Latest commentary

 ITEM Club comments on today's interest rate decision
8 January 2009

 Interest rate comment from ITEM
7 January 2009

 Services sector still shrinking fast
6 January 2009

 Plummeting global oil prices could boost UK economy but it's a double-edge sword
5 January 2009

 Manufacturing activity continues to contract sharply
2 January 2009

 Housing market activity hits new lows
2 January 2009

 GDP revised down and current account gap widens
23 December 2008

 Tectonic shifts in global capital over the next decade
22 December 2008

 Recession hitting Treasury coffers
18 December 2008

 MPC likely to cut rates by 100bp in January
17 December 2008

 Shocking jump in claimant count unemployment
17 December 2008

 Inflation set to tumble
16 December 2008

 Manufacturing recession deepens
9 December 2008

 Producer input price inflation dives
8 December 2008

 This recession is gathering momentum
3 December 2008

 Comment on interest rate decision tomorrow
3 December 2008

 Manufacturing in the doldrums
1 December 2008

Quarterly forecasts

ITEM Club forecasts recession through to second half of 2009

In its Autumn forecast, the ITEM Club says that the UK is entering inevitable recession, with GDP forecast to shrink by 1% over 2009, followed by a slow recovery to just 1% growth over 2010. Even if recent government rescues have pulled us back from the brink, a lot of damage has been done and the availability of credit will improve only very slowly. Corporate profitability has been hit by rising commodity prices, and business confidence is at its lowest since the 1990s. Widespread reductions in investment and employment are now inevitable, maintaining the squeeze on household budgets. However, with lower commodity prices and interest rates, the ITEM Club says that the recession in the wider community should not be severe.

Read our summary of ITEM's forecast Economic Outlook for Business  270K, Oct 2008

Also read our press release and
watch Peter Spencer.

Latest reports

Plummeting global oil prices could boost UK economy but it's a double-edge sword

Ernst & Young ITEM Club research forecasts that falling oil prices, one of the few bright spots for British consumers this winter, could provide a further substantial boost to the economy in the next 3 years but might also spark deflation. Find out more.
5 January 2009

Tectonic shifts in global capital over the next decade

The Ernst & Young ITEM Club has released a research note, For Richer, For Poorer – Global Patterns of Wealth, on the impact of continued economic growth in the emerging markets in the next decade. Commenting on the findings, Mark Otty, Area Managing Partner EMEIA at Ernst & Young says, “Companies and governments in the developed world have to face up to the reality that there will be a further shift in the economic balance of power in the years ahead”. Find out more.
22 December 2008

2009: A tough year for the Scottish economy

Scotland is entering its first ever services sector-led recession with its weakest performance since the early 1980s, according to the Ernst & Young Scottish ITEM Club annual forecast.

However, the Scottish ITEM Club predicts that Scotland will suffer a less pronounced contraction next year than the rest of the UK. It also expects Scotland to outstrip UK growth in 2010, before falling back in 2011.

Read the Ernst & Young Scottish ITEM Club 2009 forecast 4.6Mb, November 2008

Also read the full press release.

The taxpayer will foot the bill as Government borrowing soars

In a research note the Ernst & Young ITEM Club says that the slowdown in the economy over the last year has finally exposed the dire state of the public sector finances and that the Treasury will now be one of the biggest losers from the credit crunch and the recession.

Read our press release and ITEM Club November Special Focus  November 2008