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Published: 12 May 2026
The EY UK Economic Outlook, Spring 2026 (PDF)
PDF report: Analysis of macroeconomic issues and sectoral themes shaping the UK economy, with clear scenarios and business implications.
In brief:
- The Middle East conflict is disrupting oil and gas supply, pushing inflation higher and keeping interest rates elevated for longer.
- As a result, UK GDP growth is forecast at 0.8% this year and 1.2% in 2027, down from 1.3% and 1.4%.
- Higher energy prices are increasing essential spend, reducing consumer purchasing power.
- Lower income groups are the hardest hit, with others drawing on savings; businesses must balance pricing, margins and volume.
- Energy-intensive UK industries remain most exposed.
- The UK Government is considering targeted support and broader energy market reforms.
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