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2. Trade war and supply chain redeployment
The ongoing trade war with the US has introduced new compliance and accounting risks. This affects Canadian import and export markets, creating significant uncertainty and disrupting supply chains until a new agreement is negotiated. For example, Canadian metal producers, who export 84% of their base metals valued at C$47.3 billion [1] to the US, became subject to 25% tariffs, then 50% overnight, and these tariffs remain subject to further change as negotiations progress.
As a response to uncertainty, businesses seek to grow or diversify their exports to expand their revenue base. They could find support in these endeavours coming from the federal government, which is attempting to redraw existing trade channels, for example between Europe and Canada, thus providing potential future opportunities for Canadian exporters.
However, businesses will have to navigate complex sustainability-related regulations affecting global trade to secure market access. For example, the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) adds a layer of complexity, asking EU importers to pay for the carbon emissions embedded in goods they import. This requires exporters to have emissions data readily available.
Likewise, Canadian businesses exporting to Asian markets must take into account evolving sustainability reporting regulations in the region. Depending on the jurisdiction, businesses may be required to disclose both financial impacts of sustainability issues and their broader environmental and social effects and prepare sustainability reports accordingly, including climate-related disclosures and greenhouse gas emissions. For example, in 2024 the Chinese Ministry of Finance issued the Basic Guidelines for Corporate Sustainability Disclosure, where the principle of double materiality would be applied. [2]
As trade dynamics shift constantly, Canadian businesses must be prepared not only for uncertainty around tariffs but also for the growing expectation to disclose and manage carbon emissions across their supply chains.
3. Policy changes
Recent elections in Canada and the US signal potential shifts in sustainability policy.
In the US, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) initially drove major clean energy investments, but its future has become increasingly uncertain. The recent enactment of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) marks a significant shift in federal priorities, scaling back or eliminating many of the IRA’s clean energy tax incentives and grant programs, including over US$20 billion in climate-related funding. [3] While some changes may be phased in gradually, the OBBBA signals a move toward a more fragmented policy environment. One where sustainability strategies must be resilient enough to withstand shifting incentives and agile enough to capitalize on emerging opportunities at the state or private sector level.
In Canada, on the other hand, the federal government has set a clear ambition for concerted action, backed by provincial Premiers, to reduce trade barriers between provinces, encourage major infrastructure investments and make Canada an energy superpower. These developments could reshape traditional trade routes and require changes in regulatory frameworks and funding.
A major turning point came with the passage of Bill C-5, the One Canadian Economy Act, which grants the federal cabinet sweeping powers to fast-track large-scale infrastructure and energy projects. Framed as a response to mounting trade tensions with the US, the legislation aims to stimulate economic resilience by accelerating project approvals deemed to be in the national interest. While the government has emphasized that projects aligned with Indigenous leadership, clean growth and sustainable technologies will be prioritized, the bill’s broad scope and discretionary mechanisms raise questions about long-term regulatory certainty, environmental oversight, and the consistency of sustainability commitments.
With policy and sentiment in constant flux, businesses must be prepared to pivot quickly — yet keep their sustainability performance at a level that will enable, rather than hinder, future developments.