Economics

Economic uncertainty can also present opportunities for innovation and growth. Navigate the road ahead with informed macro-economic insights to reframe your future.

EY ITEM Club Winter Forecast

Our forecast looks at what’s driving the UK’s economic outlook, with a spotlight on the labour market and consumer spending.

Read the forecast (PDF, 3MB)
Watch the webcast on-demand
Landscape photograph of spring blossom in front of colourful London houses.

Featured press releases

Lanscape photograph of business people standing in an atrium in a modern office

UK economy set for modest growth in 2026 amid global uncertainty

The EY ITEM Club Winter 2026 Forecast for the UK economy, including interest rates, GDP, inflation, business investment and unemployment.

02 Feb 2026 | London, United Kingdom | Rob Joyce

Landscape photograph of the Thames path along the Thames river

UK growth forecast upgraded to 1.5% for 2025, but GDP to slow next year

The EY ITEM Club Autumn 2025 Forecast for the UK economy, including interest rates, GDP, inflation, business investment and unemployment.

03 Nov 2025 | London, United Kingdom | Rob Joyce

UK GDP forecast upgraded but outlook subdued

28 Jul 2025 | London, United Kingdom

60% of FTSE 100 returns linked to geopolitical and macro shifts

23 Jul 2025 | London, United Kingdom

Scotland secures decade stretch as top UK FDI location outside London

17 Jun 2025 | Edinburgh, United Kingdom

How EY can help

The team

Peter Arnold

EY UK Chief Economist
Economics leader with over 20 years of experience. Advises public and private sector clients on macroeconomics, policies, regulation and competition. Improves client strategies via analytics.
London, United Kingdom

Silvia Rindone

EY UK&I Strategy and Transactions Managing Partner
Strategic mind with a pragmatic spin. Intellectually curious. Mother of two. Passion for art, food and travel.
London, United Kingdom

Kirsten Tompkins

UK&I Market Analyst and Commentator, Turnaround and Restructuring Strategy, Ernst & Young LLP
Market analyst and blogger for Turnaround and Restructuring. Passionate about the role of sport to break down barriers and improve lives. Helps to run a local cricket club.
Birmingham, United Kingdom

Scott McCubbin

EY UK&I IPO Leader
Leads EY’s UK&I IPO team. Experienced in delivering the largest IPOs in the UK. Passionate about supporting clients through the experience.
London, United Kingdom

Ally Scott

EY Scotland Managing Partner and EY Entrepreneur Of The Year™ UK Partner Co-Lead, Ernst & Young LLP
Passionate about entrepreneurship. Recognised dealmaker with more than 30 years’ experience. Keen golfer.
Edinburgh, United Kingdom

Sue Dawe

EY, Scotland, Head of Financial Services
Leads EY’s Financial Services practice for Scotland and is a member of the EY UK LLP Board. Also a member of the Scottish Financial Enterprise Board.
Edinburgh, United Kingdom

Mats Persson

Partner, Strategy and Transactions, Ernst & Young LLP
Former Special Advisor to the Prime Minister and Chief of Staff to the Chancellor of the Exchequer.
London, United Kingdom

Rute Aparicio

Partner, Strategy and Transactions, Ernst & Young LLP
Modelling, data and analytics practitioner. Good listener and an empathetic coach. Mother. Enjoys the outdoors. Art enthusiast.
London, United Kingdom
Contact us
Like what you’ve seen? Get in touch to learn more.

EY refers to the global organization, and may refer to one or more, of the member firms of Ernst & Young Global Limited, each of which is a separate legal entity. Ernst & Young Global Limited, a UK company limited by guarantee, does not provide services to clients.