Global oil and gas deal value reached US$395b in 2016 with help from megadeals
SINGAPORE, 8 FEBRUARY 2017
- Sector deal value increased 16% year-on-year while volume declined
- Fourth quarter momentum set to carry forward in 2017 as market stabilizes
Global oil and gas deal activity in 2016 recovered from a slow start to the year with help from the announcements of midstream and oilfield services (OFS) megadeals. According to the EY Global oil and gas transaction review 2016, deal value increased in 2016 to US$395b from US$340b in 2015, while deal volume fell by 27% year-on-year.
Andy Brogan, EY Global Oil & Gas Transactions Leader, says:
“Transactions took a back seat to the more urgent task of adapting to new economic realities in the sector last year. A number of deals were initiated but not completed amid ongoing volatility. Now, with the consensus throughout the sector that the worst is behind us, we’re starting to see a shift as companies realize that there may be a cost to inaction. We expect to see the momentum that began in the fourth quarter of 2016 continue in the year ahead.”
Upstream deal value fell 14% to US$130b in 2016 compared to US$153b in 2015. However, when excluding the Royal Dutch Shell and BG Group megadeal in 2015, upstream transaction activity improved in 2016. The majority of transactions originated in the US, with record Permian basin deal volumes. Deal value in North America exceeded US$76b in 2016 compared to US$43b in 2015. Activity remained muted in other geographies as buyers and sellers struggled to bridge the valuation gap.
While recent distress is expected have a lasting impact on higher-cost geographies, like South America, Africa and parts of the Middle East and Asia, upstream deal activity is expected to accelerate as portfolio optimization continues and national oil companies (NOCs) experience pressure from cutbacks.
North America dominated midstream transaction activity as well, though continued oil price volatility slowed the boom in shale infrastructure projects. Deal volume in the sub-sector fell 28% to 93 deals in 2016 compared to 105 in 2015. Deal value, however, increased by 29% to US$146b year-over-year. A mild resurgence of capital spending in shale and North American petrochemical and LNG infrastructure projects is expected to lead midstream activity in 2017.
Downstream deal value increased by 30% in 2016 to US$65.9b from US$51.5b in 2015 – more than double the average annual reported deal value (US$28.8b) in the past five years. The sub-sector saw fewer but larger deals. Two deals valued at more than US$10b – by Rosneft and a consortium led by Macquarie – represented 36% of this total value. Meanwhile, deal volume declined by 17% to 131 deals from 142 in 2015. Activity was led by the US and Europe, representing 66% and 65% of total downstream deal value, respectively.
Across Asia-Pacific, deal activity in 2016 was subdued for the second consecutive year, recording the lowest number and value of deals over the past five years. Total transaction value for the year was US$10.5b, with three megadeals accounting for the bulk of the value. In terms of outbound transactions, Asian companies to focus on North America, followed by Russia (primarily oil and gas assets in Eastern Siberia) and Europe.
Looking ahead, 2017 is expected to be a stronger year for downstream transactions, with deals motivated by the desire for upstream and downstream integration to create value – a strategy downplayed during the period of high oil prices.
OFS showed signs of recovery with deal volume declining by just 2% and deal value increasing 106% to US$53b in 2016. Continued financial stress and overcapacity is expected to drive further consolidation in 2017.
On the outlook across Asia-Pacific, Sanjeev Gupta, EY Asia-Pacific Oil & Gas Leader, says: “Deal activity is expected to increase significantly in 2017 as oil majors accelerate divestments in the region, in line with their active portfolio management initiatives. Mature or mid-life upstream assets, and lower-risk or lower-return downstream assets and businesses will likely top the list. Deal closures, driven by stabilized oil prices, and expansion of Russia’s strategic partnerships with Asia, will also likely fuel transaction activity in 2017. However, the distress of 2016 will continue to have implications in higher-cost geographies of Asia.”
Brogan concludes: “This year promises to mark a continuation of the transition from survival to value creation in the global oil and gas sector. Companies are very firmly focused on delivering value but as investor attitudes change this will inevitably bring growth back into the picture. If capital availability and the valuation gap between buyers and sellers improves alongside a stable oil price, it should be an interesting year for transactions.”
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About the report
The EY Global oil and gas transaction review 2016 looks at significant trends in oil and gas deal activity throughout 2016 and the outlook for transactions in 2017. It considers the diverse dynamics in the upstream, downstream, midstream and oilfield services (OFS) segments, as well as the macro environment and regional trends, which can be found exclusively online. The report presents EY’s analysis of transaction data largely compiled by Derrick Petroleum Services.
For more information, please visit ey.com/oilandgas/transactions.