How geopolitical uncertainty and trade tensions plagued 2019 IPO landscape

Our Q4 2019 trends report reveals that 2019 was a lackluster year for IPOs, but 2020 could be set to rebound.

Geopolitical uncertainty and trade tensions heavily impacted the 2019 IPO landscape, pushing overall IPO activity down in terms of both deals and proceeds. 2019 has registered 1,115 IPOs with proceeds of US$198b – a 19% fall in deal volume and a 4% decrease in proceeds compared to 2018.

However, as US-China-EU trade tensions, concerns about economic growth and other geopolitical issues – including Brexit and social unrest in Hong Kong – subside, a healthy increase in IPO activity is expected in 2020, particularly in the first half of the year.

Looking ahead, several uncertainties will subside in 2020. Trade tensions between the US, China and the EU; the outcome of Brexit; and uncertainty with respect to the stability of some European economies will fade in early 2020 and will positively impact overall IPO sentiment.

A healthy pipeline of IPO candidates means that within the right transaction window, IPO activity will pick up across all regions, particularly in the Americas where a number of large unicorns are expected to launch their IPOs in the US in the first half of 2020. This should see 2020 deal numbers and proceeds exceed 2019 levels.

Americas IPO activity falls amid geopolitical and trade uncertainty

With 213 IPOs raising US$53.9b, deal volumes and proceeds of Americas IPO markets in 2019 fell compared to 2018 numbers by 20% and 10%, respectively. The US remained in the spotlight as the leading source of IPOs in 2019, accounting for 77% of Americas IPOs and 93% by proceeds, including 24 unicorn IPOs.

Canada’s Toronto Stock Exchange and Venture Exchange saw 18 IPOs, which raised US$295m, accounting for 8% of Americas IPO deals. Brazil’s B3 exchange posted 5 IPOs over the year, with proceeds of US$2.3b, and Chile posted 2 IPOs, with total proceeds of US1.1b.

“Although the US has dominated IPO activity across the Americas in 2019, Brazil contributed more than US$2b in IPO proceeds to Americas totals during 2019, while Chile’s two real estate IPOs pushed their totals up,” says Jackie Kelley, EY Americas IPO Leader. By volume, Canada contributed with 17 small and mid-size IPOs, accounting for 8% of Americas deal numbers. As we look to 2020, we expect an active IPO environment across the region.”

Asia-Pacific IPO markets remain resilient

Asia-Pacific continued to dominate global IPO activity, accounting for seven of the top ten exchanges globally by deal number and five of the top ten exchanges by proceeds in 2019. However, 2019 deal volumes (668 deals) were down by 1% versus 2018 and proceeds (US$89.9b) were down by 8% as geopolitical and trade tensions took their toll on global IPO activity.

Due to the early success of Shanghai’s STAR market, Mainland China saw an increase in IPO activity in Q4 2019, which pushed 2019 deals volumes past 2018 by 89% (197 deals) and proceeds by 69% (US$35.7b).

The Hong Kong Stock Exchange saw a 25% decline by deal number (154 IPOs), but a 4% increase by proceeds (US$37.9b).