Turning volatility into opportunity for Irish business

Explore how Irish businesses can turn geopolitical volatility into opportunity in a turbulent trade environment.

Turning volatility into opportunity for Irish business

In the third episode of our Geostrategic Edge series, Simon MacAllister Co-Head of Geopolitical Strategy. EY Ireland Strategy and Transactions Partner sat down with Adam L. Barbina, EY-Parthenon US Geostrategy Leader, to unpack one of the most turbulent trade environments in decades. With tariffs rising, energy security under strain, and geopolitical rivalries reshaping globalisation, the conversation focused on what all this means for Ireland and Europe – and how businesses can turn uncertainty into advantage.

A “hot trade summer”

As Adam noted, the summer has been anything but quiet. Since the start of the year, the average tariff rate on goods entering the US has jumped from around 3% to nearly 18%. For Irish exporters, that means the old assumption of “zero tariffs” is gone – with 15% now seen as the new baseline. This is part of a wider reorientation of globalisation, where trade corridors are shifting and friction is becoming the norm.

The drivers are clear. The second Trump administration is pursuing its America First agenda, with policies shaped around three priorities: national security, investment in the US, and jobs. That means tighter compliance expectations, from forced labour rules to supply chain transparency. It also means greater pressure on international partners, including Ireland, to demonstrate how their investment and innovation align with US goals.

Great power competition reshaping markets

The US-EU-China triangle now defines the future of global trade. Policymakers across all three blocs are pursuing “economic security” and “sovereignty” – reducing reliance on rivals, boosting industrial policy, and pushing for more self-sufficiency. For pharmaceuticals and technology in particular, this could mean both new restrictions and new opportunities for Ireland.

Adam stressed that Ireland is well placed to benefit from nearshoring and friendshoring strategies as US and EU companies seek trusted partners outside China. But the challenge for multinationals is no longer just “China for China” or “US for US” – it’s about having an enterprise-wide geostrategy that balances competing demands across multiple jurisdictions.