The better the question. The better the answer. The better the world works. У вас есть вопрос? У нас есть ответ. Решая сложные задачи бизнеса, мы улучшаем мир. У вас є запитання? У нас є відповідь. Вирішуючи складні завдання бізнесу, ми змінюємо світ на краще. Meilleure la question, meilleure la réponse. Pour un monde meilleur. 問題越好。答案越好。商業世界越美好。 问题越好。答案越好。商业世界越美好。

Brexit: Our view

The publication of the draft Brexit Withdrawal Agreement brought with it a degree of clarity and a further wave of instability. We are now clearer as to which road the UK can, or may, take in relation to Brexit. There are now three possibilities for the UK; accept the deal, extend the deadline beyond March or exit without a deal.

Read all our thought leadership, insights and opinion on Brexit’s implications for Irish business.

EY's Data Analytics experts have created an indexed version of the Draft Agreement which makes this lengthy document easy to navigate and allows you to read the most relevant sections of the agreement to you.

Download

Find out more about Brexit withdrawal agreement

 

Insights

Theresa May won a confidence vote amongst her own MPs by 200 to 117. She required the backing of at least 158 MPs to win, and is now immune from any further party leadership challenges for a year




EY-DKM Brexit Watch

Brexit Watch: Monthly briefing on Brexit developments

One thing appears certain - Boris Johnson has committed to removing the UK from the EU at the end of October, with or without a deal.

View the latest report

EY-DKM Brexit Watch contains Brexit developments from DKM Economic Consultants. It is a valuable reference tool for business leaders and decision-makers in Ireland, providing an accessible, up-to-date round-up and commentary of developments.

Read Brexit Watch

Aug 09th 2019 | Issue 43

Key highlights:

  • Political updates
  • Brexit and the NI agri-food sector
  • EY business updates and Brexit outcome likelihoods

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July 11th 2019 | Issue 42

Key highlights:

  • Political updates
  • Brexit and the ROI agri-food sector
  • EY business updates and Brexit outcome likelihoods

Learn more

June 10th 2019 | Issue 41

Key highlights:

  • Political updates
  • EY’s European attractiveness survey
  • EY business updates and Brexit outcome likelihoods

Learn more

May 02nd 2019 | Issue 40

Key highlights:

  • Political and business updates
  • Brexit and the migration of workers
  • EY business updates and Brexit outcome likelihoods

Learn more

April 02nd 2019 | Issue 39

Key highlights:

  • Political and business updates
  • Brexit and Irish Regional Development
  • EY business updates and Brexit outcome likelihoods

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March 01st 2019 | Issue 38

Key highlights:

  • Political and business updates
  • Brexit and Rules of Origin
  • EY business updates and Brexit outcome likelihoods

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January 31st 2019 | Issue 37

Key highlights:

  • Political and business updates
  • Pharma industry Brexit case study
  • EY business updates and Brexit

Learn more

December 19th 2018 | Issue 36

Key highlights:

  • May holds on to power
  • Irish hoteliers’ concern over Brexit
  • The competition landscape post-Brexit

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November 29th 2018 | Issue 35

Key highlights:

  • Draft Withdrawal Agreement published
  • Currency fluctuations and Brexit
  • Businesses cautiously welcome draft Withdrawal Agreement

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October 24th 2018 | Issue 34

Key highlights:

  • No Brexit summit in November
  • Island of Ireland agricultural trade
  • Continued uncertainty damages business confidence

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September 27th 2018 | Issue 33

Key highlights:

  • Salzburg summit fallout
  • Brexit and goods trade between ROI and the UK
  • Business developments and EY’s current Brexit outlook

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August 28th 2018 | Issue 32

Key highlights:

  • Publication of the first batch of the UK’s ‘no-deal’ technical notices
  • The importance of cross channel travel to the Republic of Ireland’s economy
  • Increased trade uncertainty

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July 27th 2018 | Issue 31

Key highlights:

  • Publication of the UK White Paper and its implications
  • The impact of Brexit on aerospace regulation and future airspace use
  • Business reaction to the White Paper and the Business of a Connected Ireland Report

Learn more

June 29th 2018 | Issue 30

Key highlights:

  • Tánaiste warns of difficult summer talks
  • Brexit bill becomes law
  • Brexit and firm’s supply chains

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June 15th 2018 | Issue 29

Key highlights:

  • Taoiseach no longer expecting progress on backstop by June
  • Theresa May avoids defeat in the Commons
  • Brexit and third level education in Ireland

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June 1st 2018 | Issue 28

Key highlights:

  • Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade boosts commitment to Good Friday Agreement
  • Tensions high for Prime Minister at both home and abroad
  • Tourism in NI: the silver lining?

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May 21st 2018 | Issue 27

Key highlights:

  • EU further supports the Irish Government's stance
  • ‘You can trust me to deliver’ - Theresa May’s latest message to the UK
  • The International Monetary Fund  releases latest forecasts

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May 4th 2018 | Issue 26

Key highlights:

  • Committee recommends Multiannual Financial Framework include funding for Brexit impacts
  • House of Lords again votes against the Government on Withdrawal Bill
  • Costs and Benefits: Learning from experience

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April 20th 2018 | Issue 25

Key highlights:

  • SPU shows strong growth forecasts but don’t expect an expansionary budget in light of Brexit
  • House of Lords offers up another challenge to Prime Minister May
  • What does sterling appreciating and depreciating mean for the Irish economy?

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April 6th 2018 | Issue 24

Key highlights:

  • Opposition parties accuse Government of lacking action
  • May puts forward plan for ‘customs partnership’ with EU
  • Global context as negotiations on the future trade relationship begin

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March 23rd 2018 | Issue 23

Key highlights:

  • Concrete border discussions to start ‘as early as next week’ in effort to keep issue at the fore of discussion
  • Transition Agreement Secured – what was agreed and who reacted
  • Current Account Balance shows surplus with the UK for 2017

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March 9th 2018 | Issue 22

Key highlights:

  • Taoiseach rebuts May’s suggestion that negotiations are a three way discussion
  • Draft Withdrawal Agreement met with ’anger’ in the UK
  • Sector focus: Retail

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February 23rd 2018 | Issue 21

Key highlights:

  • Ambassador responds to Taoiseach’s comments on a ‘Norway Plus’ deal
  • Theresa May receives ‘ransom note’ from hard-line Brexiters
  • Looking back on 20 Issues of Brexit Watch analysis

Learn more

February 9th 2018 | Issue 20

Key highlights:

  • Taoiseach looks for certainty from UK Government
  • Leaked analysis further spits the Conservative Party
  • Markets dip over the week
  • Bank of England discusses inflation and interest rate hikes

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January 26th 2018 | Issue 19

Key highlights:

  • Taoiseach Varadkar makes his first appearance at the European Parliament
  • David Davis appears in front of the Brexit Committee
  • UK-France Summit sees Macron hold firm on financial services trade deal conditions
  • EU Debt-to-GDP figures released for Q3 2017

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January 11th 2018 | Issue 18

Key highlights:

  • Reshuffle does little to reignite the Tories
  • EU budget planning looks to fill Brexit shaped hole
  • End of year indicators show strong Irish growth

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December 14th 2017 | Issue 17

Key highlights:

  • Time to move on to Phase Two
  • Impact Papers and the role of forecasting
  • Job relocations to Dublin could be over-estimated

Learn more

November 30th 2017 | Issue 16

Key highlights:

  • Election averted and breakthrough with the divorce bill
  • A primer on productivity
  • Ireland’s SMEs leading the eurozone pack for SME employment growth

Learn more

November 16th 2017 | Issue 15

Key highlights:

  • Chaos in the House of Commons, with Theresa May’s influence threatened
  • How will decisions around the border affect Irish trade
  • Irish Stock Exchange weighing up options for a buy-out

Learn more

November 3rd 2017 | Issue 14

Key highlights:

  • Negotiations in Stormont take focus away from the EU
  • BoE raises interest rates for the first time in a decade
  • Taoiseach looks to the US for new jobs

Learn more

October 20th 2017 | Issue 13

Key highlights:

  • Mixed messages from politicians on a ‘no deal’ Brexit outcome
  • Response to Brexit-proofing in Budget 2018, and the latest inflation trends
  • Hope could be found for Ireland in the derivatives contract market

Learn more

October 5th 2017 | Issue 12

Key highlights:

  • Negotiations at a standstill
  • Pre-Budget submissions call for ‘Brexit-proofing’
  • Bids for European bodies look uncertain

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September 21st 2017 | Issue 11

Key highlights:

  • UK message increasingly contradictory
  • Cross-border consumption developments
  • Dock Watch: XL and KBRA pick Dublin’s fair city

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September 7th 2017 | Issue 10

Key highlights:

  • Commission sides with Ireland on border issues
  • EFTA insight: is the UK heading back to a club it helped found?
  • Dock Watch: SME trading contraction could "derail" the economy

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August 24th 2017 | Issue 9

Key highlights:

  • Britain's position: an ever closer divorce?
  • A closer look at UK papers on Northern Ireland and the CJEU
  • Dock Watch: no commitments yet from Bank of America

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August 10th 2017 | Issue 8

Key highlights:

  • Is Britain edging closer to a financial settlement?
  • Education: an Irish export market of increasing value?
  • Poles apart: Irish consumer spending up as UK spending falls.

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July 27th 2017 | Issue 7

Key highlights:

  • UK Cabinet welcomes free movement (at least temporarily),
  • Energy focus: implications of Brexit for the Irish energy market
  • Why headlines of Dublin being "streets ahead" in relocation game could be misleading.

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July 13th 2017 | Issue 6

Key highlights:

  • DKM's take on political developments since Issue 5 (29th June),
  • Relocations: who's winning?
  • Pharma: sweet pills for the Irish industry?

Learn more

June 29th 2017 | Issue 5

Key highlights:

  • Brexit: One Year On – in quotes,
  • The UK Economy DKM on the anniversary of the referendum
  • Exchange rates and Irish tourist market: more than meets the eye?

Learn more

June 15th 2017 | Issue 4

Key highlights:

  • The UK election and its consequences,
  • UK businesses unprepared for stricter migration rules
  • An exposure analysis of Ireland’s agrifood sector to the UK economy

Learn more

June 1st 2017 | Issue 3

Key highlights:

  • DKM's take on UK polls, AEOs and ESMA governance,
  • A digest of expert accounts on tariffs, trade and customs in the context of Brexit
  • Our regular 'Dock Watch', looking at the relocation of City firms post-Article 50

Learn more

May 18th 2017 | Issue 2

Key highlights:

  • DKM's take on political developments since publication of Issue 1 (5th May)
  • An overview of Ireland’s trade in goods and services
  • Our regular 'Dock Watch', looking at the relocation of City firms post-Article 50

Learn more

May 5th 2017 | Issue 1

Key highlights:

  • DKM's take on political developments since the triggering of Article 50
  • A handy explanation of the EU Customs Union and Single Market
  • A close-up of the potential disruption of any border on the island of Ireland/li>
  • Our regular 'Dock Watch', looking at the relocation of City firms post-Article 50

Learn more

EY Reactions

EY Northern Ireland reacts to UK Government announcement on draft Brexit agreement

For further comment please contact Pia Phelan on 087 932 7702.

Michael Hall, Managing Partner, EY Northern Ireland, comments on the UK’s Government announcement on the draft Brexit agreement:

“Business will clearly welcome last night’s announcement in that there is now better clarity on the terms of a deal however many will also be reluctant to put contingency plans on hold until there is a stronger signal on whether this will hold politically in the UK and Europe.”

“The backstop guarantee is a positive development for NI firms operating on an all-island basis, not least the restatement that both sides intend to work towards a free trade agreement longer term, which should not be overlooked.”
“The scale of political uncertainty and the volatility which this creates can be seen in the significant currency fluctuations we have witnessed in the past 24 hours. Firms should not take this lightly and as such, factor these continued unknowns into their scenario planning.”

“On the positive side, Northern Ireland businesses have continued to expand and employ more people in the period since the Brexit referendum, which we remain hopeful they will continue to do as we look towards a further period of uncertainty. By focusing on business fundamentals and contingency planning, firms will arm themselves so that they are ready to act when the road ahead becomes clearer.”

EY reaction to UK Government announcement on draft Brexit agreement

For further comment please contact Pia Phelan on 087 932 7702.

Simon MacAllister, Partner and Brexit Lead for EY Ireland, comments on the UK’s Government announcement on the draft Brexit agreement:

“Business will clearly welcome last night’s announcement, however many will also be reluctant to put contingency plans on hold until there is a stronger signal on whether this will hold politically in the UK and Europe.”

“The backstop guarantee is a positive development and there is much for firms operating on an all-island basis to be comforted by from this deal, not least the restatement that both sides intend to work towards a free trade agreement longer term, which should not be overlooked.”

“The scale of political uncertainty and the volatility which this creates can be seen in the significant currency fluctuations we have witnessed in the past 24 hours. Firms should not take this lightly and as such, factor these continued unknowns into their scenario planning.”

“On the positive side, businesses across the island have continued to expand and employ more people in the period since the Brexit referendum, which we remain hopeful they will continue to do as we look towards a further period of uncertainty. By focusing on business fundamentals and contingency planning, firms will arm themselves so that they are ready to act when the road ahead becomes clearer.”

Contact us

EY - Simon MacAllister

Simon MacAllister
Partner
+353 1 211 2611

EY - Michael Hall

Michael Hall
Managing Partner | EY Northern Ireland
Head of Markets Ireland

+44 28 9044 3523