The Ernst & Young ITEM Club - Ernst & Young - United Kingdom

  Services activity stable
3 July 2009

  Manufacturing sector improving slowly
1 July 2009 

  Big downward revision to GDP
30 June 2009 

  Progress on bank lending remains painfully slow
29 June 2009 

 Dismal public finaces
18 June 2009 

 Unanimous vote to keep policy unchanged
17 June 2009 

 Labour market deterioration slows
17 June 2009

  Inflation stuck above target
16 June 2009 

  Mixed data – IP and manufacturing and international trade figures
10 June 2009 

  It’s a slow grind from here – Scottish ITEM Club
8 June 2009 

  No surprises from Bank this month
4 June 2009 

  Services activity in positive territory
3 June 2009

  The market may be stabilising but we are unlikely to see house prices recover in the short term
2 June 2009 

  PMI manufacturing improves
1 June 2009 

  Significant consumer retrenchment is underway
22 May 2009

  MPC recognises potential need for more QE
20 May 2009

  Inflation falling but still above target
19 May 2009

Rebalancing the UK economy: a long time coming
This special report from the ITEM Club pinpoints a failure to address global imbalances as the main reason for the global recession, with the UK's dependence on financial services having made it particularly vulnerable. ITEM says the challenge now is to rebalance the UK economy to avoid a recurrence of recent upheavals once the recession ends. While restructuring and appropriate regulation should ensure sustainable and better-balanced growth, the Club says that the UK needs to encourage expansion in high-value manufacturing and services, and it highlights a potential skills shortage for the upturn as the UK loses its appeal to migrant workers.

Read the ITEM Club's report  Rebalancing the UK Economy  May 2009, 13 pages, 460k 

Also read our press release .

Quarterly forecasts 


ITEM Club sees first signs of stability and confidence returning

In its Spring forecast, the ITEM Club identifies signs that the financial situation is stabilising and credit conditions and confidence are starting to improve, partly in response to the vast resources which government has thrown at the problems.


Read our summary of ITEM's forecast, Economic Outlook for Business  242K, April 2009

Also read our press release and watch Peter Spencer.

  Grim news now but a brighter future?
The Republic of Ireland is in a technical  depression according to a study published today by the first all-Island economic forecasting unit – the Ernst & Young Economic Eye.
20 May 2009