Four Futures, one path to prosperity: unlocking the new economy

Businesses and policymakers must transform to the new economy. How can we unlock its full potential?

In brief

• Ecological and societal collapse is looming, and the link between GDP growth, social welfare and long-term environmental viability is undeniable.
• While what we should move away from is clear, we must also agree on how we should move toward a new economy.
• Putting sustainability at the core of your business does not jeopardize profitability. On the contrary, it creates new opportunities.

A holistic approach is now more urgent than ever to ensure good living circumstances for all. We are at a critical inflection point. An ecological, human and geoeconomic polycrisis is firming its grip on our global economy. The cumulative effect of these intertwined crises jeopardizes humanity’s future. The Four Futures concept underpins the need to move beyond conventional sustainability to unlock a new regenerative economy through deep business and societal transformation.

At the end of October 2025, the Four Futures event brought together over 100 EY employees and more than 200 policymakers and decision-makers across industries for an immersive journey into the future three decades from now. Experts showcased four possible futures through AI visualization, based on the scientific climate research of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The message of the Four Futures event was clear: ‘If not now, then when?’ Afterwards, the participants were invited to exchange valuable insights toward a way forward. What were the key takeaways?
 

1. Breaking the triangle of inaction

Looking at the future reinforces the urgency of taking action now. Yet responsibility keeps bouncing around, from investors and policymakers to clients and citizens. Who will take the truly bold step forward?

Many governments and companies are taking action, yet the impact has been minimal. How do we break the cycle? Addressing systemic flaws requires a shared effort. We need to completely rethink today’s societal model, embracing a new economic paradigm based on deep collaboration. This transformation is now critical to building an entirely new economy.

Moving toward value networks

Achieving this transformation requires systems thinking. It means grasping complexity by understanding how the whole system works, and how its parts are interconnected and influence one another. For businesses, this entails understanding their position and role within the system, moving beyond one-size-fits-all solutions and shifting from their individual value chains perspective to broader value networks.
 

Creating a triangle of action

These value networks thrive on cross-system engagement and co-creation. Simultaneous and joint moves by businesses, financial investors, and regulators trigger a network effect that stimulates further action, bringing other players on board. Inertia will shift into positive change, accelerating progress toward a new economy with immense potential.

Such a shift to a new economy can significantly reduce CO₂ emissions, waste, and our dependence on critical raw materials, while unlocking economic and social value. Businesses that fully embrace their Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) transformation by forging disruptive models and value propositions will profit from emerging opportunities. They will effectively manage risks and outperform their peers. And in doing so, ensure they survive and thrive in a future that will look radically different from today.
 

2. Regulation as a catalyst

Regulation may not answer every question, but it is a catalyst for systemic change. It drives awareness, mobilizes actions and contributes to accelerating transformation, even if it sometimes adds complexity.

One example is the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD). The pressure to comply was at first seen as a complex administrative burden, but many companies are discovering the opportunities and benefits.

• The legislation creates a level playing field. Everyone has to comply with the same rules and standards.
• It helps to showcase sustainability initiatives and results, and turn strengths into strong Unique Selling Propositions (USPs).  
• The CSRD boosts collaboration and information sharing. Companies have started to work together to explore new models and set up pilot projects, creating new collaborative and innovative ecosystems.
• It helps companies map their risks, results, and opportunities more thoroughly. This leads to sharper insights into their businesses, helps identify priorities and ultimately better prepares them for the future by integrating sustainability in their strategies and redefining their business models.
• CSRD breaks down internal silos. From finance departments to sustainability teams and operations, everybody is brought around the table to work on the same goals.
   

The EU is a frontrunner in climate regulation but accounts for only 6% of global emissions. To move faster toward a radical shift, we need more regulation. Unfortunately, current discussions seem to be heading in the opposite direction. Real change, however, also demands worldwide regulation to achieve the global transformation that is needed.
 

A more proactive approach, focused on what really counts

When markets fail to align with what truly drives value for society, governments tend to intervene, as shown by the rise in sustainability regulations. Their objective is to help companies thrive in the future. It is therefore in businesses’ best interest to step up, as the critical link between policymakers and standard-setters, to ensure that what they measure, report, and use in strategy and risk management is both relevant and useful for decision-making.

To stay ahead, businesses must go beyond compliance and reimagine how they create, deliver, and capture value. From strategy to product development, sustainability should shape every stage of the business. ‘Sustainability by design’ drives innovation and long-term resilience.

Sustainability is already embedded in many decision-making processes. And while the level of ambition is high, it still falls short of what climate science demands. That is why radical ambition and clear priorities are key to driving results.
 

3. Redefining value: profitability and sustainability must coexist

The traditional model of value creation still prevails, with economic growth, GDP, and revenue increases continuing to be the primary drivers for measuring success. This is the moment to take a strategic pause and rethink business models that align profitability with positive environmental and social impact.
 

Multidimensional value framework

Does this mean discarding financial metrics entirely? No, we need to reframe them as a means, not an end. Financial capital is only one pillar of a thriving economy and society. A regenerative economy integrates financial, social, and environmental performance into a holistic value framework that delivers shared and lasting prosperity for all.
 

Fewer indicators, greater alignment

In many organizations, ESGs and financial goals still operate in isolation. Closing the gap requires mapping financial and ESG priorities to identify where they align and where they conflict. Based on this analysis, companies can define value-creation indicators that work across departments. If sustainability undermines financial performance, or vice versa, change becomes nearly impossible. Success lies in limiting the number of indicators to those that resonate with the CFO, the sustainability team, and other strategic functions.
 

Long-term thinking

When strategies are designed around these indicators, it is crucial that they create lasting benefits. Shifting from short-term thinking to a long-term approach is critical for success in the new economy. Although ESG initiatives often require upfront investment, they ultimately unlock long-term freedom for businesses to operate.

4. Sustainability fatigue, still strong willingness to act

Sustainability fatigue is emerging across industries, government bodies, and society at large. The constant pressure to meet sustainability goals, navigate complex, ever-changing regulations, and keep up with never-ending headlines about climate crises is fueling a sense of exhaustion and disengagement. The sustainability topic is also overshadowed by competitive concerns, geopolitical tensions, and political instability.

But is sustainability really no longer high on the agenda? Not quite, it has simply become more embedded in standard practices. And though it may feel like other priorities—such as the geopolitical landscape putting pressure on financial performance—are taking over, geopolitical dynamics are ultimately ESG indicators.

Even more, companies have not lowered their sustainability ambitions. Capital is flowing and investments are ongoing—although current efforts remain insufficient to enable a radical shift. Even though certain initiatives nibble at profit margins, companies continue to invest because they believe that if everyone makes the same positive shift, it will become the new standard. And others will have no choice but to follow. In the end, sustainability is no longer a question of ‘if’ but ‘how fast’—and those who lead the shift today will define the standards of tomorrow.