Key dates confirmed
The Government has announced that:
- Budget 2026 will be delivered on 28 May – Beehive release here
- The 2026 General Election will be held on 7 November – Beehive release here
Economic update
Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2025 and Budget Policy Statement 2026
On 16 December 2025, Treasury published the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2025 (HYEFU) and Budget Policy Statement 2026.
HYEFU shows the economy is forecast to grow 1.7% in 2025/26 and 3.4% in 2026/27. However, it also indicates a deterioration in the Crown’s financial position relative to previous forecasts. The operating balance before gains and losses excluding ACC (OBEGALx) is forecast to deteriorate to a deficit of $13.9 billion in 2025/26, which will be the largest OBEGALx deficit as a share of gross domestic product since the 2019/20 year. The OBEGALx is forecast to return to surplus in 2029/30, a year later than previously forecast.
With the results of HYEFU in mind, the Budget Policy Statement sets four priorities for Budget 2026:
- Supporting the delivery of core public services such as health care, education and law and order. Finance Minister Nicola Willis notes that beyond these areas, “…any new funding will need to be found from savings and reprioritisation.”
- Tight control of discretionary government spending while funding a limited number of priority Government policy commitments.
- Addressing longer-term productivity challenges.
- Developing a sustainable pipeline of infrastructure investments.
For more information, see the Treasury website here and here, and related Beehive release here.
Interim Financial Statements of the Government
Treasury has published the Interim Financial Statements of the Government for the five months ended 30 November 2025. Key figures include:
- Tax revenue of $49.1 billion, which was $0.2 billion (0.4%) lower than forecast. Corporate tax and GST tax revenue was 4.9% and 1.2% lower-than-forecast, respectively.
- Operating balance before gains and losses (excluding ACC) deficit of $5.6 billion, which was $1.1 billion less than the forecast deficit.
Refer to the Treasury media release here for more information.
Other updates
Other updates include:
- New Zealand and India have concluded a Free Trade Agreement, eliminating or reducing tariffs on 95% of New Zealand’s exports. For more information, refer to the Beehive release here.
- The Education and Workforce Select Committee has reported back on the Employment Relations Amendment Bill, which includes changes intended to clarify the definitions of ‘employee’ and ‘contractor’. The Select Committee has recommended refinements to the gateway test criteria for contractors to provide clarity on the types of contracting arrangements covered, including platform-based arrangements. For more information, see the Beehive release here. The progress of this Bill may be of particular interest following a recent Supreme Court decision which found four individuals to be employees rather than independent contractors.
- The Government is proposing additional reductions to costs for forest owners in the Emissions Trading Scheme Registry. See the Beehive release here.
- The Climate Change Response (2050 Target and Other Matters) Amendment Bill has been enacted, resetting the biogenic methane target to 14-24% below 2017 levels by 2050. Further information is available in the Beehive release here.