If you look back over the past twelve months, which expectations regarding the market, interest rates and capital have materialized, and which have not? What conclusions do you draw from this?
In retrospect, it is possible to state that many of our fundamental expectations have materialized, though not to the extent we originally anticipated. We had assumed that the market environment would deteriorate, particularly in light of interest rate developments and the ubiquitous uncertainty in capital markets. Accordingly, we expected conditions that would support our business.
Over the past year, institutional investment vehicles recorded capital inflows of more than CHF 9 billion. For comparison, during the peak period around 2021, inflows stood at approximately CHF 6 billion, which was already considered exceptionally high at the time. The fact that this level has been significantly exceeded clearly demonstrates the continued confidence investors place in the Swiss real estate market.
However, this development is double-edged. On the one hand, the availability of substantial capital is positive for the industry and for us as a provider. On the other hand, every additional franc also increases the pressure on the acquisition side. In fact, this capital must be invested in a market where supply is not expanding at the same pace.
Based on this, we have been highly disciplined in avoiding any dilution of our products. Over the past year, we conducted in-depth assessments of approximately CHF 3 billion in transaction volume and ultimately invested just over CHF 1 billion – across both existing properties and projects. This illustrates how selectively we are now required to proceed. It is clear to us that the expectations regarding quality standards have remained constant or even increased, despite significantly higher market pressure compared to the past.
Listed real estate vehicles have corrected more sharply in recent weeks and months than other asset classes. How do you explain this increased volatility?
A differentiated view is essential. NAV-based products – particularly investment foundations – exhibit a pronounced safe-haven character during volatile market phases. Particularly traditional pension funds appreciate this stability and deliberately invest in vehicles that are not evaluated daily during periods of uncertainty. Accordingly, we continue to see growth in this segment.
The situation differs for listed investments. Liquidity plays a major role there. Daily tradability means that market sentiment, portfolio reallocations and external events are reflected much more directly in pricing. In addition, it is important to remember that valuations at the end of last year were, in some cases, very ambitious. Historically, the yield spread between ten-year government bonds and real estate fund yields has been on average around 2.5%. Currently, this spread is narrower, indicating that certain premiums had simply been exhausted.
For real estate equities, an additional factor is their classification by investors. Some allocate them within equities, others within real estate. In an environment where traditional industrial sectors and other equities are more affected by geopolitical uncertainties, this can lead to further reallocation. Therefore, the higher volatility observed in listed real estate investments reflects liquidity and market mechanics rather than fundamental weakness.