EY Eurozone forecast: outlook for financial services

Autumn 2015

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Welcome to the Autumn 2015 edition of the EY Eurozone forecast: outlook for financial services.

Andy Baldwin, EY Head of EMEIA Financial Services
“Welcome to the final edition of our Eurozone forecast: outlook for financial services. We've been mapping the outlook for the Eurozone financial services industry for four years now — a period that's seen unprecedented activity, volatility and change in Europe's Financial Services landscape and some major steps to recover from the financial crisis.”
Andy Baldwin
EMEIA Financial Services Leader
Read Andy's Forecast Overview here

Our autumn 2015 outlook for financial services sees firms responding to better export and consumer demand to increase capital spending. Boosting GDP growth to 1.8% in 2016, marking a high point of recovery. Growth will then begin to ease as the boosts from lower energy prices and a weaker euro fade.

Banking outlook

Our economic outlook highlights how easing credit conditions and a return to growth in new lending to non-financial businesses are positive for the Eurozone economy – enhanced still further by the prospect of net loan growth rising for the first time this year.

Read the full banking viewpoint from Marie-Laure Delarue, EMEIA Banking & Capital Markets Leader.

Insurance outlook

With the low interest rate environment set to remain in place for the next two or three years, investment yields will remain limited – especially given that 70% to 80% of Continental European investments are in bonds. At the same time, insurers in some countries are facing a need to pay high guaranteed bonuses to policyholders, putting further strains on their already depleted reserves.

Read the full insurance viewpoint from Andreas Freiling, Insurance Leader.

Wealth & asset management outlook

While some observers have interpreted the volatility and equity price declines seen over the summer as the first signs of a renewed crisis in global markets, the reality is much less dramatic. What's happening is more a process of correction and rebalancing than a slide back towards 2008-style turmoil.

Read the full wealth & asset management viewpoint viewpoint from Roy Stockell, Wealth & Asset Management Leader.

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EY - Andy Baldwin

Andy Baldwin

EMEIA Financial Services Leader
+44 (0) 207 951 1315

EY - Marie-Laure Delarue

Marie-Laure Delarue

EMEIA Banking & Capital Markets Leader
+33 1 46 93 73 21

EY - Andreas Freiling

Andreas Freiling

EMEIA Insurance Leader
+49 6196 996 27267

EY - Roy Stockell

Roy Stockell

EMEIA and Asia Pacific Wealth & Asset Management Leader
+44 (0) 207 951 0332