Podcast transcript: Why tech leaders need to get ready for quantum?

VO: This audio feature is part of EY's "Quantum intersection" research programme.

Megan Wright:

That’s Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. His response went viral when a member of the press attempted to stump him with a question about quantum computing back in 2016.

Six years later, the fact remains: while many are familiar with the concept of quantum computing, its widespread commercial application is yet to be realised. 

I’m Megan Wright, senior editor at Longitude. 

The goal of this audio feature is simple: to consider the growth trajectory for quantum computing and the opportunities it holds for UK businesses. 

So exactly what potential does quantum computing hold? 

Here’s Ohio Congressman Bob Latta briefing members of the Energy and Commerce Subcommittee in 2018.

Bob Latta:

This involves harnessing the power of physics at its most basic level. Unlike the computers we are familiar with, we use today, a quantum computer holds the potential to be faster and more powerful. This innovation is expected to change every industry and make problems that are impossible to solve today something that can be solved in a matter of days or weeks.

Steve Brierley:  

Hi, I'm Steve Brierley, CEO and founder of Riverlane. 

So, I got obsessed by quantum mechanics as an undergraduate. There’s this amazing theory of physics, this model of the world that describes so much of what's around us. And so these equations of motion, they're just hugely successful in predicting the world around us. And back then the idea of using quantum mechanics to build a computer or to build a computer that exploited these weird and wonderful effects seemed pretty wild and so what's happened over the past 20 years is really remarkable. We've got to the point where now we can control or companies can control individual atoms in order to build a quantum computer.

Megan Wright:

All this progress and potential inspired Steve to found his company, Riverlane. 

Steve Brierley:

So at Riverlane, we are making quantum computers useful sooner. And the way we do that is by solving quantum error correction. So this is a key engineering challenge in how we get from the quantum computers we have today to the quantum computers we need in order to achieve and implement some of the really exciting applications that quantum computers are going to be able to solve.

Building a quantum computer is not like 10% faster GPU or something. It's like a, it's a new, completely new challenge. There are a lot of new things about it, it's much more like trying to land on the moon or something, and that level of engineering challenge has a lot of important implications like it's really important that we, as a company, figure out how to move quickly.

Megan Wright:

Just how distant then is the quantum future for UK businesses? 

A recent study conducted by EY in partnership with Longitude found that nearly half of business executives believe quantum will play a significant role in their industry by 2025. 

The vast majority say quantum computing will disrupt their industry—as well as the UK economy—to some extent by 2027.

But for those operating in the field, the answer might not be so clear cut. 

Mira Pijselman:

So the opportunities posed by quantum technologies, as well as some of the ongoing engineering challenges mean that it's unlikely that there's going to be a clear point at which quantum uniformly disrupts businesses and broader society. 

My name is Mira Pijselman. I'm a senior consultant with EY’s technology risk practice, where I specifically focus on helping clients with data governance engagements, trusted AI engagements, as well as focusing on thought leadership about quantum ethics and the future for quantum technologies in the UK and around the world.

Megan Wright:

Mira warns that it’s important for businesses to cut through the hype. 

She says, leaders need to be realistic about the timelines associated with quantum maturity as businesses work to explore, experiment, and maximise on the opportunity for future quantum advantage. 

Mira Pijselman:

Based on current market signals, which include things like the public announcement of more quantum use cases, a focus on how to build a robust talent pipeline with respect to quantum technologies, increased policy attention and investment in quantum business and scholarship, I think it's fair to say that businesses should expect some level of disruption in the next three to five years.

Megan Wright:

At this point you may find yourself thinking: that’s great, but what does this mean for my business? How does my organisation stand to benefit from the promise of quantum computing? 

Philip Intallura:      

What people usually mean by the question of how far are we away, is how long will it be before we see something that is commercially useful? And that's a harder question to answer. And the reality is that we have to constantly monitor how quickly progress is being made towards key technological milestones. So for example, when will we see the demonstration of the first logical qubit? When will we see proven reductions in error rates? Is there evidence of commercial, not just technical, quantum advantage? 

Megan Wright:

Meet Philip Intallura, Global Business Lead for Quantum Computing at HSBC.

As quantum computing moves from theoretical opportunity to business advantage, Philip says history could prove to be a useful predictor of future outcomes. 

Philip Intallura:

It's pretty helpful actually, to look back at the history of classical electronic computing. And if we compare that with quantum computing, which is relatively at the beginning. It was in the early 1980s when Richard Feynman suggested if we want to simulate a quantum system, we should use a quantum system to perform that simulation. And theorists thought about that for about 10 to 15 years before we started to see the first algorithms for search factoring, quantum annealing and adiabatic quantum computing.

We've seen Google publish quantum advantage in 2019. And currently IBM's got 127 qubits available through its system Eagle, and I expect we'll get over 1000 cubits in the next couple of years.

Megan Wright:

In fact, research shows the potential use cases for quantum computing in the financial services sector is broad - and growing. 

In the near term, many are focused on using available technologies to compute common problems. 

For financial firms, Philip says, portfolio optimisation offers a near-term opportunity for two reasons: It has been difficult to classically compute due to its complexity and asset combinations can be fairly well simulated on the quantum inspired technologies available today. 

Looking further ahead use cases addressing areas such as option pricing and risk analysis are allowing financial firms to test small scale quantum algorithms on simulators or the cloud. 

Philip Intallura:

I think there's a whole bunch of use cases that we're exploring, but one of the ones I find most interesting is around fraud detection in payment transactions. And so with this one, you can use quantum machine learning, for example, to train your fraud detection models more effectively, which could result in fewer false positives and fewer false negatives. So what does that mean?

Well, fewer false negatives means that there are less losses because you are detecting more fraudulent transactions and you're stopping them. And fewer false positives is all about stopping fewer transactions that are genuine, but you've inadvertently stopped because it appears to be fraudulent. So if we can do that, it means it's less disruptive for customer transactions, so it's a better customer experience.

So that use case really excites me because there's so many advantages and it's a fairly well understood problem as well. And I think that's the sort of use case where we're very, very excited to see the potential of where quantum technologies can take us for real world applications that's going to have impacts on stakeholders and customers.

Megan Wright:

In discovery-focused sectors, such as manufacturing and pharmaceuticals, quantum computing also offers generous opportunities. 

Riverlane’s Steve Brierley explains.

Steve Brierley:

So the easiest way to find early applications in of quantum computers is to say, well, which industry has got left behind by the first digital revolution, right? Which ones still do discovery? Discovery by lab processes, by trial and error and so drug discovery, materials discovery, the discovery of new catalysts and so the manufacturing industry or areas where there's a lot of materials designed going on, the production of things like fertiliser, these are all industries where quantum computing could have a really big impact and where quantum computers have an unfair advantage.

So the challenge of adopting a new technology like quantum is that it opens up a new way of designing a product, right? So a new way of operating if you like. So in the pharmaceutical industry, there's a huge amount of cost associated with failure at late stage trials and if we could use computers to better predict future outcomes of trials, that could have a really outsized impact, but that relies on us to kind of prove that, right? So, are you going to take a medicine where the only tests are computer simulations? I think, ultimately, we will get to that point, but it's going to take many, many years and would require huge number of proof points that are sort of not about technology, but around demonstrating that this really does work.

And so I think for some of these application areas that we're talking about, there's a massive opportunity to really change how drugs are discovered or to go from discovery to design, but that's going to be much more than just a technology problem. That's the sort of confidence and experience problem too.

Megan Wright:

And although quantum computers aren’t yet commercially viable, there are a few key messages businesses should note. Philip Intallura again. 

Philip Intallura:    

Firstly, that quantum computing is real. Second, it's moving from discovery to practical application and that takes time and engineering. There's a huge hardware race going on at the moment and we don't yet know which quantum technology will prevail. So getting a deep understanding of how to construct problems in a quantum mechanical way and link them to the right use cases will take time and deep understanding. It's not something that's going to happen overnight. So, rather than think about when will quantum computing become commercially viable, I prefer to think about when will we be organisationally ready for when quantum computing becomes commercially viable, because of that I am certain.

Megan Wright:

What do we mean by organisational readiness for quantum computing? 

There are certainly risks and challenges that businesses must consider as part of their strategic approach to quantum.

But there are also areas they can be investing in today, such as skills development, to become future-ready.

One important challenge to be met is building trust, as EY’s Mira Pijselman explains.

Mira Pijselman:

So how can we enable a quantum ecosystem that is trusted by businesses, by governments, by consumers, and by broader society? And I would argue that establishing a trusted quantum ecosystem and one where trust is not just demanded but earned entails an investment in a continuous practice and refinement of technology foresight and responsible innovation.

I think when we look at other disruptive and emerging technologies, such as when AI was still up and coming, we really missed the boat when it came to establishing ethics in how we designed, deployed, and managed AI systems. And I think that because of those mistakes that were made in the past with AI, with big data more generally, organisations are more aware about the risks of not getting things right and not enabling trust in the technologies that they are either using or deploying to the public. And likewise consumers are more alert and aware to those types of risks and they are using their purchasing power to go towards organisations that are operating in their best interests and in the best interests of the planet.

Megan Wright:

So how are early adopters of quantum computing preparing? And what can others learn from them?

Mira Pijselman:

Businesses can start to prepare for a quantum transition and the enablement of quantum governance and oversight by expanding upon their existing governance functions in areas such as data governance and AI governance. 

Megan Wright:

In fact, 56% of survey respondents say their company needs to pay greater attention to developing an effective governance approach for quantum computing. 

Mira Pijselman:    

So one thing that I think we've definitely learned from AI development and the history kind of AI ethics and some of the missteps that have occurred there, is the importance of making a space for end users in the development and operationalization of the ethics of emerging technologies and in this case, quantum ethics.

So to use a hypothetical as an example, if you ask the question, who is best suited to solving a problem in the agricultural sector pertaining to livestock health: a data scientist or a farmer? The data scientist has the tools to develop a solution, but given their distance from the end users, they are unlikely to intimately understand the problem in the same way as the farmer does. And if you can't understand the problem, you cannot hope to find the solution - even less one that can be considered ethical. Engaging in dialogue with academic communities, the public, government bodies, and industry peers will really be essential to make informed decisions on quantum programmes. And the emphasis I think, needs to be on learning how we can function as an ecosystem. And this does not just include those that are building the systems. It definitely includes individuals that will be affected by those systems.

Megan Wright:

For today’s business, fostering a strong talent pipeline at all levels will also prove critical to future success. Here’s Mira again. 

Mira Pijselman:

Now we've seen an uptick in academic programmes within the UK and elsewhere in the world with a distinct focus on quantum technologies at the postgraduate level. We know that people are graduating or will soon be graduating with desirable and necessary quantum knowledge. But the focus now needs to be on establishing programmes to attract and retain individuals with skills in things like quantum information theory, quantum physics, linear algebra, and computer science. 

They're necessary, but ultimately not sufficient to enabling a trusted quantum ecosystem. So organisations will also need to adopt, attract, and retain a complementary talent pipeline of graduates that are engaged in the social and environmental impacts of technology. So I call these types of individuals socio-technical talent. And these are people that have backgrounds in perhaps non-traditional disciplines compared to most STEM-oriented people. So things like maybe environmental governance or philosophy, social sciences, degrees that really foster a profound ability to think critically and think differently from those individuals with a more technical skill set.

And I think this is one of the areas where organisations often fall short. I think that there is such a big focus on how do we get individuals in the room who know how to build this and who know how to technically perhaps understand the underlying quantum mechanical properties and the physical aspects of quantum computing or other quantum technologies. But the worry that I have is that there's not enough focus at present on how do we actually ensure that the types of use cases that are being applied to quantum technologies are in alignment with what the need of our generation is as well as future generations.

Megan Wright:

And while quantum may not directly impact all industries - in the near term at least - adopting a wait-and-see approach could prove the riskiest strategy of all.

Here’s HSBC’s Philip Intallura again. 

Philip Intallura:

Organisations that follow the wait and see philosophy, will effectively put themselves at a competitive disadvantage when quantum computers become commercially useful. So what's most important now is that organisations are strategic in what they invest in, to best prepare themselves for quantum readiness.

We've spoken a lot about quantum computing today, but the other key part of quantum is the more malicious use of quantum through the threat that quantum computers pose to decrypting public encryption methods that are commonly used today. So, some industries and some companies may not have the types of problem that fit well with quantum, but they may have to think about their cybersecurity approach, given that this technology is emerging now. That threat isn't here now, but it will be here.

Ultimately, it's a bet we think is worth making. So, in terms of our intentions, our purpose is to harness quantum, to ultimately unlock competitive advantage and improve customer experience. And a core part of our strategy is to build quantum readiness that covers facets like training, technical skill-building, use case development and access to premium hardware that will let us run experiments.

Megan Wright:

From risks and challenges to opportunities and rewards - there’s so much potential waiting to be unleashed through quantum computing. 

And while it may be a tricky thing to get your head around right now, there’s no denying the quantum opportunity: for businesses, for society, for the world. 

A final word from Riverlane founder Steve Brierley.  

Steve Brierley:

I would say, so Dirac, in the 1920s wrote this wonderful line where, so he wrote down the equations of quantum mechanics and he says, "And thus we have solved the whole of chemistry and a large part of physics." And so, kind of going back to this original point that quantum mechanics solves so much of the world around us, I think the impact of that is just, is to some extent, incomprehensible because it's very similar to where we were 50 years ago with the invention of the computer. It's an amazing tool. Quantum computers will be an amazing tool that will transform multiple industries, change how we can develop new drugs, change... Will result in completely new materials.

Imagine just thinking about the property of a material that you wanted and then reverse engineering that, and trying to figure out and be able to use computer simulation to then develop an efficient process for building that material. So I think the potential is really huge as long as we understand that getting there is going to be really hard so that's why it's really exciting. Lots of big challenges, but a really big potential.

Special credits for this audio feature go to the Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics and C-SPAN.

VO: This audio feature is part of EY's "Quantum intersection" research programme. It is produced by Longitude, a Financial Times company, in partnership with EY. Thank you for listening.