Between stability and transformation: Investment prospects in the Swiss real estate market 2026

Read in German, read in French

• 95% expect transaction activity to increase, while 69% expect inflows of international capital.
• 94% see increasing pressure to invest in ESG, while 93% question the added value of labels.
• According to nine out of ten respondents (90%), new construction activity can primarily be boosted through simplified, digitalised building permits and accelerated objection procedures.
• Almost two thirds of respondents (61%) expect office prices to decline in secondary locations, while prices for logistics properties in prime locations are rising (57%).
• 75% of respondents see digitalisation as a key driver in day‑to‑day business operations, yet AI is currently being actively used by only 16%.
• With 100% agreement (2025: 97%), demographic trends further consolidate their leading position among the megatrends of the Swiss real estate market in 2026.

Zurich, 10 March 2026 – The latest edition of the Swiss Real Estate Investment Market Trend Barometer 2026 clearly shows that 98% of the real estate investors surveyed continue to regard Switzerland as an attractive or very attractive location for real estate investments over the coming months (2025: 93%). The stable economy, a high level of legal certainty and a robust location quality despite geopolitical changes reinforce Switzerland’s role as a safe investment haven by international standards. Whereas in last year’s survey 35% of investors rated the market as very attractive, this year’s figure is 46%. 57% of respondents forecast an increase in investment volume for 2026, supported by the persistent investment crisis due to the low interest rate environment, high capital inflows and a lack of investment alternatives.

The results of the study are based on a survey conducted in November and December 2025 among 96 professionals and investors who have been active in the Swiss real estate market in recent years. Participants include banks, insurance companies, pension funds, real estate funds, investment foundations, real estate companies, developers, real estate service providers, family offices and wealthy private investors. In addition, four roundtables were held in Zurich and Geneva in advance, with a total of 27 real estate experts.

Switzerland as a Safe Haven for Real Estate

Despite economic and geopolitical uncertainty, 99% of respondents expect the Swiss real estate market to remain stable in 2026. At the same time, the shortage of supply in urban centers remains pronounced, as confirmed by 94% of respondents, while peripheral regions are benefiting in some cases. The low level of interest rates combined with a cautious but stable economic environment ensures good conditions for raising capital. Residential real estate clearly remains the first choice of investors for 2026: 99% of them continue to focus on stable cash flows. Transaction activity is also gaining momentum, with 95% giving a positive assessment of the market development.

At the same time, regulatory requirements are increasingly shaping investment and financing decisions: despite the low interest rate environment, 93% confirm that financing for new residential projects remains challenging, particularly for developers with limited equity or projects located in less sought‑after areas. 94% expect financial institutions to focus more on low-risk segments and high-quality borrowers. In addition to these stricter requirements, regulatory requirements are also having an impact on planning and implementation processes: complex building permit procedures and an increasing number of planning objections are slowing down new construction activity. ESG requirements also influence investments along the entire value chain, from extended reporting and disclosure obligations to sustainability ratings and labels to financing and investor requirements. Among other factors, 88% of investors expect new energy and climate regulations to trigger substantial renovation and restructuring requirements.

Against the backdrop of the ongoing supply shortage, survey participants were also asked what measures the legislator could take to boost new construction activity again. Nine out of ten respondents (90%) are convinced that simplified and digitalized building permit procedures and accelerated objection procedures would significantly boost new construction activity. 85% also see the easing of rigid building and zoning regulations as a decisive impetus for new construction activity.

“Geopolitical uncertainties – such as US tariffs, international trade conflicts, the war in Ukraine or global financial market risks – are increasingly exerting external pressure on the Swiss real estate market, particularly in centers with a strong international focus,” said Daniel Zaugg, Sector Leader Real Estate, Construction & Building Material at EY Switzerland. “These effects reinforce existing trends towards regional polarization by widening the gap between highly internationalized markets such as Geneva and Zurich and more domestically oriented regions. Nevertheless, Switzerland remains a politically and economically stable location overall – and even positions itself as a “safe haven” for capital in times of uncertainty,” said Zaugg.

Main focus on residential and office space on the upswing, but only in prime locations

Residential property remains the most popular asset class. With around 81% of respondents, an increasing number of investors also report a strong investment focus on residential real estate (2025: 74%). At the top nine locations (Basel, Bern, Geneva, Lausanne, Lugano, Lucerne, St. Gallen, Zurich and Zug), residential real estate represents the primary investment focus for most surveyed investors.

Outside the top nine locations, the investment focus is even stronger at 81% on residential properties, while demand for office and retail properties is low at 9% and 10%, respectively. 89% of respondents agree that conurbations are the regions with growth potential as a result of the density in city centers – and also because of their positive attitude towards replacement new buildings or the granting of building permits – (particularly in German-speaking Switzerland).

As in the previous year, there is an increased investment trend in logistics and office properties. Office properties overtake logistics year on year, with 58% seeing this type of use as an investment focus (2025: 48%), while logistics remains virtually unchanged at 51% (2025: 52%). This makes office properties the second most popular asset class among investors in 2026. Data centers (44%) and life science/health care real estate (41%) are gaining moderately, particularly among institutional investors with a long-term focus, supported by demand in the AI and healthcare sectors. “Office properties with high-quality locations and state-of-the-art equipment are likely to deliver a solid performance, as personal interaction continues to be valued in a hybrid working environment,” said Erik Ganz, Director Real Estate Assurance Financial Services and Advisory at EY Switzerland.

The investment focus by location (top 9) illustrates local differentiation: residential real estate remains the primary focus almost everywhere – except for Zug, where office properties (48%) are slightly ahead of residential properties (45%). Office gains in particular in Bern and Lucerne (+10%), while Geneva and Lugano are in decline. The retail trade is losing its importance by a large margin; Zurich is the exception, with Basel recording the sharpest decline at around -11%.

“The Swiss real estate market remains structurally attractive but is increasingly influenced by demographic change and regional polarization. Migration and changing household structures are securing demand, while investments are focusing more on economically robust centers as well as niche segments such as housing in old age. Peripheral regions are gaining in importance where infrastructure and connections are strong,” said Ganz.

AI follows the ESG pattern: significant added value is expected, specific implementation is uncertain and considerable regulation is still required.

AI is considered strategically relevant in the real estate industry but is mostly still in the testing and analysis phase. While 40% of respondents expect AI to significantly impact their business model, only 16% are currently actively using it in their day-to-day business operations.

Initial momentum is evident in the back office: 40% use AI to automate written correspondence, while a further 29% plan to use it. 30% are already using AI in the areas of planning, development and construction, while 44% are preparing implementations. The survey shows significant regional differences: in German-speaking Switzerland, 33% actively use AI, while nobody in French-speaking Switzerland is currently using it, but 62% are planning to introduce it. The industry is more cautious when it comes to valuation and decision support: only 6% are using AI operationally in this area, while 58% foresee no or only delayed use in the medium term.

“AI is strategically recognized as a key topic for the future in the real estate industry and is associated with high potential for added value. However, the actual implementation remains challenging – both operationally and from a regulatory perspective. Currently, AI is mainly used in standardized processes with clear potential for efficiency, such as in digital property management, reporting and pilot projects for energy optimization. In data-driven valuation and transaction processes, on the other hand, stakeholders are cautious, as data protection and a lack of data bases create constraints. Despite increasing automation, professional responsibility remains central,” said Ganz.

Impact instead of seal – investors opt for heating replacement; labels are less relevant

Energy-efficient refurbishments are becoming a key investment lever for existing buildings. 94% of respondents see pressure to reduce CO₂ and taking energy-related measures as a key driver. Regulatory requirements are further reinforcing this trend. ESG-focused players are gaining a competitive edge, with environmental and social criteria becoming increasingly important.

At the same time, ESG requirements are having a noticeable impact on financing conditions and return expectations: 84% expect this to have an impact. Meanwhile, 93% question the added value of formal sustainability labels and prioritize investments in building materials and measurable CO₂ reductions.

Megatrends: demographic change maintains peak; interest rates remain central and digitalization catches up

Demographic change is seen by all respondents (100%) as a key factor influencing the Swiss real estate market in the next five to ten years and is maintaining its leading position among megatrends (2025: 97%). Interest rate developments rank second with 89% approval, confirming their continuing relevance (2025: 87%).

Sustainability, digitalization and political uncertainty are shaping the next transformation phase: climate change and ESG remain key market drivers for 82% of respondents (2025: 83%). 75% of respondents believe that digitalization is having a significant impact – an increase of 7% compared with the previous year. At the same time, 74% of participants expect political uncertainty to also influence the market.

As a result, the combination of digitalization and the volatile political environment is moving increasingly to the forefront for players, reinforced by increasing interventions in housing protection, financing and permits. 

About the global EY organization

The global EY organization is a leader in assurance, tax, transaction and advisory services. We leverage our experience, knowledge and services to help build trust and confidence in the capital markets and in economies all over the world. We are ideally equipped for this task — with well trained employees, strong teams, excellent services and outstanding client relations. Our global purpose is to drive progress and make a difference by building a better working world — for our people, for our clients and for our communities.

The global EY organization refers to all member firms of Ernst & Young Global Limited (EYG). Each EYG member firm is a separate legal entity and has no liability for another such entity’s acts or omissions. Ernst & Young Global Limited, a UK company limited by guarantee, does not provide services to clients. Information about how EY collects and uses personal data and a description of the rights individuals have under data protection legislation are available via ey.com/privacy. For more information about our organization, please visit ey.com.

EY’s organization is represented in Switzerland by Ernst & Young Ltd, Basel, with 10 offices across Switzerland, and in Liechtenstein by Ernst & Young AG, Vaduz. In this publication, “EY” and “we” refer to Ernst & Young Ltd, Basel, a member firm of Ernst & Young Global Limited.