The Ernst & Young ITEM Club

The ITEM Club is the only economic forecasting group to use the HM Treasury model of the UK economy. Its forecasts are independent of any political, economic or business bias, providing an impartial benchmark for other private and public economic forecasts. Ernst & Young’s sole sponsorship of the ITEM Club helps meet our clients’ needs for objective economic forecasts in their business planning.

ITEM Club forecasts explore the implications and unpublished assumptions behind Government forecasts and policy measures, and can test whether Government claims are consistent and credible.

The ITEM Club was founded by a group of companies who wanted to obtain economic forecasts focused on business. The ITEM Club's members can discuss each forecast before it is finalised so that it can take account of their current business experience. The Ernst & Young ITEM Club forecasts help our clients achieve their potential. It’s how we make a difference.

ITEM Club says everything hangs on how the credit crisis is managed

The Ernst & Young ITEM Club’s Spring forecast says that the economic outlook depends critically on the Government and the Bank of England finding ways of alleviating the effects of the credit crisis. But with no real solution on the horizon, ITEM expects UK growth to slow to 1.8% this year and 1.5% in 2009. It expects consumer spending to grow by a mere 1% a year in response to falling house prices and home moves, while export growth will perk up in response to the fall in sterling.

Economic Outlook for Business  270K, April 2008

Also read our press release.

Sovereign wealth funds – friend or foe?

In a special report, the ITEM Club looks at Sovereign Wealth Funds and their importance to the UK and Global economies. It discusses how they have grown in scale over the last decade and their likely evolution in the future as well as their impact on global currency movements.

Read the ITEM Club's special report  85K, May 2008

Foreign workers have allowed 3% growth without inflation

A special report by the Ernst & Young ITEM Club, “Migration and the UK economy”, assesses the impact of a decade of economic immigration on the UK economy and forecasts a decline in growth if that flow of foreign labour is switched off.

Read our press release.

Higher oil prices will damage any potential economic recovery

Research by Ernst & Young ITEM Club predicts that permanently high oil prices have the potential to snuff out any moderate recovery in the UK and Global economies in 2009 and 2010 and looks how varying oil prices will impact on different economic indicators.

Read the press release.