Early indicators of the industry’s future
Electric transportation is an unstoppable force. On a straight cost and performance basis, EVs will soon be competitive with ICE-powered vehicles. But there’s more to the equation than cost and performance. Consumers’ reactions to new technologies can vary dramatically.
Major questions remain. First, it’s not known how quickly consumers will become convinced of the advantages of EVs. And how will oil and gasoline prices unfold? The technology is constantly improving. Costs are falling, and competition may lower the price of liquid fuel. And second, there’s no clear plan in place for building, at scale, the infrastructure required to charge EVs.
We’ve boiled down the various uncertainties to four potential adoption curves, shown in the accompanying chart, based on the timing of the transition from liquid fuels to electricity and the rate at which the transition occurs. The adoption curve in the Long Goodbye scenario is steep, and the curve in the Meet me in Paris scenario, steeper still.
Acceptance of EVs