Greater economic balance across Scotland
While the geographic imbalances between the North and South of England are set to widen over the next three years, as outlined earlier this week in EY’s Regional Economic Forecast, Scotland’s economic growth is more geographically balanced.
GVA growth in four out of Scotland’s seven city regions is predicted to grow at a faster pace annually in the period 2020-2023 compared with 2016-2019 (Aberdeen, Dundee, Glasgow and Perth & Kinross). While growth in Edinburgh and Stirling will ease off in the next three years, Edinburgh will be the strongest performing Scottish city and Stirling will rank in third place.
Edinburgh, Glasgow and Stirling, with an annual growth of 1.9% GVA, 1.7% GVA and 1.6% GVA respectively between 2020 and 2024, are all predicted to perform above the Scottish average pace of growth. Scotland’s two biggest cities will also grow faster than the UK annual average (1.6%) for the same time period.
Six cities are expected to experience an increase in employment annually with only Aberdeen narrowly missing growth at -0.1% per year from 2020-2024. A common area of GVA growth to all seven cities is predicted to be professional, scientific and technical activities, a sub-sector of private services.