Rising GLP-1 use could reshape how millions of Australians eat, shop and spend

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA – 15 JULY 2026

More than seven million Australian adults could be using GLP-1 medicines by 2036 according to EY-Parthenon modelling, with rising uptake expected to reshape consumer behaviour and create new challenges and opportunities for businesses.

One in 10 Australian adults currently report using GLP-1 medicines, according to an EY Studio+ survey of 9,202 adults, while projections indicate adoption may reach between 17 and 30 per cent of the adult population over the next decade, depending on how access, affordability and policy settings evolve.

Lisa Nijssen-Smith, EY Regional Consumer Products & Retail Leader, Oceania, said increasing GLP-1 use was already beginning to alter consumption patterns, from healthier grocery choices to fewer restaurant visits and increased spending on wardrobe refreshes.

“While GLP-1 and related medicines have their origins in diabetes treatment, Australians are now using them in increasing numbers for health and weight management,” she said.

“Even at today’s level of use, the implications for Australian businesses are already visible.”

“GLP-1 users surveyed said they were dining out 44 per cent less, which means hospitality venues may need to think differently about value, experience and the role food plays in a night out.”

“The survey also points to a clear shift in alcohol demand, with 70 per cent of GLP-1 users saying they were less likely to want alcohol and reported alcoholic beverage consumption falling by 41 per cent. That adds to broader shifts already underway in how Australians drink and gives alcohol retailers another trend to watch closely.”

The research also shows changes in discretionary spending, particularly across fashion and beauty.

“More than two-thirds of GLP-1 users surveyed (67 per cent) said their motivation to refresh their wardrobe had increased since starting treatment and 57 per cent had increased their spending on clothes,” Nijssen-Smith said.

“In addition to demand for new clothing as consumers stabilise at new sizes, there may be greater need for flexible, adjustable or transitional clothing as body shapes change.”

GLP-1 users also report paying greater attention to self-care, with more than half (53 per cent) saying their focus on skincare and grooming has increased since starting treatment, while nearly four in 10 (39 per cent) say purchasing beauty products has become more enjoyable.

While several retail categories are beginning to see the effects, supermarkets and food manufacturers are likely to face some of the most direct impacts as consumers become more selective about what they eat and buy.

“For supermarkets and food manufacturers, the shift is not only about people buying less. It is about the mix of products changing as consumers become more selective about what they eat and drink,” Nijssen-Smith said.

“GLP-1 users are becoming more deliberate about what earns a place in the shopping basket. They are buying more fresh, protein-rich and health-oriented foods, and less alcohol, snacks and processed products.”

The research also found the effects can extend beyond the person taking the medicine.

“More than half of GLP-1 users surveyed (51 per cent) said changes in their food purchases had influenced the eating habits of others in their household, which is likely because the person taking the medicine is often also the person doing the grocery shop,” Nijssen-Smith said.

“If that shop shifts towards more fresh produce, protein-rich foods, lower-sugar drinks and fewer discretionary snacks, everyone eating from the same fridge is likely to share in that healthier basket.”

EY-Parthenon modelled three possible adoption pathways for GLP-1 medicines in Australia, reflecting how access, affordability, clinical confidence, treatment formats and policy settings could shape uptake over the next decade.

Under the most conservative scenario, adoption would reach 17.1 per cent of Australian adults within a decade, assuming current settings continue and uptake continues to grow at an average rate of around 0.4 per cent a year.

Under a policy reform scenario, adoption would reach 24.1 per cent of Australian adults within a decade if GLP-1 medicines for weight management become more affordable and accessible through PBS approval and convenient oral formulations.

The highest-growth scenario, which produces the modelling estimate of more than seven million Australian adult users, would see adoption reach 30.1 per cent of Australian adults in a decade. It assumes PBS approval expands GLP-1 use to include weight loss and secondary morbidities, such as hypertension and heart disease. As patients find the right dose over time, they are more likely to stay on treatment, reducing drop-off rates and supporting higher long-term adoption.

More than half of surveyed Australians (57 per cent) said they would prefer a pill-based GLP-1 option, suggesting oral formulations could play an important role in broadening uptake.

“The effects of GLP-1 medicines on Australia’s consumer economy are already visible and are likely to become more pronounced as access evolves and adoption increases over the coming decade,” Nijssen-Smith said.

“Businesses should be thinking now about how changing appetites could affect demand, and where their products and services fit in a shifting consumer landscape.”

“Whether it is a restaurant rethinking menu formats or a clothing retailer reviewing its size mix, businesses that understand these shifts early will be best placed for the future.”

-ENDS-

Research methodology

EY Studio+ teams conducted a nationally representative survey of 9,202 Australian adults between January and February 2026. The survey explored awareness, usage and behavioural changes associated with GLP-1 medicines, including impacts on food purchasing and consumption.

EY-Parthenon, the strategy and transactions advisory business within the EY organisation, developed a set of adoption scenarios to estimate the potential uptake of GLP-1 medicines in Australia over time. The modelling considered factors such as pricing, access, clinical pathways and adherence to treatment.

These two approaches provide complementary perspectives. The survey captured early behavioural signals and consumer experiences, reflecting adoption at the time, while the modelling indicated potential long-term adoption scenarios under different market conditions.

Together, they offer a more complete view of how GLP-1 medicines may influence consumer behaviour and what that could mean for food, grocery, retail and hospitality businesses.

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Media Contact:

Hamish Goodall – Corporate Affairs Manager, Oceania
Phone: 0467 346 364
Email: Hamish.goodall@au.ey.com