EY Scottish ITEM Club Forecast 2017

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Scotland’s economy to slow but cities remain centres for growth

  • Scotland’s output growth revised down to 0.7% for 2016 by EY Scottish ITEM Club
  • Scotland’s GDP forecast to fall to 0.4% in 2017, compared with 0.8% for the UK as a whole
  • Economic growth in Edinburgh and Glasgow set to outpace Scotland through 2016 to 2019
  • Inverness, Perth and Stirling’s labour markets to outperform Scottish average in 2016
  • Business investment and government policy vital to long-term growth

The growth of Scotland’s economy will be much slower over the next couple of years as existing headwinds are compounded by political and economic uncertainty, according to the EY Scottish ITEM Club 2017 Forecast.

The report predicts Scottish output growth for 2016 to be 0.7% and forecasts 0.4% for 2017. This compares with UK GDP growth rates of 1.9% and 0.8% respectively. Modest growth is expected to return from 2018, but the future outlook will depend on the economic landscape as shaped by Brexit, potential policy changes brought by a Trump presidency, and the implementation of extended powers to the Scottish Government over tax and revenue spend.


EY Scottish ITEM Club Forecast 2017

Infographic: Economic growth in London and the South of England will continue to outpace the rest of the UK to 2018