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Operational resilience 2026: progress vs. pressure

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Rules are live. Risks are rising. Here’s what boards must act on in 2026.


In brief

  • DORA has applied since 17 January 2025, FINMA 2023/1 embedded, UK firms beyond Mar‑2025 milestone; firms upgraded governance, mapping, testing, TPRM.
  • Supervisors warn of rising pressure from third‑party concentration, cyber activity and change risk. Approximately one‑third of Swiss incidents involve vendors.
  • Priority: one assessment mapped to Basel/DORA/FINMA/PRA‑FCA; routine severe testing; a living framework anchored in standards.

Regulators have made operational resilience tangible. The Digital Operational Resilience Act (DORA) has been in force since January 2025. FINMA’s Circular on Operational Risk and Resilience is embedded across Swiss financial institutions. In the UK, firms are now operating beyond the March 2025 milestone under the Prudential Regulation Authority’s framework.

Progress is visible. Critical business services have been mapped and impact tolerances defined. ICT incident management has been strengthened. Third‑party inventories have been formalized and governance updated. Concepts once confined to policy documents are now firmly established in boardroom discussions.

Yet a strategic paradox is emerging. As compliance maturity improves, the environment in which firms must remain resilient has become more volatile, more digital and more interconnected. Dependency chains are deeper. Change velocity is higher. Incidents increasingly propagate through shared infrastructure and common service providers.

Compliance has risen. Operational resilience has not kept pace. The result is a widening gap between what firms can demonstrate on paper and what they can withstand in practice. Closing that gap is now a strategic priority for boards in 2026.

The risk landscape has shifted

Supervisory and industry risk indicators send a consistent signal: operational resilience risk is accelerating, not declining. FINMA continues to highlight outsourcing, cyber and ICT risks as defining drivers of vulnerability in the Swiss financial sector. As critical services migrate to cloud and software‑as‑a‑service (SaaS) providers, concentration risk has become a systemic concern rather than a theoretical one.

Cyber threats continue to rise in frequency and sophistication. Attacks increasingly exploit shared infrastructure, allowing a single event to affect multiple institutions simultaneously. Legacy technology, insufficient maintenance and poor data quality further amplify fragility. Governance alone cannot compensate for structural weaknesses in complex environments.

At a global level, threat intelligence and macro‑risk analysis converge on the same conclusion. Supply‑chain interdependencies have become one of the largest structural barriers to resilience across sectors. Financial services, with their reliance on a concentrated group of global technology providers, are particularly exposed. At the same time, rapid cloud adoption, real‑time digital platforms and AI‑driven automation are compressing change cycles faster than control frameworks can mature. The result is an accumulation of risk debt that compounds with every release and transformation initiative.

It is striking that a third of the cyberattacks reported to FINMA have an indirect impact on financial institutions via affected third parties.

Incidents that defined the risk landscape

Recent incidents underline how these structural vulnerabilities manifest in practice. Major outages at hyperscalers have demonstrated that control‑plane and DNS automation can become single points of failure with global impact. Supply‑chain ransomware incidents have disrupted critical distribution and operational services without directly targeting financial institutions themselves.

 

The 2024 CrowdStrike-Microsoft outage illustrated that concentration risk extends even to trusted security controls. A faulty automated update, rather than a cyberattack, caused widespread disruption across banks, airlines, hospitals and exchanges. Recovery depended on manual intervention at scale, something few organizations were prepared for or had rehearsed.

 

Supervisory responses reinforce that resilience is not purely technical. FINMA’s decision to withdraw the banking license of a Swiss institution in 2026, citing serious and systematic governance and risk‑management deficiencies, demonstrated the willingness of supervisors to impose existential consequences where operational control frameworks fail.

These incidents share a common thread: They were not primarily caused by inadequate regulation. They were caused by structural vulnerabilities that regulation alone cannot close. Three of those vulnerabilities deserve particular attention.

Top three structural vulnerabilities

1. Vulnerability: the innovation - security gap

Financial services are accelerating toward fully digital, automated and AI-enabled operating models at a pace without historical precedent. Cloud adoption, API ecosystems, real-time platforms, robotic process automation and generative AI are shortening change cycles and expanding the technological footprint of the average institution at an extraordinary rate.

Security functions are not keeping pace. They are expanding, but more slowly, more incrementally and with proportionally less investment than the technology capabilities they are expected to protect. The structural consequence is a growing control gap: The attack surface is expanding faster than the defensive perimeter can be drawn. Each new capability introduced without commensurate security maturity becomes latent risk, accumulating quietly until it transitions from invisible exposure to realized impact.

2. Vulnerability: Third-party dependency and supply chain fragility

No financial institution operates in isolation. The modern operating model is built on dense web of third-party dependencies: cloud hyperscalers, software vendors, payment processors, data providers, outsourced operations and niche technology specialists. This structure delivers efficiency and scale but it also creates systemic exposure qualitatively different from traditional operational risk.

The MOVEit breach demonstrated how a single vulnerability in a widely used tool can simultaneously compromise hundreds of organizations across industries. The ION Group ransomware attack showed that a niche but critical vendor can disrupt derivatives trading across major institutions in multiple countries. The CrowdStrike outage illustrated that even trusted, well-regarded security providers can become the source of systemic disruption without any malicious intent.

DORA’s ICT third-party risk management requirements reflect this reality directly: Firms must maintain detailed registers of ICT providers, conduct due diligence as well as contractual assurance, and demonstrate viable exit strategies. FINMA’s expectations align closely. But regulatory requirements have outpaced institutional capabilities in many cases.

The deeper challenge is sub-outsourcing what practitioners increasingly call nth-party risk. Institutions often have reasonable visibility into their direct vendors. They rarely have meaningful visibility into what those vendors depend on. A Tier-1 bank may be confident in its primary cloud provider; however, it may have no visibility into the third-party security software that the provider relies upon. The SolarWinds attack, in which a compromised software build process allowed attackers to distribute malicious updates to thousands of organizations globally, remains the clearest illustration of how deep the exposure chain can run.

3. Vulnerability: Governance fragmentation - When the framework works against you

There is a third vulnerability that receives comparatively little attention, but which may be the most consequential: the fragmentation and misalignment of internal control frameworks.

As organizations have grown, merged and digitalized over the past decade, their governance structures have accumulated layer upon layer of control functions. Operational risk, cyber security, business continuity management, IT risk, data management and third-party oversight have each developed their own frameworks, methodologies, tools and reporting lines often in parallel, sometimes in direct conflict, and rarely in genuine integration.

The consequences are predictable and costly. Risks exist that no function clearly owns. The same controls are tested multiple times by different teams. Accountability in a crisis is ambiguous. Risk appetite statements and tolerances are inconsistent across functions, making consolidated board reporting unreliable. When a disruption occurs, decision making slows at precisely the moment speed is most critical.

DORA and FINMA’s resilience circular both require alignment between cyber risk management and broader operational risk governance; but translating regulatory requirement into organizational reality is a transformation program, not a policy update. Many institutions have made progress on individual frameworks, while the integration between them remains materially incomplete.

As organizations now adopt generative AI, expand multi-cloud environments and extend outsourcing. These fragmented frameworks face new and compounding demands. New risks enter the organization faster than governance structures can absorb them. Blind spots multiply. And when the next incident occurs, as it will, the quality of the institutional response depends entirely on whether the governance architecture is coherent enough to act.

Third‑party exposure
97%
of top 100 US banks experienced a third‑party breach in 2024; many also faced fourth‑party exposure.

Three strategic responses - from assessment to action

With regulatory compliance pressure increasing, threats evolving and digitalization accelerating, there is a genuine risk of losing strategic focus of chasing compliance checkboxes while structural vulnerabilities deepen. The institutions that will lead are those that choose clarity over complexity, honesty over performance, and integrated action over siloed effort. The following three pillars define that approach:

Know your true current state

Resilience cannot be managed from an incomplete picture. Leading organizations are shifting toward integrated, end‑to‑end assessments that cut across technology, people, processes, third‑party dependencies and governance. The objective is not a compliance snapshot, but a board‑ready diagnostic that clearly shows gaps, duplication and blind spots against risk appetite and regulatory expectations.

Test before you fail

Testing is not an activity reserved for mature frameworks. It is the mechanism through which maturity is built. Regular simulations, tabletop exercises and severe scenario tests validate whether impact tolerances are realistic, response teams understand their roles and third parties perform under stress. Honest results, including uncomfortable ones, belong in the boardroom and must directly inform remediation and investment decisions.

Build a smart, living resilience framework

Resilient organizations do not introduce yet another framework. They integrate what already exists. A smart framework brings cyber, operational, business continuity and third‑party risk together under a coherent architecture aligned to international standards and regulatory expectations. It is designed to adapt as threats, technology and regulation evolve, supported by meaningful metrics and regular independent review.

Conclusion: Compliance is the floor, not the ceiling

Regulation has raised the baseline for operational resilience and driven genuine progress. But the threat environment is moving faster than regulatory cycles. Cyber activity, third‑party concentration and accelerated change are increasing the likelihood and impact of disruption.

The institutions that will lead over the next three to five years will not be those with the most comprehensive documentation. They will be those that understand their true current state, test assumptions relentlessly and operate governance frameworks that are integrated, practical and alive. Compliance may be mandatory. Resilience remains a strategic choice.

Summary

Regulators have made resilience real. But risk is rising faster; through vendor concentration, cyber activity and complex change releases. This article sets out a 2026 playbook: a single current‑state assessment mapped to Basel/DORA/FINMA/FCA‑PRA; routine severe testing including vendors; and a smart framework that keeps controls simple, modular and adaptive while staying risk‑based and taking a two‑speed approach.

Acknowledgement

Many thanks to Melvin Carmona and Katrina McAuliffe for their valuable contribution to this article.


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