GDP figures: Despite economy regaining its pre-crises peak, the Q2 data is a touch disappointing - EY ITEM Club comments

25 July 2014

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  • Despite economy regaining its pre-crises peak, the Q2 data is a touch disappointing…
  • …but upward revisions look likely…
  • …as the disparities between the official and survey data are glaring

John Bulford, economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club, comments on today’s GDP figures:

“The economy appears, at first glance, well on the road to recovery. But any euphoria can be quickly dampened by putting it into a wider context. Several of our peers’ economies – most notably the US and Germany – have long regained their pre-crisis peaks. This is the first post-war economic cycle that sees the UK economy take as long to return to form, and GDP per capita is still well short of 2008 levels.

 “The disparity between official figures, which show manufacturing output growing by just 0.2% and construction contracting by 0.5%, and business survey data, which show both sectors roaring ahead, is glaring. With that in mind, it would not be a surprise to see the Q2 figures revised up in the next release in mid-August.”