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The EY ITEM Club is a leading UK economic forecasting group.

We produce quarterly economic UK forecasts, special reports and forecasts for Scotland and the financial services sector. We also deliver daily analysis on UK economic data.

EY has been sole sponsor of the ITEM Club for 25 years. It is the only non-governmental forecasting group to use HM Treasury's model of the UK economy. Our reports provide a detailed economic analysis and forecast of economic activity for the period ahead. They are independent of any political, economic or business bias.

EY ITEM Club is part of Economics for Business, which provides knowledge, analysis and insight to help businesses understand the economic environments they operate in.

Featured press releases

Recession likely to be deeper – but not longer – than previously expected, says the EY ITEM Club Winter Forecast

The EY ITEM Club has downgraded UK GDP growth projections for the next three years, with warnings that a recession is likely to prove deeper than previously expected. A combination of high inflation, falling real incomes, rising interest rates, and tighter fiscal policy are the primary drags on growth.

23 Jan 2023 London GB

UK economy expected to be in recession until summer 2023, says latest EY ITEM Club forecast

High energy prices, elevated inflation, rising interest rates and global economic weakness mean the UK economy is expected to be in recession until the middle of 2023, according to the new EY ITEM Club Autumn Forecast.

17 Oct 2022 London GB

Further downgrades to growth forecast but UK economy should narrowly avoid recession, says latest EY ITEM Club report

In its latest forecast, the EY ITEM Club has downgraded UK economic growth projections, but says that the UK should avoid a recession.

20 Jul 2022 London GB

UK house prices set for continued growth despite economic slowdown, says EY ITEM Club

The EY ITEM Club expects house prices to rise 8% over 2022, followed by growth of 1.8% and 1.2% in 2023 and 2024 as the housing market avoids repeat of previous contractions

20 Jun 2022

Spring Statement – don’t hold your breath for tax announcements but there may be some nuggets to address the cost of living

When turning to the crystal ball of predictions, we must not lose sight of the fact that the Spring Statement is not a fiscal event like the Budget, so we are unlikely to see a raft of tax announcements and changes.

22 Mar 2022 London GB

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