The better the question. The better the answer. The better the world works. У вас есть вопрос? У нас есть ответ. Решая сложные задачи бизнеса, мы улучшаем мир. У вас є запитання? У нас є відповідь. Вирішуючи складні завдання бізнесу, ми змінюємо світ на краще. Meilleure la question, meilleure la réponse. Pour un monde meilleur. 問題越好。答案越好。商業世界越美好。 问题越好。答案越好。商业世界越美好。

Summer Forecast

July 2019

Outlook more uncertain than ever

  • EY ITEM Club forecasts business investment to contract 1.6% in 2019
  • GDP growth projections maintained at 1.3% for 2019 and 1.5% for 2020

Despite a promising start to the year, business investment is expected to contract 1.6% in 2019 as prolonged Brexit uncertainty and a challenging global economy impact companies’ willingness to invest and commit to major new projects, according to EY ITEM Club’s Summer Forecast.

For the full findings, download our report.

Register here for the webcast on Monday 8 July at 12.00pm (available on-demand from Tuesday 9 July).

Read the news release.

Listen to our podcast

EY ITEM Club Summer Forecast 2019: Roundup
Listen to EY’s UK Chief Economist, Mark Gregory, as he examines the findings of the Summer Forecast.

Coming soon!

EY - Business investment and GDP
EY - UK: Average earnings and inflation

Three years after the Brexit vote, the UK economy is even more uncertain and unpredictable than it was in 2016. As various aspects of the economy react differently to the current situation it paints a confusing and conflicting picture for businesses. However, if the UK manages to leave the EU with a deal on 31 October it will provide some semblance of stability which could result in a pick-up in business investment. The unknown nature of the UK’s long-term relationship with the EU has the potential to limit this upturn though and the real worry is that we wake up in 2025 out of the EU and with a very uncompetitive economy.”

Mark Gregory,

EY UK Chief Economist


An unwinding of the substantial stockpiling that occurred in Q1 2019 has clearly weighed on the UK economy in Q2, while it has also been hampered by extended Brexit uncertainties, an unsettled UK political situation and a challenging global economic environment. It also looks like consumers took a breather in Q2 after spending at a fair pace in Q1.”

Howard Archer,

Chief Economic Advisor to the EY ITEM Club


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