The Ernst & Young ITEM Club
The Ernst & Young ITEM Club is the only non-governmental economic forecasting group to use the HM Treasury model of the UK economy. ITEM's forecasts are independent of any political, economic or business bias, providing an impartial benchmark for other private and public economic forecasts. Ernst & Young's sole sponsorship of the ITEM Club helps meet our clients' needs for objective economic forecasts in their business planning.
ITEM Autumn Statement Preview
ITEM's special report looks at changes we can expect in the Office of Budget Responsibility’s new forecasts, and assesses where the Chancellor could adjust policy to support economic growth.
Read ITEM's Autumn statement preview 315K, December 2012
Scottish ITEM Club forecast 2013
Scottish economic shrinkage on par with troubled Spain
Scotland’s overall output decline of 4% over the past four years puts it on a par with the troubled Spanish economy, according to the latest Scottish ITEM Club economic forecast.
Read ITEM's 2013 Scottish forecast 5.2Mb, December 2012
Read the press release.
ITEM Club Special Report on business investment November 2012
Slow and steady recovery in business investment will continue to stunt UK growth, says ITEM Club report
UK business investment is lagging behind global competitors and won’t return to pre-recession peaks until at least 2015, says ITEM's special report.
Read the full report 703K, November 2012
Read the report summary 1.5Mb, November 2012
Read our press release.
ITEM Club Outlook for Financial Services Autumn 2012
UK financial services: things are looking up for 2013
The Ernst & Young ITEM Club Outlook for financial services Autumn Forecast (6.6Mb, October 2012) strikes an optimistic note for the UK’s financial services institutions in 2013 and beyond. Deleveraging and bank income both start to stabilise, insurance profits begin to recover and equities are set to return to growth. However the industry will still need to tackle some significant challenges before the end of the year.
Key highlights
- Corporate lending forecast to shrink by 4.6% in 2012, dropping to £429bn by the end of the year
- British Business Bank’s intended lending capacity of £10bn could be exhausted within a year
- SMEs could face a funding gap of £19bn
- Total UK bank income expected to decline by 5.5% in 2012, before stabilizing in 2013
- Insurers profits predicted to stage a gradual recovery from 2013
- Total Assets under Management expected to grow by 8.5% this year, and 6.6% in 2013
- Bond AUMs start to lose appeal from 2013, whilst equities set to pick up in the medium term
For more detail, download the full report 6.6Mb, October 2012
ITEM Club Autumn 2012 forecast
Consumption picks up but trade and investment lag behind
In its Autumn forecast, the ITEM Club says the outlook for the high street will continue to improve as inflation falls and employment grows. With mortgages becoming more readily available, the housing market will start to pick up, generating activity in associated businesses. The export growth that the UK badly needs will be harder to find, but ITEM expects a recovery next year, saying that there will continue to be good opportunities in emerging markets for those who can identify them, despite slowing rates of growth.
For more detail, read our summary of the ITEM Club's forecast or download a print-friendly pdf:
The full ITEM Club forecast will be available to many of our clients on the Ernst & Young Client Portal.
We expect to publish the ITEM Club's Winter forecast for the UK economy on this page on Monday 21 January 2013.
ITEM Club Special Report on consumer spending June 2012
Short term outlook for consumer demand growth in 2012 and 2013 expected to reach only half the level predicted in June 2011, says ITEM Club report
Our latest research with the ITEM Club suggests growth in consumer demand this year and next will be only half the level expected 12 months ago. The squeeze on household disposable income caused by rising oil prices and volatility in the Eurozone are partly to blame, but continued weak wage growth, inflation and high unemployment are the main culprits.
For more detail, download the full report
Read our press release.
Visit our special reports page to read other ITEM Club reports.
