In a NAVI world, IPOs evolve as sectors shift, and sponsors adapt
In a NAVI environment, the global IPO landscape is shifting in ways that are reshaping issuer behavior and investor appetite. Rapid technological advancements, evolving geopolitical conditions and changes in capital allocation are driving these dynamics, evident across sectors, regions and sponsor-backed activities, with AI playing a pivotal role.
Sector activity is uneven, accelerated and globally differentiated
Because NAVI conditions amplify thematic dispersion, sector performance in 2025 diverged distinctively across markets.
The composition of IPO activity reflects these shifting dynamics. Globally, industrials (22%) and technology, media, telecommunications (TMT) (21%) dominated IPO proceeds in 2025, though their influence varied by region. In the US, TMT accounted for nearly 40% of proceeds, largely driven by companies supporting the AI infrastructure. In contrast, Europe exhibited a more diverse sector mix, including industrials, financial services, real estate and hospitality, and consumer. Asia-Pacific saw large issuers in AI systems in robotics, mobility and industrials.
Sponsor-backed activity is selective and strategic
Sponsor-backed activity exemplifies the impact of NAVI dynamics in today’s IPO market. Private equity (PE)-backed deals, while representing a small share of global issuance (just 103 deals or 8% in 2025), generated a substantial US$62.1b in proceeds (36%). This disparity is even more pronounced at a regional level. In Europe, PE-backed IPOs made up 13% of activity but contributed nearly 60% of proceeds, while in the US, sponsors represented 16% of deal count yet delivered 65% of the proceeds. In Asia-Pacific, sponsor involvement is moderate by volume but decisive in the positioning and scale of the region’s largest offerings. These trends highlight PE’s role as a force multiplier in the IPO market.
In non-linear markets, sponsors concentrate their efforts on large, clear narratives that can withstand shifting sentiment. In volatile conditions, they prioritize optionality, maintaining dual-track flexibility as a strategic tool. And in an interconnected capital landscape, global rate paths, M&A conditions and sector-specific capital flows increasingly shape PE exits, positioning sponsors as both key participants and stabilizing agents in the market.
AI’s transformative potential and valuation debate
The transformative potential of AI is evident, yet current valuations have sparked debate about whether they are entering “bubble” territory. This discussion has become central to market sentiment, particularly as AI-related companies have significantly influenced equity performance this year. In the US, Big Tech stocks have driven about half of the S&P 500’s gains in 2025, with just a handful of mega-cap AI leaders contributing roughly one-third of the index’s rise. This concentration underscores AI’s potential but also introduces heightened sensitivity; modest valuation shifts among a few issuers can impact broader asset classes.
The core of the “AI bubble” debate is less about whether AI will reshape industries (it will), and more about whether current valuations are aligned with near-term revenue generation and realistic deployment timelines. The risk lies not in AI’s trajectory faltering, but in markets potentially pricing in its future benefits too quickly. In a NAVI environment, such misalignments can lead to temporary dislocations without undermining the structural growth thesis for AI.
Navigating in a NAVI world
Across sectors, sponsors and emerging valuation themes, one conclusion stands out: the 2025 IPO market is not a return to equilibrium but an adaptation to a new normal. While the market evolves rapidly, a lack of agility can falter plans while significant opportunities remain for well-prepared companies.
For issuers, success hinges on strategic flexibility, compelling equity narratives and the ability to act swiftly when opportunities arise. In this NAVI environment, IPO readiness and transaction optionality remain critical to better withstand volatility.