Economic Eye Spring update: Executive Summary
The Spring Economic Eye report provides updated forecasts and commentary for the all-island economy.
A strengthening global economy has improved the outlook for RoI which is also enjoying buoyant domestic conditions. Despite more challenging conditions in Northern Ireland, job growth is continuing and cross-border shopping and tourism are helping boost export performance.
Included in the report:
Irish growth outlook revised up
Significant upward revision to Irish estimates of growth in 2017 (6.7%) and improved short-term outlook (4.5% 2018, 3.8% 2019). The strength of the global economy, impressive job creation and the release of new quarterly data for 2017 underpin this improved outlook.
New Irish strategies published
The National Planning Framework and National Development Plan provide a long-term vision for the RoI economy. The report reviews these important strategic documents.
Widening gap in economic performance
The Northern Ireland economy continues to lag well behind its Irish neighbour, with growth remaining projected to fall from 1.6% in 2017 to 1.2% in 2018. The lack of a local Executive and consumers facing a fall in their level of real income are holding back the NI economy.
Strong employment growth
Job creation continues to be a positive story across the island with close to 52,000 net new jobs added over the last 12 months and more than 225,000 projected over the next 5 years. The vast majority of the additional jobs will be in RoI and they will continue to be widely spread across sectors.
Talent and costs join Brexit atop the risks register
The report highlights the talent and rising cost pressures that are becoming increasingly strong headwinds for Irish clients. Brexit remains a critical business risk but sadly little clarity has emerged on the Brexit outcome as the negotiations and positioning ramp up.
For more information please download our Economic Eye Spring update.
Professor Neil Gibson, Chief Economist, EY Ireland
Michael Hall, Head of Markets, EY Ireland