change, many long term trends do not change at all. Business models have been undergoing a deep-seated restructuring as long-term trends challenge models that have been the norm for many years. Companies are being forced to review their methods of organization due to a range of macro influences:
- Diversification, globalization and (de)regulation are challenging the current organization model.
- Business models need to be increasingly flexible to facilitate adaptation to changing market dynamics across both geographic and product divisions.
- Niche specialists are increasingly prevalent in specific business divisions such as logistics, HR, IT and back office functions. These specialist players compete with vertically integrated businesses operating across all operating divisions, bringing their viability into question.
- Innovations in information technology are facilitating the emergence of new players, new organizational models and increased competition.
Even in favorable market conditions, business remodeling requires careful planning. With growing economic uncertainty, structural adjustments require an even higher level of due diligence and analysis. But the demand is, if anything, accelerated rather than changed as a robust and flexible model is critical to achieving the same results in less favorable conditions.
In response to the economic crisis, companies may be tempted to put aside long term strategic plans and opt for what seem to be quick fix solutions, in an attempt to deal with burning issues. Businesses that emerge strengthened from the current crisis will be those that reshape intelligently, not those tempted to move quickly to extract additional value. They will be able to benefit from increased flexibility, which is key in these uncertain times. However, the advantages extend beyond this and represent the necessary adjustments to stay ahead and respond to the long term, underlying change in the business operating environment.
In the current environment, companies need to see a discernible short-term impact of their decisions — although business reshaping can and must deliver quick fix solutions. Robust implementation processes however are critical to ensure that companies adopt sustainable models and do not increase their level of risk or impair performance.
We anticipated that the current uncertainty would lead to management delaying programs of re-shaping. Far from being frozen into inactivity, however, companies seem to be using current conditions to accelerate. A full 82% of respondents expect business restructuring to play an increased role in the coming year.
Key requirements for successful implementation
- A robust business case alignment with strategy.
- Effective change management.
- A planning and design process that is agreed with all stakeholders.
- Effective monitoring post-reshaping and an ongoing refining process.
Of the business reshaping options, some 40% of respondents are focused on divesting non-core/non-performing assets. Almost the same number, however, are actively exploring strategic acquisitions in their core business — with a further 29% exploring the use of strategic alliances. Almost a third are considering offshoring to lower cost locations with a similar number anticipating an increased use of outsourcing and shared service centers.
Expansion measures, whether expanding into new geographical markets, or developing new product lines, are understandably lower priority. Companies prefer to concentrate on maximizing the potential from existing markets, which are perceived as more of a ‘known quantity’ in these uncertain times. Business diversification is envisaged by a more limited, but still significant, 19% of those surveyed, while 20% foresee geographical expansion.

There are a broad range of functions where management is considering increasing either outsourcing or the use of shared service centers. Outsourcing is seen as particularly appropriate for logistics, IT network management and telecommunications. Shared services are seen as more attractive for human resources and accounting. Although such measures offer potentially increased flexibility, the flip side for those entering into new contracts is that they may be required to sign detailed contracts where they may be locked in for several years.

Next section: Sustaining your future
Sustaining your future
“2009 could be the year in which financially sound organizations make their corporate fortunes.”
In the current turbulent economic environment, there are market growth opportunities for those businesses prepared to seize the moment — offering businesses the potential to increase market share in key geographies or sectors. Often when the market is under most stress, organizations are forced to re-examine their business models and create the most successful foundations for growth. It is those companies that have developed a sustainable business model that will be successful in the downturn, as they are well-placed to take advantage of the new growth opportunities, especially when the economy improves.
It is clear that in 2009 there will be unparalleled opportunities to acquire assets at very modest valuations. Any company with access to capital will be in a very strong position to make value-enhancing acquisitions. The main question will be one of timing. Given the unprecedented nature of the current economic situation, predictions on when the economic spiral will reach a bottom are meaningless. The key attribute to taking advantage of attractive opportunities will be flexibility and preparation.
Many executives react instinctively during economic slowdowns by cutting discretionary spending across the organization. They often fail to distinguish between short-term operational and the long-term strategic programs which are still vital to build capabilities for long-term competitive advantage and future growth.
Here we focus on three key themes for a sustainable future — maintaining a sustainable business model; capitalizing on growth opportunities in emerging markets and taking advantage of opportunistic deals.
Maintaining a sustainable business model
Ernst & Young’s experience has identified the characteristics that determine those businesses that are best positioned for growth coming out of a market downturn. There are three key areas of focus — the business model; clear strategic decision-making and customer loyalty.
It is those companies that use the situation as an opportunity to maintain a sustainable business model that will not only survive the downturn, but emerge stronger and in the best position to take advantage of the new growth opportunities as the economy improves.
The business model
A successful model will be flexible and scalable (across people, process and technology) to take advantage of opportunities that emerge. It can adapt to changes in volume rapidly without being dependent on large scale recruitment, training and capital investment.
As organizations find their path through the current economic downturn, many executives tend to focus on staff efficiency and headcount. In our survey, 60% reported that they were currently or planning to implement headcount reduction strategies, and 42% reported benefits from rationalization programs within their companies.
The war for talent doesn’t stop during a downturn — it is exacerbated. Forward-thinking organizations can use more innovative talent-management approaches to gain a competitive advantage that can help them ride out the downturn and create a strong platform for recovery and growth.
People remain a key priority. Treating them in a fair and transparent way during volatile times becomes even more important to their future loyalty. Holding on to high quality talent and capitalizing on the growing pool is often the real source of competitive advantage and sends a clear message to the market that this company is resilient.
Corporate alliances, which are growing and account for about a third of revenues at many companies, need even more care and handling during a recessionary business climate. The interdependence between companies that may be competitors with different operating styles and cultures becomes even more acute as the immediate market pressures take hold.
Product development, technology and innovation budgets are likely to have been reduced under the cost reduction banner. Experience from previous downturns has been that those who stick with a focused investment program have emerged stronger than their peers. This requires a clear understanding of where the opportunities are and in particular a heightened understanding of where the competitors are weakened through the downturn.
Clear strategic decision making
Organizations that are successful in a downturn have absolute clarity of their proposition, strategic direction and brand positioning combined with responsive decision making. They leverage existing management information more smartly to take advantage of market changes and quickly exclude those opportunities that do not fit with the strategic direction.
Investing in customer loyalty
Responding to and staying close to your customers has never been more important for businesses than during times of economic instability. Research shows that recessionary periods provide a good opportunity to retain and develop customer loyalty through investing in and developing effective customer relationships as a vehicle for future growth.
It follows on that by aligning pricing strategy and products/services to reflect the changing circumstances of customers, companies can more readily deliver a strong growth value proposition. Identifying pricing, channel and value opportunities across brands and markets, developing pricing strategies optimizes shareholder value and return on brand equity.
Capitalizing on opportunities in emerging markets
While most emerging markets are likely to experience slower growth in 2009, many of them are still expected to grow by 5% — a stark contrast to most developed countries. Businesses will be keen to find opportunities offering greater exposure to these markets, particularly as valuations are likely to be considerably below recent levels.
While the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China) are clearly the major players (with China alone contributing nearly 27% to global growth in 2007), another group of countries are emerging and have the potential to behave like the BRICs, driving growth and making waves in the global market.

Doing opportunistic deals
Businesses continue to be bought and sold. Forty-three percent of respondents to our survey said the current market environment would make them more likely to consider divesting and 62% said they are looking regularly at each business in their portfolio to determine whether or not to sell it. Intense pressure is bearing down on executives to create the right divestment and acquisition strategies as many sectors consolidate further. Research shows that downturn mergers generate about 15% more value (total shareholder return) compared with boom time mergers.
Keeping sustainability on the agenda
When looking to the future, businesses still need to keep an eye on their environmental and sustainability policy and practices, and those of their suppliers — particularly with the tighter regulations and increased number of oversight bodies. Short-term profits built upon unsound or unpopular corporate behaviors may appear to be an attractive option today but the implications of these decisions can be very long-lasting, and may permanently damage what ever goodwill the company has achieved in the past for its environmental and sustainability position. Staying close to the regulators and emerging as a clear champion for responsible action will remain a source of competitive advantage.
We undertook earlier studies into the attitudes of management over the summer months of 2008. This was before the financial crisis but the downturn was already noticeable and we were keen to see how management was responding. At the time there were some alarming signs that issues of sustainability were beginning to fall down the corporate agenda.
Other studies have raised similar concerns but our latest study suggests that few companies are seeing opportunities to reduce their investment in sustainability issues. This is encouraging — not just from an environmental perspective — but because there are significant growth opportunities for companies who embrace the sustainability agenda in addition to those opportunities to build their brand and reputation.
Do not forget your people
Be clear and honest about purpose — Winning leaders increase their level of communication during a downturn and recognize the need to share greater understanding of where the organization is going and why. Key talent is a critical audience for this as their motivation and loyalty will remain high if they trust what their leaders or future employers are saying, and feel they have a vital role in creating a successful future.
Develop tomorrow’s leaders — Successful companies prioritize the talent they need to nurture, and invest heavily in their development. A major bank is even placing its talent in high pressure opportunities created by the downturn and increasingly using international placements when growth opportunities in their home market are limited. Organizations will find that the competencies they look for will change as they move through the cycle, and it is critical that performance frameworks quickly reflect and encourage these changing skills sets.
Get creative on rewards — With pay rises and bonuses unlikely in the near future, executives need to move beyond ‘bribing’ their talent to perform. Key talent do not want to put their careers on hold during a downturn, and so leaders need to look at innovative ways to reward the value they create, such as public recognition or asking them to lead high-profile projects. Organizations are also getting smart in the way they use flexible and home working, reduced hours and sabbaticals where tough decisions need to be made.
Create the right environment — The best employees thrive with challenge and come to the forefront during adversity. While executives worry about the impact of their decisions on staff numbers and facility closures, it is important they also focus on the opportunities their staff can create if they, as leaders, create the right environment in which they can excel. This is where they can get ahead in the war for talent and the battle for competitive advantage.
Next section: A time for action
A time for action
In times of great uncertainty and stress, there is a temptation to wait and see. Maybe tomorrow there will be more clarity as to risks, maybe things will have improved and tough decisions can be delayed. And our survey shows some evidence of that — the almost 30% of respondents who have not increased their focus on their customers, the 16% who have not begun to think about cost savings or the 40% who are taking increased time to action their plans concerning reshaping their business.
At the other end of the spectrum, there are those who have panicked into a burst of activity — any activity. It has, fortunately, been some time since we experienced a deep recession and perhaps some managers have not experienced market conditions that are this difficult. But our survey also saw a number of respondents who seemed to be answering “all of the above” to every list of possible actions. There is certainly no doubt that many executives are working increasingly hard, but wasted effort is more the consequence of clouded thinking than a solution to economic hardship.
From our perspective, we believe it is necessary to recognize that the crunch has happened, and that its consequences will continue to emerge. Past actions can be regretted but they cannot be reversed. The future, however, can be different and that is where management must focus.
We believe that now is the time for leaders and management:
- To quickly focus on cash and your exposure to the downturn. The greater your liquidity, the greater your options and your prospects of success. Understand the impact on your clients and your suppliers. Seek to understand the impact on your competitors.
- To seek to know your situation and your options. Now is the time to be serious about risk management — not as procedural compliance but as the process for evaluating future actions and consequences.
- To focus on the performance of your team and your assets. When markets are tough and resources are scarce, this is the time to be ensuring that you are making both efficiency and effectiveness gains. Performance is relative — for even the most distressed of companies.
- To focus on driving the changes in the organization to match the changed environment that we have entered and to deliver the performance that will shape the market of the future.
- To be bold about the opportunities that do exist to fundamentally change the competitive position of your organization to not just survive the economic downturn but to thrive and build a position to rebound when conditions change.
Next section: About this report
About this report
For this study, the Economist Intelligence Unit surveyed 337 C-suite and board level executives.
Respondents were drawn from across the world. All executives polled worked for companies with a turnover in excess of US$1 billion and businesses were cross-industry. The research was carried out between 6 and 19 January 2009.




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