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Game changers

EY Attractiveness Survey
June 2018

The reality of foreign investment in Europe in 2017

  • Europe secured 6,653 FDI projects, up 10%, creating 353,469 jobs
  • The UK leads though Brexit fears bite, Germany is a close second and FDI into France surges
  • FDI into CEE slows, as investors look further south and east
  • Investors’ confidence in Europe remains high

The number of foreign investment projects in Europe increased by 10% in 2017

Economic recovery has lifted demand within Europe, whilst growth elsewhere has bolstered demand for its exports. FDI has been spurred by tightening capacity and product renewal, and facilitated by low interest rates.

Europe is resilient among global and regional tensions

The business leaders we surveyed in February 2018 continue to highlight Europe as the world’s most attractive region for foreign investment.

The European economy has been growing at its fastest rate for a decade.

Spending by European consumers has been resilient despite higher inflation in 2017, underpinned by strong employment growth. Europe’s Economic Sentiment Indicator remains above its long-term average and lending has been growing.

According to the April 2018 edition of EY Global Capital Confidence Barometer, Western Europe – along with the US – has become a destination choice for companies looking to acquire innovative assets and more customers, even as they shrug off worries over protectionism and new rules governing cross-border dealmaking.

Record year for FDI projects, with growth falling to single digit

FDI projects in Europe

EY - Record year for FDI projects, with growth falling to single digit

Source: analysis based on IBM database, 2017; EY European Investment Monitor, 2016.

In general, which of the following regions do you think are currently the top three most attractive regions in which to establish operations?

EY - In general, which of the following regions do you think are currently the top three most attractive regions in which to establish operations?

Source: EY Attractiveness Survey Europe June 2018 (total respondents: 502)

China rises, America falters

China edged up four points to take second place overall in our perceptions survey, but North America slipped to fourth position, with a 34% score down from 39% in 2017. Foreign investors there are struggling to distinguish between deeds and rhetoric, and long-term and short-term counter-influences in policies that profoundly affect US investment attractiveness. They worry about moves toward trade protectionism and access to talent.

The new pace and regional dynamics of foreign investment within Europe

The accelerating pace of growth in projects recorded over the past three years (averaging annual growth of +15%) has slowed markedly (+10% between 2016 and 2017).

Brexit and the maturity of Western economies

Western Europe was chosen by foreign companies for the location of 5,032 projects in 2017, more than three-quarters of Europe’s total. The increase, 7%, was far below the scorching 20% growth in projects announced during 2016.

In addition, Europe’s top two destinations for foreign investment, the UK and Germany underperformed in 2017. Together, these two attracted 36% of European FDI projects over the past three years.

In the UK, until recently the leading European FDI destination, growth in project inflows slowed to 6%. The UK’s decision to leave the European Union has influenced decisions, spurred project outflows, and eroded Europe’s total.

In Germany, surging growth in project numbers has eased. On average, foreign investment into Germany grew by 14% a year between 2012 and 2016. Last year it rose just +6%.

However, for business leaders interviewed by EY, Western Europe was not only the first choice, but 53% also ranked it among the top three destinations for investment worldwide, unchanged from 2017. Back in 2008, on the eve of the financial crisis, Western Europe had fallen to third place in our perceptions survey, but it has progressively regained investors’ confidence since 2012 as economic recovery has spread.

Talent shortage and rising costs in Central Europe

Central European economies are closing the gap with their western counterparts. They benefit from rising wages, growing consumer markets and more added-value projects, but face increasing shortages of qualified workers. For labor intensive projects investors increasingly explore further south and east. In Russia, Serbia and Turkey investment projects grew by 50% in 2017.

For executives interviewed in our perception survey, CEE was the second most-popular first-choice destination for future investments, and third overall, its best score for a decade. Their assessment of CEE’s future prospects was reflected in their 2017 project decisions. Last year FDI in Poland created 24,000 jobs, an uptick of 2,000 over 2016.

The European foreign investment map is changing

Europe’s three largest economies, Germany, France and the UK, each secured more than 1,000 projects and together almost 50% of all FDI projects.

The UK is feeling the effects of Brexit. It remains the top destination for FDI in 2017, attracting 1,205 projects. That was only 6% more than it attracted in 2016, a slowdown after very strong growth in earlier years.

Germany continues to challenge the UK, but strong growth in project numbers recorded in recent years has slowed.

France enjoyed surging project numbers (+31%) and has now become a direct competitor to Germany and the UK across the project spectrum.

A re-shuffle in country rankings show investment shifting further east

EY - Significant reshuffle in the countries’ rankings

Source: analysis based on IBM database, 2017; EY European Investment Monitor, 2016

A change in the methodology in the current EAS edition makes it difficult to compare YoY trends for Poland. Assessment of investment activities should also account for other dimensions of this process. In particular, the value of the Polish Investment and Trade Agency projects (PAIH) included in the EAS results for Poland increased in 2017 compared to 2016.

In our perceptions survey, Paris is ahead of London for the first time

For the first time since our investor survey began in 2003 Paris overtakes London to become Europe’s most attractive destination for foreign investors. From its 54% peak in 2014, London’s attractiveness has declined to 34% in 2018.

Which are the three most attractive European cities for foreign investors?

EY - Which are the three most attractive European cities for foreign investors?

Source: EY Attractiveness Survey Europe June 2018 (total respondents: 502)

Investors cool on some countries, without alarm

The Netherlands remains a favorite with investors, yet we measured a 17% fall in investment inflows.

Spain, despite strong growth, high unemployment and affordable labor, has been politically overshadowed by the attempted break-away of Catalonia, its leading industrial region. After a rapid recovery of FDI inflows in recent years, shortages of specific skills may also be making investors cautious.

After years of intense activity, FDI in some central European countries appears to have reached a tipping point. The region’s twin engines of growth — manufacturing and shared service centers — are now slowing in terms of project numbers (down 40% and 26% respectively) — though still creating more than 18,000 jobs.

Which investors are doing what and where?

Incremental changes are reshaping what companies do

Transportation manufacturers and suppliers were the biggest job creators; but digital remains the biggest business sector by number of projects, as well as a leading job creator. Business services ranks second. Our data suggests that rising demand is accompanied by a wide-ranging re-organization of the way companies do business. Digitalization is revolutionizing almost every industry, and foreign investors are launching numerous projects to provide digital services to their clients or streamline their own operations.

Four noteworthy figures regarding manufacturing, software, research and finance:

  • Manufacturing projects were 30% of the total, up 27% from 2016, and provided nearly half of FDI jobs.
  • Digital surges to 18% of FDI projects.
  • R&D projects jumped 26% and created 27,279 jobs, a marked improvement in an activity where Europe previously lagged.
  • Brexit triggered an intense battle to host 342 financial FDI projects.

Europe’s traditional industrial sectors score solid growth

EY - Europe’s traditional industrial sectors score solid growth

Source: analysis based on IBM database, 2017; EY European Investment Monitor, 2016

European companies find cross-border opportunities in their own backyard

Ten of the top 15 investors in Europe, by country, are European. They launched 42% of inbound FDI projects in 2017. Clearly many mid-sized companies are still developing their presence across Europe’s single market.

German companies lead and notably in manufacturing (launching +17% more manufacturing projects in 2017). French companies reined back, but cross-border investments by UK companies surged 35% last year, especially to Germany (110 projects, up 83%) and France (79 projects, up 46%). Cross-border investments in financial services by UK companies increased by 93%, to 54 projects. Some British investors are building their presence elsewhere in the EU ahead of Brexit.

US companies remain Europe’s biggest fans. Japan and China provide the continent’s keenest Asian investors, and each accounted for more than 320 projects in 2017. Indian companies are mounting a catch-up, launching 170 projects.

Overall, companies from Asia-Pacific invested in 22% more European FDI projects in 2017. Investment from Asia-Pacific is on an upswing too from Australia (91 projects, up 30%), South Korea (88 projects, up 80%) and Hong Kong (43 projects, up 19%).

Europe maintains leadership, while Asia-Pacific pick up

EY - FDI projects by origin

Source: analysis based on IBM database, 2017; EY European Investment Monitor, 2016


Client Viewpoint

A new France
Pascal Cagni | Ambassador for International Investment – France

EY Viewpoint

Journeying towards higher value added jobs
Marek Rozkrut | Partner, EY Poland Chief Economist, Head of Economic Analysis Team


Game changers for foreign investment in 2018

Geopolitical risk is now investors’ top concern
Brexit: 30% of Europe’s international investors will be impacted
Talent scarcity and technology reshape investment patterns
Changing trade and tax regimes challenge investor planning
  • Game changer 1: Geopolitical instability is perceived as the biggest risk

    Our survey shows that global and regional geopolitical instability is ranked the gravest risk by investors as they weigh investing in Europe over the next three years. Geopolitical factors were the top concern of 39% of investors. In larger companies (€1.5b+ revenues) nearly half of executives worry about geopolitical risks. Instability and populism within Europe were also high among investor concerns. Investors are paying increasing attention to the health of democracy in prospective investment locations.

    What are the three main risks affecting the attractiveness of Europe in the next 3 years?

    EY - What are the three main risks affecting the attractiveness of Europe in the next 3 years?

    Source: EY Attractiveness Survey Europe June 2018 (total respondents: 502)

  • Game changer 2: Brexit will likely impact 30% of foreign investors in Europe

    Investors with a pan-European footprint will find that Brexit affects specific parts of their activities: 30% of the international investors we questioned said Brexit would have an impact on their business. Half of those who said yes were interviewed in the UK.

    Slowing growth in new FDI projects in the UK during 2017 reflects more wariness among investors. With a 6% increase in projects between 2016 and 2017, the UK shows resilience, but digging into our database reveals deeper trends in the UK's share of FDI in Europe.

    Though UK FDI has continued to grow, elsewhere in Europe it has been growing faster (+10%). As a result, since a peak in 2015, the UK’s share of FDI in Europe has declined from 21% to 18%.

    Even Greater London’s special position is weakening: its share of FDI projects in Europe has fallen from almost 10% in 2013 to less than 7% in 2017. Inflows into the capital in 2017 were up just 3%, half the national rate.

    In our perceptions survey, uncertainty about the future trade relationship between the UK and the EU is the biggest concern: logistics and supply chain activities are expected to be most affected.

    EY - Will Brexit have an impact?

    Source: EY Attractiveness Survey Europe June 2018 (total respondents: 502)

    Brexit effects ripple far beyond the UK

    Trade, customs, supply chain and talent head multiple concerns. In our early 2018 survey, 8% of companies directly impacted by Brexit foresee the transfer of activities to another country. The percentage sounds small – but the UK FDI stock is huge: losing even several percentage points would have far-reaching consequences. For now, however, minimizing disruption is the top priority for executives.

    They increasingly perceive 29 March 2019 as a firm and fast-approaching deadline. More than a quarter are working to assess trade and customs impacts; 23% are striving to mitigate the impact of possible increases in import costs and more than a fifth are reviewing the likely effects on their supply chain. Nearly one in five also worry about their future access to talent. Fewer than 1 in 10 said they are well-prepared for the fall-out from Brexit.

    One company in five said it was seeking benefits from Brexit. These could be either opportunities to capture new business – or to cut costs. Adjustment to Brexit will probably be gradual, but over time it may prove substantial, in the UK, Ireland and continental Europe.

    Among the small proportion who foresee relocation, 68% said they would move some of their operations elsewhere in Europe: 35% to Western Europe and 33% to CEE. Only 6% planned to relocate activities to the UK.

    EY Viewpoint

    Adapting to Brexit
    Mats Persson | Head of International, Trade, Economics and Policy Unit, EY UK and Ireland

  • Game changer 3: Talent shortages and technological changes are altering investment decisions

    There is optimism in Europe, but also a sea change in European investment patterns. Europe’s centers of gravity are shifting. European FDI has entered a period of transformative change. New dynamics are at work.

    There is no more certainty in Europe’s historic powerhouses for foreign investors. Brexit is a big disruptor of the UK’s longstanding leadership and Germany’s tight labor market makes it difficult for new entrants to find necessary skills at affordable rates for their new facilities.

    CEE countries may be victims of their own success. Although their appeal is still robust, convergence of the leading Central European economies with their Western European counterparts seems to be making investors more careful: if we exclude Russia and Turkey, the region has experienced just 4% growth in project numbers over 2016. Investors are responding too to signals from political shifts in some countries which are vulnerable to populism.

    Simultaneously, the continent is exposed to technological forces that are transforming Europe’s foreign investment dynamics. Foreign investors seize upon technologies that help them do more, with less.

    We believe that digitalization and the industrial efficiency transformation known as Industry 4.0 may be encouraging some companies to invest in existing sites, rather than new cross-border projects.

    Amid tumultuous change among so many factors shaping investment decisions, we believe Europe has reached an FDI tipping point that may prove comparable with those that followed the fall of the Berlin Wall, the bursting of the dotcom bubble, and the financial crisis. Investors are embarking on a radical re-evaluation of their future options.

  • Game changer 4: Superpower rivalry, trade tensions and BEPS tax reform upend investment planning

    Trade imbalances trigger challenges to trade rules

    Decades of globalization have benefited many but have cost some cities and regions their place on the train of economic growth. Widening inequalities provoke new tensions over trade and tax as well as questions over who is benefiting most, and the scale and nature of revisions needed to international rules. Challenges to consensus views on combating climate change, tariffs and terms of trade alert investors that the world order is changing. Though many countries, and Europe, have rallied to the flag of free trade, investors can no longer be sure the rules will outlive their investments.

    BEPS: clamping down on tax avoidance

    The global tax landscape has become a battleground. States compete to attract investors, whilst collaborating – as never before – to close the loopholes that facilitated erosion of their revenues.

    The 2008 financial crisis spurred an international drive, drafted by the OECD, for a global clampdown on corporate tax avoidance. The new rules to combat Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) are being implemented in the world’s first coordinated international corporate tax reforms.

    Digital taxes in Europe: can pay, will pay

    The European Commission and OECD are now respectively drafting proposals for a major overhaul of the way digital businesses are taxed. These follow mounting concern that digital champions can easily supply services or sell advertising across borders, while largely escaping taxation where their services are delivered – giving them an unfair competitive advantage and depriving states of revenue.

    Achieving consensus between countries will not be easy, and, for Europe’s digital economy, the consequences could be far-reaching.

    US tax reform: return to sender

    According to UNCTAD, almost 50% of the world’s FDI stock will be affected by the US federal tax overhaul launched late in 2017.

    What next?

    Taxes are also continuing to evolve worldwide. Generally, but not everywhere, corporate income taxes remain on a downtrend. The number of countries offering ‘patent box’ type reliefs to encourage innovation has risen. But European countries are increasingly using excise taxes, for example on sugar or alcohol, to change citizens’ behavior. These can reshape markets and oblige companies to modify the composition of their products.


EY Viewpoint

The breakdown of rules puts geopolitics center-stage
Dr Ferdinand Pavel | Executive Director, Leader Economic Advisory to the Public Sector in GSA, Transaction Advisory Services, EY, Germany

Creating an EU ecosystem favoring company growth
Alessandro Cenderello | EY Managing Partner for EU Institutions

Europe’s attractiveness in the future

Europe’s attractiveness set to improve over the coming three years
Digital transformation will be key to Europe’s future
Companies need to connect with communities too

Are international investors confident about the attractiveness of Europe?

Sunnyside up

After three years of decline, investors’ readiness to invest in Europe is recovering. In 2018, 50% of the business leaders we questioned believe Europe’s attractiveness will improve over the next year, up from 35% in 2017.

Although investors are concerned about economic and political instability within Europe, when they look around the world they often see greater risks elsewhere. When we asked if they are confident about the future of the EU, 77% said yes, up from 65% last year. Many Europeans concur. A Eurobarometer study published in November 2017 found that 71% of citizens questioned across member states saw the Union as a place of stability in a troubled world.

Meantime, demand in Europe is strengthening, thanks to economic growth and innovation that enables companies to launch new products or reduce the cost of producing goods and services there.

To what degree do you think Europe’s attractiveness will evolve over the next three years?

EY - To what degree do you think Europe’s attractiveness will evolve over the next three years?

Source: EY Attractiveness Survey Europe June 2018 (total respondents: 502)

Keener to invest

Rising optimism about Europe is reflected in investment plans. Among companies already present in Europe, 41% say they plan to expand. But optimism is also building among international companies not yet present: 12% are looking to establish new European operations in the year ahead, more than twice the proportion (5%) in our 2017 survey.

Does your company have plans to establish or expand operations in Europe over the next year?

EY - Does your company have plans to establish or expand operations in Europe over the next year?

Source: EY Attractiveness Survey Europe June 2018 (total respondents: 502)

How can Europe compete in the digital age?

Europe’s digital potential is obvious to foreign investors

In our survey, business leaders affirm very clearly – and to most, unsurprisingly – that the digital economy will be the dominant driver of Europe’s growth in years to come. They believe Europe’s economic future will overwhelmingly be shaped by the tidal wave of digitalization transforming the way we live, work and play.

Which business sectors will drive Europe’s growth in the coming years?

EY - Which business sectors will drive Europe’s growth in the coming years?

Source: EY Attractiveness Survey Europe June 2018 (total respondents: 502)

Europe needs to step up its digital and innovation game

Our survey insists, however, that the European digital scene lacks some key fundamentals if it is to remain a priority destination for entrepreneurs and global tech firms and retain talent and capital.

When we asked investors what Europe needs to fix to improve competitiveness and growth, they highlighted areas of weakness where opportunity awaits. These are manifold: from infrastructure to skills and education; from the digitalization of public services to cybersecurity and data protection; to enhancing legal, tax and financial support systems so that they provide the business environment needed for digital entrepreneurship to flourish.

Europe’s key priorities in the digital age

The digital agenda for Europe and business in Europe are key priorities to enhance European competitiveness and foster the continent’s growth. In your view, where should Europe concentrate its efforts?

EY - Which business sectors will drive Europe’s growth in the coming years?

Source: EY Attractiveness Survey Europe June 2018 (total respondents: 502)

Seven recommendations for business and government across Europe

  • Ensure innovative companies have access to world-class infrastructure and technologies

    This is the top priority for nearly half of executives interviewed for this year’s Europe Attractiveness Survey.

    Clearly companies think Europe has some of the world’s most advanced technology and infrastructure, in hardware, software, networks and data centers. But they also report that some countries that have recently joined the EU may lack quality, reliability or even simple availability in some key areas.

    Foreign investors and startups need to carefully evaluate the digital infrastructure and key technologies available in proposed locations and how public and private players plan to develop it in the future. Close engagement is needed with present and potential customers and suppliers to ensure their digital infrastructure keeps pace with the global scene.

  • Invest in skills and welcome new talents

    Technology companies compete globally for talent. Forty-two percent of companies interviewed say they need more skills for their own digital journey. They need the best engineers, technologists and data scientist. Startups also need access to deep talent pools, which means people must leave schools and universities with skills that fit the workplace of the future.

    Europe has some of the best universities and education systems in the world but studying there needs to be welcoming and attractive to the best talent from abroad, particularly students from emerging markets. A positive attitude to high-skilled immigration could become a real differentiator in the future. Policymakers at EU and national level need to address immigration issues, defuse nationalism and find solutions that respect the EU’s worthy commitment to human rights and wellbeing.

    Companies need to engage closely with education and training institutions and organizations and play a full part in developing the talents they will need in the future. Community engagement is a double win, enhancing understanding of the benefits business brings, and strengthening the license to operate.

  • Leverage the digitalization of public services

    Number three on investors’ radar is the digitalization and modernization of public services. A clear record of digital innovation in public services, with a commitment to further digital progress in partnership with companies affected, will enhance competitiveness and investment attractiveness of locations.

    Companies should seek out cities where policy-makers, universities and the financial community have created effective business ecosystems, and are ready to collaborate more with companies – on contract research, for example – and be part of the 21st century social and digital transformation.

  • Encourage investment and investors

    At the global level, Europe needs to be a firm and forceful advocate for free trade and the rule of law. In doing so, it will create a climate of confidence in its commitment to the rights of individuals and business – and distinguish itself from rival regions where investment rules are being undermined. Investors cherish a predictable playing-field.

    At a more prosaic level, technology funding has historically been one of Europe’s challenges.

    In this field it still lags behind the US. According to the European Commission, US venture capital investment was US$38b in 2016 – six times higher than in Europe (US$6b). While venture capital and private funding are growing, European companies still rely heavily on the traditional banking system. Also, Europe’s pool of capital remains fragmented at a country level and there are fewer private investors prepared to help tech businesses reach the next stage of development.

    With its planned Capital Markets Union – a kind of single market for capital, the EU would provide businesses with a greater choice of funding at lower costs, which could reduce tech startups’ dependence on relatively inflexible bank funding. Policymakers also need to think about how they can incentivize private equity firms and private individuals to invest in technology businesses. Big companies can play their part through procurement strategies and collaboration with startups.

  • Create the right business environment

    We’re seeing emerging political debate around regulation of privacy, and even proposals for taxing robotics and automation. Although Europe and its businesses need protection from excesses or gaps in regulation, it also needs to remain flexible and open to new forms of entrepreneurship. Introducing policies that discourage the development of technology which could potentially transform industries and lives would be a mistake. Socially and politically, European stakeholders have a responsibility to protect businesses and individuals, while recognizing that it would be counterproductive to raise unnecessary barriers or think we can slow the pace of change.

    Correspondingly, business must continue making every effort to meet expectations and act more and more responsibly towards customers and suppliers, shareholders and employees.

  • Support Europe’s digital agenda

    The EU’s Digital Single Market strategy aims to remove barriers and create a single online market, allowing European firms to invest more easily and scale more rapidly. Europe’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) has proved remarkably timely. Taking effect in May 2018, it has become a global benchmark. Its privacy protection and related standards are now expected to enhance confidence in Europe’s fast-growing online sector and demonstrate the benefits of effective regulation in enhancing trust, and market efficiency.

    Most of our respondents clearly want ‘more Europe’ to underpin digitalization of the economy, rather than less. Across Europe, individual countries have historically pursued national digital and technology strategies in the absence of an overarching technology framework. When it comes to digital innovation, people, researchers and companies in different European countries are clearly able to overcome impediments of language, currencies and standards. They are ready to collaborate globally and influence innovation in other parts of the world.

  • Believe in Europe’s global hot spots

    Silicon Valley, Shanghai, Beijing and New York remain the four main hotbeds investors believe most likely to “produce the next Google” – as they have since 2012.

    But Europe’s strength in the digital space is greater than it seems. Our survey shows that international executives place eight European cities among the twenty worldwide most likely to produce the next global tech giant. Albeit at a slower pace, Europe’s digital ecosystem is becoming deeper, and broader.

    Strong digital infrastructure and significant pools of digital talent and entrepreneurship are now found in many countries and regions. In terms of investment and adoption of advanced technologies such as cloud computing, big data and the Internet of things, 10 of the EU28 countries rank among the top 20 worldwide, according to the 2017 Global Connectivity Index.

    Which three cities in the world offer the best change of producing the next Google?

    EY - Which three cities in the world offer the best change of producing the next Google?

    Source: EY Attractiveness Survey Europe June 2018 (total respondents: 502)

    The word ‘disruption’ is surely overused in the corporate world, but the potential to disrupt or be disrupted is a clear and present danger for Europe. Changes that could disrupt Europe’s growth are happening now, so public and private decision makers need to instill an organizational mindset that helps sense and respond to them.

    None of these recommendations offer quick or simple fixes to the scaling challenges Europe’s digital economies face. Nor will they guarantee that Europe produces the next technology titan or attracts more innovative companies from around the world.

    But if we can do our best to remove both the soft and hard barriers that prevent innovative individuals, start-ups and corporations from operating within the wider European market, the chances of Europe becoming even more attractive will be greatly increased.


Client Viewpoint

Laying the foundations for growth through innovation
Carlos Moedas | European Commissioner for Research, Science and Innovation

EY Viewpoint

Seizing Europe’s tech moment
Julie Linn Teigland | Regional Managing Partner, EY GSA (Germany, Switzerland, Austria)

The views of third parties set out in this publication are not necessarily the views of the global EY organization or its member firms. Moreover, they should be seen in the context of the time they were made.

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