The Ernst & Young ITEM Club - Ernst & Young - United Kingdom

Pre-Budget Report 2010
Visit our  Pre-Budget pages for the latest opinion, news and comment.

Lessons from change ... new business insights from Ernst & Young
This year, we held 40,000 meetings with senior executives across the globe. We asked: how are you managing through the downturn? Then we gathered these insights into a report. Read Lessons from change ( 1.7Mb, October 2009), the latest in our Opportunities in adversity programme, designed to help businesses across the globe act decisively in the downturn.

  All signs point to a winding up of QE
4 February 2010

  Debt pay down neutralises impact of QE
4 February 2010

  Severe weather causes slowdown in services activity
3 February 2010

  Strengthening export demand key factor behind the manufacturing upturn
1 February 2010

  Lending trends remain very weak
1 February 2010

  Commercial property upturn unsustainable says ITEM Club
1 February 2010

  UK finally out of recession
26 January 2010

   Borrowing likely to undershoot Chancellor's projection for this year
21 January 2010

  Strong base effects exerting upward pressure on inflation
19 January 2010

  UK recovery reliant on a roaring trade with the tiger economies
18 January 2010

  Flat manufacturing output comes as a surprise
13 January 2010

  Improved trading conditions for the UK should help to push GDP into positive territory
12 January 2010

  Interest rates to remain at 0.5% until early 2011
7 January 2010

ITEM Club says UK recovery depends on a roaring trade with the tiger economies
In its Winter forecast, the ITEM Club says that after years of relying on domestic spending and overseas borrowing, it is vital that the UK now boosts its overseas earnings. UK companies have spare capacity and are in a strong financial position to benefit from the 23% growth in world trade that ITEM projects over the next three years. But UK export performance has been dire for the last three years, and companies must now get out there and sell, especially to fast-growing economies like China. As it is, the short-term prospects are bleak, with UK GDP growth struggling to reach 1% this year, consumer spending forecast to grow by only 0.4%, and fiscal policy destined to tighten.
 
Read our summary of ITEM's forecast, Economic Outlook for Business  278K, January 2010

Also read our press release and watch Peter Spencer, Chief Economic Adviser to The ITEM Club.

Latest reports

ITEM Club says extra £15bn of fiscal tightening needed
In a special report published in December, the ITEM Club says that an extra £15 billion of fiscal tightening will be necessary if the Chancellor is to meet the Treasury's Budget projections for public borrowing – but ITEM warns that premature or over-aggressive fiscal tightening may damage an already fragile recovery. The report also looks at the £30bn tightening that will be needed after the general election, and whether the emphasis should be on tax increases or cuts in public spending.
 
Read the ITEM Club's report on UK Fiscal Policy   December 2009, 11 pages, 401k 

Also read our press release.

ITEM Club sees bleak outlook for UK house prices
In a special report published in September, the ITEM Club says that the recent rise in house prices is a false dawn, supported by cash buyers and the shortage of properties for sale. The continuing paucity of mortgage funds and tight lending criteria will mean that prices are likely to fall again in 2010 and won't start to pick up until 2011 as the wider economy strengthens. ITEM says it is likely to be more than five years before prices rise back to the peak levels of 2007.
 
Read the ITEM Club's report on the UK Housing Market   September 2009, 9 pages, 436k 

Also read our press release.