Migration at a crossroads-The evolution of emigration and immigration in Romania within the global system

Migration is a key factor that influences economies, supply chains, access to talent, and business productivity. Globally, population mobility is increasing, driven both by the uncertain geopolitical context and by economic disparities. In the European Union, these developments are amplified by an aging population and a labor shortage

In recent decades, global migration has increased at an accelerated pace, reaching over 300 million people worldwide. Global data shows that 48% of migrants are women, and approximately 13% are children. Although many leave in search of a better life, the reality is that far too many end up in hopeless situations, vulnerable to exploitation. Hundreds of thousands of people end up becoming victims of human trafficking, and more than 70% of them are women.

Whether we talk about legal or illegal migration, the majority of human trafficking victims are women, and this represents one of the harshest realities of our time. The business environment in Romania has the responsibility to treat this risk with the utmost seriousness. Companies must carefully verify whom they recruit and with which intermediaries or third‑party firms they collaborate to bring in workers, so as to avoid any involvement, even indirect, in situations of exploitation. Such negligence can affect brand reputation, profitability, and, in extreme cases, even the continuity of the company.

The exodus: costs and gains

Over the past 20 years, Romania’s population has decreased by approximately 2.3 million people, which represents a reduction of about 11% of the resident population between 2005 and 2025. In reality, there is a strong possibility that the number of residents is even lower, considering that many Romanians who left the country have an uncertain status.

According to INSSE data, the most significant annual decline in the number of residents was recorded in 2008, one year after Romania’s accession to the European Union and during a period of global economic crisis, when nearly 500,000 Romanians chose to leave for countries such as Spain, Italy, Germany, or France, these being the main destinations for work and relocation within the EU.

Between 2005 and 2025, Romania’s resident population not only decreased, but also aged significantly. In 2005, the base of the demographic pyramid showed a solid number of births and a substantial young population. This structure generated more children in the education system and a high potential for future adults active in the labor market. They can create added value, meet companies’ workforce needs, contribute to budget revenues through taxes and duties, and thus financially support the number of pensioners in Romania. But over the past 20 years, the trend has been negative.

In 2025, the population pyramid is almost inverted, with the share of elderly people and pensioners having increased significantly. The median age of the resident population rose from 37 years in 2005 to 42 years in 2025. In just two decades, the base of the age pyramid has narrowed, indicating a considerably lower birth rate compared to 2005. At the same time, the young and working‑age segment, especially the population up to 40 years old has decreased as a result of massive emigration to other countries.

This demographic structure places increasing pressure on the healthcare system, which is confronted with the needs of an aging population, and severely strains the pension budget, which is becoming more and more difficult to sustain with a young workforce that is declining as a share of the population. For the Romanian business environment, this demographic reality represents an enormous risk due to challenges in retaining employees, but especially because of the growing difficulty in improving workforce efficiency.

Emigration

Emigration has become one of the defining phenomena of post‑communist Romania and has profoundly reshaped society, the economy, and local communities. Millions of Romanians have chosen to emigrate, which has had mostly negative effects, but also some positive ones. Over the years, the number of temporary emigrants from Romania has fluctuated but has consistently remained high. Between 2008 and 2024, the annual average number of emigrants was 213,651.

In 2025, the population pyramid is almost inverted, with the share of elderly people and pensioners having increased significantly. The median age of the resident population rose from 37 years in 2005 to 42 years in 2025. In just two decades, the base of the age pyramid has narrowed, indicating a considerably lower birth rate compared to 2005. At the same time, the young and working‑age segment, especially the population up to 40 years old has decreased as a result of massive emigration to other countries.

This demographic structure places increasing pressure on the healthcare system, which is confronted with the needs of an aging population, and severely strains the pension budget, which is becoming more and more difficult to sustain with a young workforce that is declining as a share of the population. For the Romanian business environment, this demographic reality represents an enormous risk due to challenges in retaining employees, but especially because of the growing difficulty in improving workforce efficiency.

Between 2008 and 2024, temporary emigration had a strongly pronounced young profile, with individuals aged up to 39 consistently accounting for more than 60% of all temporary emigrants. Within this segment, the population under 20 fluctuated between 14% and 20%, while adults aged 20–39 consistently exceeded the 50% threshold, reaching a peak of 64% in 2015.

Since 2017, however, we observe a structural shift, with the share of people aged 40–59 beginning to increase more significantly, and in the long term the emigration profile has been undergoing a process of aging. A long‑term analysis for 2008–2024 shows that while the share of those aged up to 19 decreases by approximately 1%, and the 20-39 age group shrinks by about 12%, the 40-59 and 60+ age groups register increases of 9% and 5%, respectively. These trends indicate a gradual shift of the core group of temporary emigrants toward older age categories.

A relevant and exemplary case is Poland, which, thanks to its sustained pace of economic growth, has succeeded in bringing back into the country tens of thousands of citizens who had left to work in more developed economies. The Polish government has implemented a series of measures designed to encourage their return, including financial support, housing assistance, subsidies to cover housing‑related needs, 90‑day access to publicly funded medical services, as well as professional activation programs and employment support initiatives, among others.

In addition, through the Polish Returns Programme, the Polish National Agency for Academic Exchange (NAWA) facilitates the return of outstanding Polish researchers to the country by offering them employment opportunities in universities, scientific institutes, and research centers. The program creates optimal conditions for carrying out research or development activities at international standards, financing both the salaries of returning researchers and the costs required to form project teams.

Immigration

In parallel with the massive emigration of romanians, Romania has increasingly begun to take shape as a destination country for foreign workers, refugees, and other categories of immigrants. In recent years, companies have turned more and more to the workforce coming from various parts of the world, especially from Asia, to cover labor shortages in sectors such as construction, HoReCa, manufacturing, and logistics, among others. This phenomenon is becoming a strategic topic in discussions related to Romania’s labor resources, competitiveness, and sustainability, both in the short and long term.

The analysis of the difference between the number of emigrants and temporary immigrants during the 2008-2024 period indicates a predominantly negative migratory balance, with an average of -31,459 people per year over the past 16 years. Until 2021, the balance consistently showed a higher number of departures than arrivals, which placed significant pressure on the labor market and the active demographic structure. Starting in 2022, the dynamic reversed, and during the 2022-2024 interval, Romania recorded, for the first time in many years, a positive migratory balance, with more immigrants than emigrants. This shift creates a concrete opportunity to strengthen the talent base and support economic growth. However, maintaining this trend depends on the country’s capacity for integration and the long‑term attractiveness of its economic environment.

Immigrants arriving in Romania generally have an age distribution comparable to that of the population that emigrated, which reflects a natural dynamic: inflows tend to cover part of the gaps created by departures, particularly in the labor market. Data confirms that the young segment dominates these flows, as companies primarily seek an active workforce. Between 2008 and 2024, the number of temporary immigrants aged up to 39 increased by 79%, and in just the last four years (2020-2024) the increase reached 84%, signaling a recent acceleration of this trend.

A relevant aspect is the noticeable increase in immigration among older age groups, which often includes Romanians returning to the country after many years of working abroad. In the 60+ age group, the number of immigrants increased by 464% between 2008-2024, and in the 40-59 age group by 151%. Many of them return upon retirement or in the years leading up to retirement and bring with them professional experience, working standards, and skills developed in mature markets.

Companies in Romania can turn this trend into a competitive advantage if they act proactively through reintegration programs, openness to flexible roles such as part‑time arrangements, project‑based work, mentoring, knowledge transfer, and upskilling pathways that can quickly use the contribution of these individuals, even when their remaining working horizon is shorter. In this way, companies reduce the skills gap and increase productivity, without treating the return of these groups as just another statistical trend.

The conflict in Ukraine

Armed conflicts accelerate migration, as people leave affected areas quickly to protect their families, seek safety, and secure access to basic services, with flows naturally moving toward neighboring countries. Romania experienced this mechanism firsthand with the outbreak of the large‑scale conflict in Ukraine in February 2022.

The European Union quickly implemented support measures for people displaced from Ukraine and activated the Temporary Protection Directive, granting accelerated access to residence rights, services, and the labor market. In July 2025, the European Council approved the extension of the Temporary Protection Directive (TPD) until March 4, 2027, ensuring the continued right of residence and employment for Ukrainian citizens in the EU. The directive provides Ukrainians affected by the conflict with protection and access to rights within the EU, including the right to reside, access to the labor market, housing, social assistance, and medical care. This latest extension does not change the March 2022 decision regarding the categories of people eligible for protection. Moreover, the European Council and the European Commission have encouraged member states to develop sustainable solutions in key areas such as transitioning to other forms of legal stay, supporting voluntary return, and strengthening ongoing integration initiatives.

According to data available at the European level for November 2023, more than 4 million Ukrainians were benefiting from this mechanism within the EU, while Romania had 144,295 registered beneficiaries. In other words, Romania was hosting approximately 3.4% of the total, which suggests that for a significant share of refugees, the country functioned mainly as an entry and transit point. Ukrainians preferred to move on to stronger European economies, where income opportunities, integration prospects, and medium‑term stability are generally more attractive, and where, similar to Romanians, they likely already had relatives or acquaintances who had emigrated.

Digital nomads

In Romania, immigration has emerged primarily as a response to the labor shortage generated by the emigration of the active population. In practice, a significant share of immigrants are employed in sectors and roles where qualification requirements remain moderate, precisely to quickly fill positions that are difficult to occupy locally.

At the same time, however, a global trend is beginning to take shape that may bring changes to the profile of immigration. This may occur through the increasing number of digital nomads, professionals with advanced skills who work remotely and choose their place of residence based on cost of living, infrastructure quality, and the stability of the business environment.

Estimates place the annual economic value of the global digital‑nomad community at approximately US$787 billion, an amount of income and consumption that could generate direct benefits for Romania, if the country succeeds in attracting a larger share of it.

The wave of digital nomads was embraced by Estonia, Portugal, and Croatia as early as 2020, while in the Czech Republic, the Key and Research Staff program simplifies the entire process of obtaining visas and residence permits for foreign experts in management or research roles. The authorities significantly reduce processing times and provide fast‑track access to permits for their family members, facilitating an efficient transition into the new professional environment.

Also in the Czech Republic, the Digital Nomad initiative attracts IT professionals and freelancers who can work remotely from the country, benefiting from a special visa valid for up to one year. This approach strengthens the Czech Republic’s position as a modern destination for dynamic and mobile talent.

In Poland, the Poland.Business Harbour program has become a strategic relocation tool for IT specialists, start-ups, and technology companies. The program provides comprehensive support for obtaining visas, socio‑economic integration, and rapid connection to the local business ecosystem, thereby reducing entry barriers for investors and professionals.

Romania officially introduced the ‘digital nomad’ category through Law No. 22/2022, which amends Government Emergency Ordinance No. 194/2002 on the regime of foreigners creating the legal framework for a dedicated visa program. This mechanism allows professionals who work remotely for companies outside the country to live and carry out their activity temporarily from Romania, providing a clear basis for attracting international talent and stimulating local consumption.