1. Two economies at either end of the growth charts in 2020
ROI was the fastest growing economy in the world last year, despite its domestic contraction, while NI was one of the weakest. This pattern of divergence is not shared across all economic indicators.
2. Similar labour market disruption
Labour market disruption was more severe in ROI based on official data. However, NI will take longer to recover to peak employment levels.
3. A spending surge is coming
There has been a sharp increase in savings built up across the island. How and when these will be spent will factor into the recovery for many businesses which have been effectively closed for a prolonged period.
4. The sustained period of low-price inflation may be over
There are a number of factors that could drive up inflation from its historically low levels.
5. Tough times ahead for policymakers
Deciding on the timing of reopening and the reduction or removal of pandemic-related supports presents a significant political challenge.
6. A new era of investment is on the horizon
Firms and governments increasingly want multi-location strategies and public investment is set to remain high. The island of Ireland is well placed to benefit from both of these trends.