Are universities of the past still the future?

Try this thought experiment to shake off today’s norms and consider what the future may hold for your university. For more details of each scenario and their likely implications for the sector, download the report.

1. What if… the cost of learning is driven down to zero?

Imagine that learning and gaining qualifications in 2030 is as convenient as shopping or banking in 2021, and is possible to do at a very low cost. You can access your learning “account” online and complete course modules or entire degree programs from the best providers, anywhere in the world, at your own pace. The learning journey becomes hybrid, taking the best that online and in-person modes can offer, and flexing to your individual needs.

Signposts from today

• Universities are moving to make quality digital learning a part of their core offering. Some are partnering with online learning platforms. Others are using media production companies to produce slicker, more engaging content. A few are partnering with or acquiring digital-first universities with fully formed online programs ready to go.
• The concept of the “flipped classroom” is widely accepted. Content is disseminated online, either asynchronously (recorded or self-guided) or synchronously (“live” or together in time but not place), but not via mass in-person lectures, with learning reinforcement happening via classroom discussions rather than via self-study.
• Digital is becoming increasingly embedded in in-person content delivery. Gamification is being used to engage students in applying and testing their learning. Digital simulations and models are allowing students to experiment cheaply and safely.  

2. What if… learning journeys are entirely flexible and customizable?

Imagine that accessing educational content in 2030 is like listening to music via Spotify in 2021. At the touch of a screen, you access catalogs of learning content from the best providers in the world. Algorithms take you deeper into topics of interest and artificial intelligence matches learning activities with your current knowledge levels, learning preferences, career aspirations and learning goals.

Signposts from today

• Benchmark studies, such as the UK’s Student Academic Experience Survey (pdf), show that the proportion of dissatisfied students is growing and the proportion of satisfied students is declining. If customer choice and switching become as easy as they are in other industries, universities will no longer be able to ignore customer satisfaction.
• Universities around the world are cocreating bespoke programs for specific employers or to satisfy emerging workplace needs. But, just as fast, employers are providing their own accredited training in areas of innovation because universities have been too slow to do so.
• Pathways are starting to blur. In the US, to reduce the cost of their degrees, many students are undertaking their first two years in a community college (or completing general studies while still in high school) before transferring into a more prestigious university to graduate.

3. What if… higher education providers are accountable for results?

Imagine that investing in knowledge in 2030 is as easy as investing in exchange-traded funds in 2021. All the programs on your independent career platform are independently rated based on inputs and outcomes declared by learning providers. Inputs include teacher-student ratios, and the amount, nature and quality of teaching and evaluation methods. Outcomes go beyond academic attainment and skills acquisition, covering a graduate’s employability and earning potential. 

Signposts from today

• Already, some online course providers provide a “pass or your money back” guarantee.
• Detailed comparative metrics on the outcomes for providers and their courses are available from a mix of salary data, from the market and statistics, and from regulators or industry bodies.
• Attempts to measure educational value addition are becoming increasingly sophisticated. In the UK, K-12 schools are measured in terms of a value-added score, on the basis of math, reading scores and progress, which feeds into the published rankings that parents use to select schools. In the US, the National Center for Education Statistics publishes data on retention and graduation rates. 

4. What if… commercialized research pays for itself? 

Imagine that revenue from commercialized research in 2030 is sufficient to allow research to pay for itself. Universities have a clear understanding of what research lends itself to commercialization, gain access to private equity capital and participate in rich innovation ecosystems, facilitated by venture studios. Government funding focuses more on solving the major societal issues that the private sector cannot tackle alone, or on pure research to boost national competitiveness.

Signposts from today

• The outlook for government funding for research remains positive. Yet, every university we spoke to told us that government funding does not cover the costs. So, in the face of financial pressures, universities need to seek additional potential revenue streams.
• In Australia, the Prime Minister has recently announced the Universities Trailblazer program.  It will invest AU$247m in the creation of university research hubs, incentivizing researchers to collaborate across institutions and in partnership with businesses, for greater commercialization. This will help Australia to address the challenges of national importance, such as defense, clean energy and medical products.
• In the US, academic researchers are collaborating in entities, such as Boston’s CIMIT consortium, which includes academic medical centers, universities, and a growing network of national and international affiliates who collaborate to drive health care technology commercialization.

5. What if… technology could solve the global supply-demand mismatch? 

Imagine that, in 2030, a talented postgraduate engineering student in Luanda (Angola) could access the best, leading-edge teaching from the recognized leader in her field, without having to leave her hometown. Her self-accessed, remote learning is supplemented with occasional trips to her local campus for instructor-led teaching, delivered via video link from her professor in the US, or to use the campus laboratories.  Her course fees are comparable to those of a local university degree, but she leaves with sought-after, recognized and internationally transferable credentials.