The Ernst & Young ITEM Club - Ernst & Young - United Kingdom

ITEM Club says UK growth will struggle to reach 1% next year
In its Autumn forecast, the ITEM Club says that although the recession is ending, the UK is in for a bumpy ride for the next 18 months. Although business confidence has been rebuilding and stockmarkets recovering, GDP is still forecast to end 2009 down 4.5%. The new year increases in VAT and in stamp duty on houses and the inevitable tightening of fiscal policy will dampen activity, restraining growth to just 1% over 2010. Further growth is still dependent on recoveries in world trade and in the supply of credit.
 
Read our summary of ITEM's forecast, Economic Outlook for Business  2.6Mb, October 2009

Also read our press release and watch Peter Spencer, Chief Economic Adviser to The ITEM Club.

Latest reports

ITEM Club sees bleak outlook for UK house prices
In a special report, the ITEM Club says that the recent rise in house prices is a false dawn, supported by cash buyers and the shortage of properties for sale. The continuing paucity of mortgage funds and tight lending criteria will mean that prices are likely to fall again in 2010 and won't start to pick up until 2011 as the wider economy strengthens. ITEM says it is likely to be more than five years before prices rise back to the peak levels of 2007.
 
Read the ITEM Club's report on the UK Housing Market   September 2009, 9 pages, 436k 

Also read our press release.

Lessons from change ... new business insights from Ernst & Young
This year, we held 40,000 meetings with senior executives across the globe. We asked: how are you managing through the downturn? Then we gathered these insights into a report. Read Lessons from change ( 1.7Mb, October 2009), the latest in our Opportunities in adversity programme, designed to help businesses across the globe act decisively in the downturn.

  Bounceback in manufacturing does not signal a rapid recovery
5 November 2009 


  Starting Q4 with a bang, but will it all fizzle out in the New Year?
4 November 2009 

  Manufacturing output jumps
2 November 2009

  Shaky foundations point to housing market dip in 2010
29 October 2009

  Broad-based weakness keeps economy in recession
23 October 2009



  Still a chance that QE programme will be expanded
21 October 2009

  Sorry state of public finances highlight challenges facing the next government
20 October 2009

  Weak earnings growth endangers the recovery
14 October 2009

  Headline inflation drops but the core is being stubbornly sticky
13 October 2009

  ITEM Club comments on the Government's £16billion asset sale
12 October 2009

  Gradual improvement in trade is representative of wider trends
9 October 2009

  MPC in ‘wait and see’ mode
8 October 2009