CEE M&A in 3Q25 shows resilience amid global headwinds

• Deal activity in the CEE Region pivoted toward fewer, long-term collaborative opportunities.
• Investors are targeting assets critical to digital transformation, next generation technology fields, and energy transition.
• Türkiye and Poland maintained their leadership in the CEE M&A landscape in 3Q25.

Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity across CEE in 3Q25 highlighted notable resilience and strategic recalibration despite persistent economic and geopolitical headwinds. The Region recorded a robust year-to-date (YTD) deal value of US$56.2b — up 41% YoY — underscoring investor confidence and long-term strategic intent.

Q3 alone saw deal value surge 54% YoY to US$16.4b. Conversely, on a QoQ basis deal value declined by 27%, reflecting a temporary slowdown in mega-deal activity. Deal volume also contracted, falling 24% QoQ and 28% YoY to 274 transactions, indicating a shift toward fewer but more strategic, synergy-driven acquisitions.

Investment has been heavily concentrated in digital, infrastructure, energy transition, and resilient sectors such as food and agriculture with these accounting for most transactions in 3Q25. This implies investor preference for recession-resistant and long-term synergy-driven acquisitions — consistent with broader trends observed across Europe.

Furthermore, 3Q25 witnessed landmark transactions exceeding US$1b in life sciences and media and entertainment. The largest transaction of the quarter was a US$4.8b inbound private equity deal — reinforcing the growing prominence of healthcare and pharmaceutical assets in the Region’s M&A landscape.

Economic fundamentals in the CEE Region remain broadly supportive, with robust domestic demand underpinned by resilient labor markets and wage growth. The industrial sector is showing early signs of recovery despite global headwinds. Alternatively, export-oriented CEE countries continue to face pressure from soft Eurozone demand, rising protectionism, and intensifying competition from China.

Fiscal consolidation remains a challenge for CEE economies in the wake of the pandemic and energy crisis. Central banks across the Region maintain a cautious monetary stance, with only National Bank of Poland expected to continue policy rate cuts amid improving inflation dynamics.

Looking ahead, we expect the CEE M&A landscape to remain active, shaped by strategic repositioning, sectoral resilience, and macroeconomic recalibration. Investors are increasingly prioritizing quality over quantity, positioning the Region as a compelling destination for long-term value creation.

Türkiye and Poland emerged as frontrunners in deal volume in 3Q25, despite a QoQ decline collectively accounting for 40% of total transactions.

Türkiye led with 59 deals (21% of total volume), valued at US$1.3b. Improving macroeconomic conditions, enhanced geopolitical stability, regulatory reforms, and abundant capital, particularly from private equity and venture capital firms underpinned this resilience. While deal sizes remained modest, co-investments and restructuring-led transactions drove volume, signaling a maturing investment ecosystem.

Poland followed closely with 53 deals (19% of total volume), totaling US$237m; strong economic fundamentals and sectoral innovation supporting this activity. A shift toward mid-market consolidation and strategic sector protections are fostering domestic M&A and outbound expansion initiatives for driving cross-border synergies.

In both markets, the sectors of technology, healthcare, consumer products and retail, and energy transition attracted robust interest from local and international investors. Lower interest rates further facilitated acquisition financing, reinforcing deal feasibility and strategic alignment.

Meanwhile, the Czech Republic and Greece dominated regional deal values, contributing US$8.6b and US$4.8b, respectively. The Czech Republic alone accounted for 52% of total deal value, driven by two milestone transactions — including one inbound and one outbound deal. The largest transaction of the quarter, valued at US$4.8b, underscored the strategic role of private equity in scaling innovation and manufacturing capabilities.

Together, these trends highlight a nuanced M&A landscape in the CEE Region — where macroeconomic stability, sectoral resilience, and investor sophistication increasingly shape volume leadership and value concentration. As the Region continues to recalibrate amid global uncertainties, strategic dealmaking remains a key lever for growth and transformation.

The technology sector continues to anchor M&A activity across CEE, reflecting its strategic importance in driving digital transformation, AI infrastructure development, and next-generation innovation. Despite a QoQ decline in both deal value (down 85%) and volume (down 11%), the sector remained the most active in 3Q25, recording 65 transactions totaling US$770m.

Domestic transactions dominated the landscape, accounting for 46.2% of total tech deal volume, followed by inbound investments at 33.8%. Türkiye and Poland led in domestic transaction volume, while Malta and Hungary emerged as key contributors to deal value, highlighting the Region’s diverse investment hotspots.

Poland’s vibrant tech ecosystem — particularly in AI, SaaS, and cybersecurity — is attracting sustained interest from both local and international buyers. Meanwhile, Türkiye’s government-backed startup initiatives and expanding digital infrastructure have catalyzed foreign-led investments and strategic partnerships.

Strategic buyers were the primary drivers of activity, responsible for 63% of tech transactions, while private equity firms contributed 37%, underscoring a balanced mix of long-term strategic plays and financial investor confidence.

As digital transformation accelerates across the Region, the technology sector remains a cornerstone of M&A strategy, offering scalable innovation, cross-border synergies, and resilient growth opportunities. The sector’s continued evolution positions CEE as a compelling hub for tech-driven investment and strategic expansion.

Infrastructure M&A activity across CEE in 2025 has demonstrated resilience and renewed strategic momentum, despite a softening in transaction volume. YTD deal value rose 68% compared to the same period in 2024, signaling strong investor confidence in long-term infrastructure assets, even as deal volume declined by 11%.

In 3Q25, the sector recorded 27 deals totaling US$536m, reflecting a 44% YoY decline in deal value and a 33% drop in deal volume. Despite this moderation, infrastructure ranked as the third most active sector in the Region, underscoring its continued relevance in regional investment strategies.

Corporate buyers dominated activity, accounting for 88% of transactions, driven by strategic plays in energy, transport, and digital infrastructure. Domestic transactions comprised 44% of total volume, closely followed by inbound investments at 41%, highlighting the sector’s balanced mix of local consolidation and international interest.

Türkiye led domestic infrastructure M&A in both deal count and value, reflecting its ongoing investment in national infrastructure modernization. Poland ranked second in volume, while the Czech Republic led in deal value, reinforcing their positions as key infrastructure hubs within the Region.

Domestic transactions dominated M&A activity in the CEE Region during 3Q25, accounting for 53% of total deal volume with 145 deals valued at US$4.0b. Both deal volume and value declined on QoQ basis, 36% and 53%, respectively.

Consumer products and retail, technology, and healthcare collectively represent 47% of total deal volume.

Inbound activity saw 87 deals worth US$6.4b, noting a surge in YoY deal value of 278% despite deal volume declining on both QoQ and YoY basis by 16% and 29%, respectively. The USA, UK, and Finland led inbound acquisitions, with technology and infrastructure sectors accounting for 29% of inbound deal volume.

Outbound M&A surged, with 42 deals totaling US$6.1b, marking a 1,242% increase in value and 35% rise in volume compared to Q2. Germany, the UK, and the USA were the top target markets, with technology and consumer sectors driving 40% of outbound deal volume.

Despite a slowdown in mid-to-large transactions, the quarter highlighted a strategic pivot toward domestic consolidation, sectoral resilience, and targeted cross-border expansion.

Private equity (PE) activity in the CEE Region in Q3 2025 measured US$6.8b across 69 transactions, marking a 33% YoY increase in value despite a 32% decline in volume. Corporate M&A continued to dominate, with 206 deals worth US$11.5b, though both volume and value fell 27% and 32% QoQ, respectively.

Cross-border PE interest strengthened, with out-of-Region acquisitions rising to 26%, led by US investors accounting for 20% of such deals. While CEE-based PE acquirers remained dominant at 73.9%, their share dipped from 82.6% in the previous quarter.

Strategic buyers made up 75% of total deal volume, with PE contributing 25%. Top corporate sectors included consumer products and retail, technology, and infrastructure, while PE activity concentrated in technology, consumer products and retail, and oil & gas/chemicals.

Most transactions fell within the small-size bracket (US$0–US$50m), with only four deals exceeding US$1b — three corporate and one PE — underscoring a cautious yet targeted approach to large-scale investments.

M&A activity across CEE is expected to remain resilient, with a clear strategic pivot toward fewer, higher-value transactions as investors prioritize quality over quantity and focus on recession-resistant sectors.

Long-term, purpose-driven investments are gaining traction, targeting assets critical to digital transformation, energy transition, and EU economic security.

Global investors continue to be active, attracted by valuation gaps compared to Western Europe and improving financing conditions, while strategic acquirers maintain a dominant role over private equity in driving deal momentum.

Despite external headwinds, robust domestic demand — supported by strong labor markets, solid wage growth, and currency stability — remains the backbone of Regional growth, reinforcing investor confidence. However, risks persist from potential fiscal tightening and soft Eurozone demand, alongside global trade pressures and rising competition and involution from China.

We expect Poland and Türkiye to lead sectoral innovation, fueled by stable macroeconomic fundamentals, regulatory easing, and abundant capital availability, with technology, renewable energy, and healthcare emerging as prime growth engines.

Nearshoring trends and de-globalization are set to accelerate supply chain resilience, while ESG imperatives and EU Recovery and Resilience Facility funding will continue to drive investment in sustainability, green transition, and digital transformation. These structural shifts position CEE as a compelling hub for strategic dealmaking and long-term value creation in an evolving global landscape.