CEE Mergers & Acquisitions 2Q2025: market outlook and highlights

• The focus of deal activity in the CEE Region shifted toward larger, high-impact deals with deal value increasing by 30% QoQ, while transaction volume declined 8% QoQ.
• Poland recorded the highest number of deals in terms of both volume and value, followed by Türkiye.
• The technology sector continued to dominate in terms of deal volume in 2Q25.

M&A activity across CEE in 2Q25 reflects a clear shift toward strategic, high-value transactions, set against a backdrop of persistent global macroeconomic and trade uncertainty. While deal volume declined by 8% QoQ and 36% YoY to 245 transactions, signaling investor caution, deal value rose sharply — up 30% QoQ and 7% YoY to US$22.6b. Mid-to-large sized transactions primarily drive this uptick, indicating a preference for substantial deals that can offer strategic advantages in a challenging environment.

Economic growth within the CEE Region remains moderate and uneven, supported by resilient consumer demand and easing inflation. However, external factors heavily influence the economic outlook, including evolving global trade policies and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Central banks in the Region are adopting a cautious approach, waiting to assess the impact of global trade tariff and fiscal policy measures.

The recently concluded US-EU tariff agreement offers trade stability but also introduces cost pressures and risks to profitability margins. This has led to cautious investor sentiment with businesses reassessing supply chains, accelerating strategic M&A activity focused on localization and export diversification.

In parallel, the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) — expected to inject €900 billion into the European economy by 2025 — continues to drive cross-border deal activity in areas such as sustainability, digital transformation, and economic resilience. This has created fertile ground for innovation-led partnerships and sector convergence, particularly in green infrastructure and tech.

At the same time, NATO’s expanded defense spending targets are spurring investment in manufacturing and infrastructure, particularly in countries such as Poland and the Czech Republic, which are well positioned within Regional supply chains. Together with the strengthening of CEE currencies against both the dollar and euro, these trends underscore the Region’s underlying macroeconomic stability and growing attractiveness to investors as we enter the second half of 2025.

Poland and Türkiye continued to drive CEE deal flow in 2Q25, while Greece, Romania and the Baltic states also indicated accelerating deal flow

In 2Q25, Poland and Türkiye stood out as key contributors to deal activity in the CEE Region, despite facing YoY transaction declines of 39% and 28%, respectively. Poland led with 26% of Regional deals, totaling US$9.8b across 63 transactions. Activity remained concentrated in health care, technology, and power and utilities, which together accounted for half of Poland’s deal flow. The country’s ongoing banking sector consolidation — fueled by low credit penetration, limited physical banking infrastructure, and widespread digital adoption — continues to attract both strategic and technology-driven investors.

Türkiye contributed 17% of Regional deal volume, with US$5.7b in total value across 42 transactions. M&A activity was particularly strong in technology, consumer products, wealth management, and aerospace and defense. The country’s rapidly expanding digital entertainment ecosystem, cost-competitive development environment, and supportive policy landscape are positioning it as a growing hub for international investment, especially in the gaming and tech sectors.

Momentum is also building in Romania and Greece, which recorded 26 and 17 transactions, respectively. Although overall volumes were modest, high-value strategic transactions buoyed both markets, indicating increased investor interest in select sectors and assets.

The Baltic states accounted for 19% of Regional deal volume, with deal flow primarily driven by mid-sized transactions (US$10m to US$40m EV) and Regional capital from private equity funds, family offices, and emerging perpetual capital providers. Amid rising geopolitical risks and trade-related uncertainty — exacerbated by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and evolving US-EU tariff dynamics — investors in the Baltics are increasingly gravitating toward resilient, export-oriented, asset-light sectors such as technology and services. Furthermore, we expect increased defense spending across Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania to further stimulate M&A activity in the defense and infrastructure sectors.

The technology sector continued to be the frontrunner in driving deal activity in the Region.

The technology sector continued to be the most active segment for M&A in CEE in 2Q25, registering 56 transactions valued at US$4.4b. While overall deal volume declined 41% YoY, total deal value surged by 286%, highlighting a marked shift in investor appetite toward fewer but larger, high-impact transactions.

Domestic deals accounted for half (46.9%) of all tech transactions, with inbound cross-border investments making up an additional 39.3%, underscoring the Region’s growing appeal to international strategic players. Türkiye and Poland emerged as key technology markets, leading the Region in terms of volume. Strategic buyers were the dominant force, responsible for 68% of total tech M&A activity, while private equity contributed 32%. Investors remained sharply focused on high-growth, tech-enabled businesses with scalable operating models, strong domestic market positions, and potential for global expansion — particularly in digital consumer, e-commerce, and on-demand service verticals.

This performance reaffirms the CEE Region’s position as a dynamic and maturing technology investment landscape, where investors are prioritizing quality over quantity, targeting companies that can scale rapidly and compete globally.

The consumer sector remained a key contributor in CEE dealmaking, driven by strategic consolidation efforts aimed at gaining operational efficiency and resilience.

In 2Q25, the consumer products and retail sector continued to be an important contributor to M&A activity in CEE, despite experiencing notable declines in both value and volume. The sector recorded 35 transactions totaling US$508m, reflecting a 38% YoY drop in deal value and a 32% decrease in deal volume.

Domestic deals dominated the landscape, accounting for 71% of overall transaction volume, pointing to a continued focus on local consolidation and market resilience. Türkiye and Lithuania led in deal count, while Moldova recorded the highest deal value. Corporate buyers remained highly active, contributing approximately 83% of all CPR transactions. Strategic consolidation efforts were centered on expanding production capacity, enhancing market positioning, and strengthening control over supply chains. These moves reflect the sector’s focus on operational efficiency and resilience, especially in the face of ongoing cost pressures.

While deal activity softened in volume and value, the continued presence of strategic buyers underscores confidence in long-term fundamentals of the CPR sector — particularly in segments that offer vertical integration opportunities, premium product positioning, and regional scale.

2Q25 marked a revival in M&A activity within the aerospace, defense and mobility sector in the CEE Region, cushioned by domestic deals.

The aerospace, defense, and mobility sector in the CEE Region saw a resurgence of M&A momentum in 2Q25, with 27 transactions totaling US$1.1 billion. This represented a QoQ increase of 29% in volume and 179% in deal value, reflecting renewed investor confidence and an expanding appetite for strategic infrastructure and defense-linked assets.

Despite this quarterly rebound, activity remained below 2Q24 levels, with year-on-year declines of 33% in transaction count and 90% in value. This contrast highlights the volatility of the sector and the outsized impact of fewer large-scale transactions in the previous year.

Domestic deals made up 48.1% of overall activity, signaling continued national-level investment and consolidation efforts. Within the Region, Türkiye led in transaction volume, while Greece accounted for the highest deal value, underlining their growing strategic importance within the sector. Strategic buyers were the primary force, responsible for 78% of total deal value, with private equity contributing the remaining 22%. Investors are increasingly concentrating interest on assets that strengthen coordination capabilities, enable cross-border integration, and enhance supply chain resilience — all critical components of long-term Regional security and defense preparedness.

Domestic deals dominated deal activity in 2Q25, with a modest QoQ increase in deal value.

Domestic transactions dominated the CEE Region deal landscape in 2Q25, accounting for 56% of total deal volume with 137 transactions valued at US$7.0b. While overall domestic deal volume declined QoQ, deal value recorded a modest 7% increase, driven primarily by strategic interest in core sectors such as consumer products and retail, technology, and infrastructure, which collectively represented 37% of total transaction volume.
Inbound activity, though lower in volume with 77 deals, demonstrated significant strength in value, reaching US$14.8 b. Despite a 15% QoQ and 34% YoY decline in deal count, inbound deal value surged by 141% QoQ and 190% YoY, signaling strong international investor appetite for high-value assets in the Region. The technology sector led inbound investment, contributing approximately 26% of total inbound deal value, while there were three US$1 billion-plus transactions in the strategic sectors of financial services, energy, and health care. The UK, the US, and Sweden emerged as the most active investor locations.

Conversely, outbound activity from CEE markets slowed, with only 31 transactions totaling US$719 million — an 84% drop in value and 16% decline in volume compared with 1Q25. France, Germany, and the UK were the markets most targeted by CEE-based buyers, with outbound investment largely concentrated in technology, power and utilities, consumer products and retail, and aerospace and defense, which together accounted for 63% of outbound transaction volume.

Corporate deals led CEE activity in both value and volume — particularly the technology, consumer products and retail, and power and utilities sectors.

Corporate M&A remained the dominant engine of deal activity, with 182 transactions (74% of all transactions) totaling US$17.3 billion. While deal volume experienced a modest 5% decline QoQ, deal value nearly doubled, rising by 98%. Private equity activity in CEE amounted to US$5.3b across 63 transactions, reflecting a 30% YoY decline in volume and a 38% drop in deal value, reflecting cautious dealmaking environment.

The presence of out-of-Region PE acquirers continued to grow, rising to 23.8% of total PE activity, up from 20.8% a year earlier. Notably, European investors accounted for 67% of this cross-border investment, reflecting sustained confidence in CEE markets. The share of PE deals led by CESA-based investors declined to 76.1%, down from 79.2% in 2Q24.

Corporate deal flow was particularly active in technology, consumer products and retail, and power and utilities, while concentrated PE investment was in the technology, health care, aerospace, defense and mobility, and consumer sectors.