Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index
Our latest and 53rd edition of the Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index (RECAI) report ranks 40 countries on the attractiveness of their renewable energy investment and deployment opportunities.
Our index rankings give you access to the latest country movements at a glance.
The index was recalibrated in April 2019, with all underlying datasets fully refreshed. See a full description of our methodology.
France is leading the way in floating offshore wind, with the European Commission approving four demonstration projects, while six-monthly onshore wind tenders are doubling in size, from 500MW to 1,000MW.
A report by a government advisory body has suggested the Netherlands is unlikely to meet its 2030 climate goals, with renewables comprising just 6.6% of its energy mix in 2017, with a 14% target by 2020.
A cancelled renewables auction and revisions to contracts from the state utility’s tender for 7GW of wind and solar capacity, because of a change in Mexico’s energy policy, have injected uncertainty into the market.
A leading player in the floating energy space, South Korea has announced plans to build one of the largest renewable clusters in the world – a 4GW complex off its west coast, comprising 3GW of solar and 1GW of wind power.
With its solar FiT eligibility deadline nearing, plans to develop a 475MW floating solar PV reservoir, and improvements to its wind project approval process, Vietnam’s renewables market is growing at pace.
Kazakhstan’s renewables market is drawing the attention of international investors, with overseas development banks investing in solar PV projects in the country, and the Government successfully auctioning 250MW of wind capacity.
Plans for a steep cut in Taiwan’s FiT rates for offshore wind projects raised concerns around future profitability and resulted in PPAs being cancelled before the Government settled on a more modest 6% reduction.
Despite some success with projects in Sindh province, Pakistan has faced delays transitioning to auctions. Pipeline projects are yet to materialise because of a reluctance by the previous PML-N Government to increase power tariffs, with only a partial restoration of projects achieved more recently by NEPRA, Pakistan’s national power regulatory body.
With plans to build Europe’s largest subsidy-free onshore wind farm, at 1.5GW, Norway is demonstrating early signs of a comeback in its renewables market, with investors and lenders adapting to new subsidy-free conditions – namely, via PPAs.
Finland launched a renewable energy tender in November 2018, after the removal of FiTs, awarding seven onshore wind projects with subsidies of just €1-4/MWh, indicating another near-subsidy-free market. Corporate PPAs are also helping drive investment activity.
Success without subsidy: a new renewable energy landscape
Renewable energy developers and investors are stepping into a brave new world – one that is increasingly unsubsidised where projects compete on their economic and environmental merits.
In this latest RECAI, we examine two related characteristics of this new landscape: how projects are grappling with new-found exposure to wholesale power prices and market imbalance – known as merchant risk – and corporate energy buyers’ growing role underwriting clean energy projects.
For developers and investors, this is a more complex world to negotiate
Developers must work harder and smarter to find the revenue certainty needed to raise finance or monetise their efforts. Investors need to understand, price and manage the risks faced by renewable energy projects that can no longer rely on long-term, government-backed revenue streams.
For the renewable energy market overall, however, a future without government subsidy is one that will no longer be vulnerable to sudden policy shifts, or retroactive changes to promised tariffs. It will be one where market forces impose discipline, drive efficiencies and accelerate the cost reductions that have allowed the sector to stand on its own two feet.
Not all promising renewables technologies have reached that point yet, though.
We examine the rapid growth in offshore wind as it gains footholds in new markets, such as the US, mainland China, Taiwan and Japan, where, for it to reach its potential, government support will need to foster local capacity and build domestic supply chains. But here, too, it is only a matter of time before offshore wind is viable without government support, as seen in recent European tenders.
Renewable energy: banking on merchant
The renewable energy sector is moving beyond a reliance on subsidy, but developers, investors and intermediaries are grappling with the challenges and risks of unsubsidised projects.
Taking the corporate PPA market to the next level
New companies, new countries and new structures are putting corporate PPAs on course for continued growth.
Offshore wind sets sail for new waters
Over the next decade, offshore wind technology will spread across the world – but what jurisdictions are likely to be most attractive to developers and investors?
Key country developments
A summary of the latest country-specific, transaction and investment highlights.
China looks to a subsidy-free future
China’s renewable energy sector is hoping 2019 will be better than 2018, when subsidy cuts dramatically slowed solar installations, and is moving towards subsidy-free development.
Business as usual promises growth for Brazilian renewables
The future for Brazil’s renewable energy sector is becoming clearer, with significant renewable energy investments in the region.
Explore our viewpoints
Corporates drive Nordics renewables as the region looks beyond subsidy
The modern renewable energy industry can trace its roots to the Nordics, with the Danish Government’s decision, in the wake of the 1970s energy crisis, to build a domestic wind energy sector. Fast forward four decades, and the region continues to lead the clean energy charge.Read more
Why there’s no (subsidy-) free lunch for offshore wind
Offshore wind is growing rapidly with some projects now being won without government subsidy. However, is subsidy-free offshore wind truly sustainable? EY's Andrew Perkins, Kinga Charpentier, Michael Bruhn and Ross McWhirter discuss the changing role of subsidies as offshore wind fast becomes a mainstream part of Europe's electricity system.Read more
EU renewables deal offers visibility to 2030
Bedeviled by boom and bust, the renewable energy industry got what it wanted from this summer’s political agreement on the EU’s 2030 renewable energy targets: not only a higher EU target than they expected but also visibility and transparency for investors.Read more
Hydrogen’s potential role in a decarbonised energy system
The targets of the Paris Agreement, signed in 2015 by 180 countries, will require a major transformation of the global energy system. Renewable-power generation is already leading the way in decarbonising the global power sector, but this will not be enough on its own. Deep-decarbonisation must also take place in harder-to-reach sectors like heating and transport – and progress here so far is much more limited.
The pace of technology advancement and cost reduction make renewable power a strong candidate to provide most of the carbon-free energy needed to drive wider decarbonisation.
Electrification of other sectors is the obvious way to link their energy needs to the carbon-free energy from renewable power-generating technologies, but, to understand this opportunity, it is important to take a system-wide view.
This is explored in a recent EY report, which examines hydrogen’s potential role in achieving the UK’s ambitious decarbonisation target of an 80% reduction by 2050 across power, heat and transport.
“Green” hydrogen, generated by electrolysis from renewable power, offers a potential solution to a number of key system challenges: storaging large volumes of intermittent renewable energy, a carbon-free gaseous fuel to enable decarbonisation of heat and transport sectors alongside other technologies, and an alternative way to mitigate the large investment needed for electrification.
Hydrogen’s potential role is equally applicable to other countries’ energy systems, as highlighted in IRENA’s recent report .
Contact the RECAI team
RECAI Chief Editor
Global Power & Utilities Corporate Finance Leader
UK&I Energy & Infrastructure Corporate Finance Leader
+44 (0)20 7951 6024
RECAI Chief Advisor
Assistant Director, Energy & Infrastructure Corporate Finance
+44 (0)13 9228 4499
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