The Ernst & Young ITEM Club
The ITEM Club is the only non-governmental economic forecasting group to use the HM Treasury model of the UK economy. ITEM's forecasts are independent of any political, economic or business bias, providing an impartial benchmark for other private and public economic forecasts. Ernst & Young’s sole sponsorship of the ITEM Club helps meet our clients’ needs for objective economic forecasts in their business planning.
ITEM Club Outlook for Financial Services Spring 2012
The ITEM Club predicts a worsening outlook for banking and insurance
The Ernst & Young ITEM Club Outlook for Financial Services predicts that banking and insurance face a worsening outlook as the real effect of sluggish growth continues to impact creditor and consumer behaviour. However, asset management is forecast to bounce back after a disappointing 2011. Assets under management (AUM) are forecast to grow by 10.7% this year and are on track to hit £1tr by 2015.
For more detail, download the full report 3.1Mb, April 2012
ITEM Club Spring 2012 forecast
ITEM says UK growth is dependent on big business spending its cash
In its Spring 4-year forecast, the ITEM Club says that while monetary policy has probably saved the UK from a double-dip recession, it expects growth of only 0.4% this year. ITEM says that what the economy needs now is for UK companies to invest their substantial cash reserves. The strong recovery in the US is partly due to buoyant business spending, whereas in the UK investment has fallen to 12% below its 2008 level and investment intention surveys suggest it is likely to rise little this year. While ITEM is hopeful that export growth to countries outside Europe will support the economy, prospects for households, jobs, wages and consumer prices remain sombre for this year.
For more detail, read our summary of the ITEM Club’s forecast or download a print-friendly pdf:
The full ITEM Club forecast is available to many of our clients on the Ernst & Young Client Portal.
We expect to publish the ITEM Club's Summer forecast for the UK economy on this page on Monday 16 July 2012.
Other recent reports
ITEM Club Autumn Statement preview
Additional 100,000 public sector job losses in the pipeline, says ITEM Club report
The UK’s labour market is set to receive another blow, according to a report by the ITEM Club, with an additional 100,000 public sector job cuts expected to be forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility.
Read ITEM's Autumn statement preview 2.5Mb, November 2011
Listen to our podcast: Ernst & Young partners, together with the ITEM Club, review the Chancellor's Autumn Statement.
Also read our press release.
ITEM Club Outlook for inflation
Brief respite for UK consumers next year, before inflationary headwinds bite once again, says ITEM Club report
Forecasts show that 2012 will be a better year for UK consumers, with inflation having peaked and expected to dip below 2% in the next 12 months. However, according to a special report by the Ernst & Young ITEM Club, the respite will be short lived. Once the recovery has taken hold, there is a strong chance that inflation will pick up again, eroding real wages.
Read the ITEM Club’s full report on inflation (198K November 2011), and our summary (3Mb November 2011)
Also read our press release.
ITEM Club Outlook for UK Consumer Spending
We expect a slow uneven recovery; the value conscious consumer is here to stay
The UK will not experience a consumer spending led recovery. Our latest research with the ITEM Club shows that expectations of a significant upturn in 2012 are premature. This is mainly due to real disposable income continuing to fall well into 2012, and it will be 2013 before consumer spending reaches pre-recession levels. The long term outlook is also of concern, as growth in consumer spending over the next decade is forecast to be subdued in comparison to the decade preceding the global financial crisis.
Read the ITEM Club's full report on The Outlook for UK Consumer Products (484K May 2011)
Also read our press release.
Visit our
special reports page to read other ITEM Club reports.
