Labour market data point to limited impact of Brexit so far - EY ITEM Club comments

17 August 2016

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  • Labour market data points to no obvious Brexit effect…
  • …with claimant count rate seeing a surprise fall in July
  • Labour market tends to react to developments in the wider economy, rather than lead them

 Martin Beck, senior economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club, comments:

“Marginal changes to the labour market data suggest that Brexit has had a limited impact so far. However, it is likely to be several months before we see any material impact from the referendum result on the labour market. Heightened uncertainty may lead some firms to be more cautious about hiring, however, labour market indicators generally react to developments in the wider economy, rather than lead them.

“The only indicators providing a window on the performance of the labour market in July offered contrasting messages. The claimant count was down 8,600 on the month and job vacancies also fell.

“There was also an up-tick in pay growth to an eight-month high of 2.4%. However, this still ranks as pretty disappointing given the boost pay should have received from April’s introduction of the National Living Wage.”

ENDS

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