Overall regional performance: post-IPO share price has improved across regions
The Americas region saw an outstanding 159% increase in proceeds, raising US$19.3b, YOY for the initial three quarters of 2023. Out of the 113 America's IPOs this year, 96 of them stemmed from the US. The US is also the only market that has attracted more cross-border IPOs and is welcoming long-awaited blockbuster IPOs. Special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) IPO activity thus far in 2023 has hit a seven-year low in terms of proceeds, falling to levels not seen since 2016. While the traditional IPO market shows signs of recovery, SPAC IPO activity is likely to be muted in the near term as the focus shifts to completing or unwinding those yet to de-SPAC.
The initial nine months of 2023 present a mixed picture for Asia-Pacific IPOs, with volume and proceeds down YOY by 8% and 41%, respectively, even though the region presents an approximate 60% share of global market share. Governments across most of the region are trying hard to stimulate economic growth and IPO activity through initiatives such as reducing stamp duty taxes. Also, due to economic challenges in key markets, Asia-Pacific saw fewer deals than in the past two years. There is general optimism over large deals in the pipeline, with an expected modest uptick in IPOs next quarter.
Since the start of the year, EMEIA saw 286 IPOs, which raised US$21.9b, a YOY increase of 2% in volume but a 44% reduction in proceeds. EMEIA-based stock markets have adapted to a “new normal” amid tightening in financial conditions and market liquidity, and stayed surprisingly robust and stable, with investors displaying increased confidence. A distinct trend in EMEIA is the growing interest in IPOs in the energy sector, along with environmental, social and governance (ESG)-related equity stories.
Q4 2023 outlook: new interest rate environment
Faced with tighter liquidity and a higher cost of capital, investors are turning to companies with strong fundamentals and a path to profitability. In response, IPO prospects need to demonstrate their financial health and potential for value creation. As valuation gaps narrow, investors are reviewing the post-listing performance of the new cohort of IPOs, which, if positive, could renew market confidence.
Across major Western economies, interest rates are forecast to stay high as central banks try to bring persistent inflation down to target levels. Consequently, the cost of capital remains elevated which, along with tighter credit, makes financing more challenging.
Investors will continue to care more about the fundamentals, such as a strong balance sheet, healthy cash flows, resilience amid weak economic conditions, rather than how fast the company can grow and how high the valuation could reach. Investors are also likely to be more interested in companies with an ESG concept and those that can demonstrate the adoption of AI applications into the business models and operations.
IPO candidates will need to be agile with innovative business models, be resilient when facing supply chain constraints and macroeconomic challenges, have strong working capital and be able to adapt to new ways of doing business by embracing technology and AI applications.
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Summary
The global IPO market in the first three quarters of 2023 has seen shifting dynamics featuring improved market sentiment in the western countries, the prospect of successful US mega IPOs, robust emerging markets, and a cooling China IPO market. As investors shift their preference from growth to value, IPO prospects need to demonstrate their financial health and potential for value creation.