Geese in flight pointing north

Disruptive headwinds: entrepreneurial tailwinds

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What if disruption isn’t the challenge, but the chance?


In brief

  • Treat disruption as a tailwind by planning for multiple futures in a NAVI world and moving when clear, predefined triggers fire.
  • Build resilience that repeats by prioritizing partnerships and choosing financing that enables ~30‑day recovery from shocks.
  • Standardize trade basics by getting origin, classification and valuation right first, then codifying a reusable market‑entry playbook.

Canadian founders face a swirling landscape of complexity. Even so, there are opportunities layered in the kind of disruption the world’s experiencing now. In many ways, tapping that potential requires a fresh perspective.

 

“Founders have traditionally focused on being better, faster and cheaper [than the competition],” explains Biren Agnihotri, EY Canada Chief Technology Officer.
 

“I think now is the time to move to a focus on being smarter, resilient and strategic.”
 

Recent Business Development Bank of Canada research shows while typical entrepreneurial stressors like work-life balance, inflation and high interest rates are all down year over year, others are growing. World events or crises were up 10 points in 2025, affecting stress and anxiety levels for some 37% of entrepreneurs. Also on the rise: economic or political uncertainty, up five points to affect 47% of those surveyed, and managing cash flow or profitability, up four points, unnerving 50% of entrepreneurs.

The right ecosystem can help founders adapt as conditions change. You cannot build everything by yourself.

Agnihotri says this complexity brings renewed need for entrepreneurs to embrace much more agile ways of thinking, planning and working. “The winners will be those with the ability to pivot, launch a new product, enter into a new market or adopt a new technology.”

Dramatic changes to trade and tariff regimes, geopolitical upheaval and economic uncertainty defined 2025. But this came on the heels of a five-year cycle. From 2020 to now, businesses in all sectors have navigated the mainstreaming of generative artificial intelligence (gen AI), extreme weather events, supply chain shocks, the Great Resignation and a global pandemic. That rollercoaster ride has moved global economies — and the entrepreneurs who drive them — into an operating environment that’s at once non-linear, accelerated, volatile and interconnected (NAVI).

A core megatrend in 2025, this NAVI world requires leaders to adapt future-back planning, scanning the environment more widely and considering the interconnections between disparate forces like tech, geopolitics and sustainability. To Agnihotri’s point, founders must now plan for not just one, but multiple visions of the future. Doing so bakes adaptability right into the venture, enabling entrepreneurs to correct course more quickly and jump on opportunities.

Paul Tucker agrees. As EY Canada Managing Partner, Consulting, he leads a national practice group of more than 3,000 consultants dedicated to helping clients grow, optimize operations and manage change. Supporting organizations at every stage of the growth journey, he underlines the importance of taking a bigger and broader approach about where opportunities lie and preparing for a handful of potential pathways to profitability.

“From my perspective, looking at the current geopolitical environment and the rapid pace of technological change, especially with AI, we need to adopt new approaches, get companies and solutions out more quickly and look beyond our traditional, easy path — such as Silicon Valley,” says Tucker. “There may be other areas we need to explore now.”

37%
anxiety levels for entrepreneurs due to world events or crises
47%
feel the effects of economic or political uncertainty
50%
of entrepreneurs are feeling unnerved about cashflow or profitability

From my perspective, looking at the current geopolitical environment and the rapid pace of technological change, especially with AI, we need to adopt new approaches, get companies and solutions out more quickly and look beyond our traditional, easy path — such as Silicon Valley. There may be other areas we need to explore now.
The winners will be those with the ability to pivot, launch a new product, enter into a new market or adopt a new technology.

Greater risks can ramp up the potential for greater rewards

Granted, forging ahead in the face of so much uncertainty can be daunting for even the most optimistic founder. This year’s Global Entrepreneurship Monitor shows while more people agree it’s becoming easier to start a business, the fear of failure increasingly holds them back.

On the flip side, the Monitor highlights a number of environmental factors essential to supporting entrepreneurship: improved regulatory frameworks,favourable tax policies, engaged public/private ecosystems and incentivized investments. Many of these are already gaining traction in Canada.

Ahead of Canada’s federal 2025 budget, the Business Council of Canada joined a chorus of industry and other voices, calling for the government to commit to a pro-growth structural reform agenda. By the end of the year, the federal government launched a Major Projects Office to prioritize nation-building projects in Canada’s interest. Among those priorities are meaningful focus on AI, quantum computing and advanced technologies, along with streamlined processes and less red tape to get projects off the ground. The budget also proposed investments like $1b in funding to launch a new Venture and Growth Capital Catalyst Initiative and enhancements to the Scientific Research & Experimental Development (SRED) program, among other initiatives.

Those building blocks lend themselves to fostering the kind of environment entrepreneurs require to move forward despite disruption. For Sonya Shorey’s part, keeping informed of updates like these is like topping up fuel in the founder’s tank. Shorey is President and CEO of Invest Ottawa, the lead economy development agency for knowledge-based industries in Canda’s capital.

With more than 25 years of leadership experience in tech, entrepreneurship and investment, Shorey’s seen her fair share of economic cycles and disruptive forces. She says a founder’s understanding of how each change impacts the business and presents opportunity is hugely important to long-term success.

“It’s very unpredictable in the current environment, especially to the south of us,” says Shorey. “Being agile, always on guard, and staying on top of the latest information and how it impacts the business has become almost a standard part of their operating model.”

To that end, tech founders who set fear aside and capitalize on these possibilities may just find tumult can be a stepping stone to sustainable growth.

Theory to action: next steps for Canada’s tech founders

A bold mindset is only one piece of the puzzle. To adapt effectively and make progress in spite of so much volatility, founders will need to do things differently going forward.

For example, the entrepreneurial ecosystem becomes increasingly important in challenging times. As entrepreneurs home in on multiple futures and paths, new ways to collaborate — even with previously unlikely partners — may be a linchpin to momentum.

“You need to consider who you will work with, both geopolitically and in terms of technology focus. What’s the long-term view? Not everyone has the answer but maybe look for partnerships with organizations or companies that are more mature,” says Sylvain Golsse, EY Canada National Global Trade Leader.

Over the last year in particular, Golsse has worked with organizations of all sizes and stages to mitigate the downsides of trade disruption and unearth new growth channels. He says reframing collaboration can be a good way to withstand unpredictable business conditions.

“I think the world is changing so fast that [resilience] is about the ability to partner with an ecosystem,” he says. “The right ecosystem can help founders adapt as conditions change. You cannot build everything by yourself.”

Golsse suggests founders focus less on looking for fast cash and more on ways to bring two to three different entities together, collectively betting on where the market is heading. That doesn’t eliminate the need to secure funding; rather, this is about prioritizing partnerships on an equal footing with cash.

“It might be interesting to explore nontraditional funding and look for companies with strong leadership and good fundamentals, supporting each other through growth.”

While every founder will view financing through their own unique lens — with some bootstrapping to maintain full control and others looking to private equity, venture capital or debt instruments to scale quickly — choosing the right option for the right reasons counts for a lot. There’s no one-size-fits-all approach to thriving in a NAVI world. That thinking extends to the way entrepreneurs access capital.

Agnihotri believes founders should consider which funding options position the business to recover from a financial challenge within 30 days — not months or years. “You need to start double-clicking on your business and see how much you are exposed, and where you are exposed.”

They may also want to reconsider traditional metrics that no longer serve the business well. For example, achieving a certain level of monthly recurring revenue (MRR) may be difficult with tariffs changing every other month and economic headwinds continuing to blow. If that’s the case, it’s time to rethink measurement overall.

Doing so can foster the flexibility entrepreneurial businesses need to seize the upsides of disruption. Canadian research shows that during upheavals like the pandemic; new entrepreneurs were more motivated to start up a business out of necessity than opportunity.

From some of the world’s largest automotive manufacturers that were founded during a recession early in the 20th century, to leading tech platforms launched in the gloom of the early 2000s tech bubble: some of today’s biggest brands trace their roots back to adversity. In Canada, the EY Entrepreneur Of The Year® Awards program has received 5,000 nominations since 1994. Many of those businesses were founded in uncertain times.

Plusgrade is one of them. Tech founder Ken Harris faced plenty of skepticism when establishing Plusgrade in 2009, as the financial crisis cast a long shadow over markets. He pushed ahead regardless, using technology to democratize travel through a revolutionary, white-label upgrade solution that integrates directly into airline booking systems.

By 2023, Plusgrade was generating over $5b in annual revenues. A year later, Harris was named Canada’s Entrepreneur Of The Year 2024. He’s set a new standard for 200 travel brands in 60 countries.

That entrepreneurial grit gets EY’s Tucker excited about the future of tech in Canada, no matter what the broader environment has in store. He works with companies across the country to drive growth and spur innovative opportunities. And he’s betting on Canadian founders.

“What I love about Canadian ingenuity is our collective drive. We simply don’t give up,” Tucker says. “We have a chance to take the massive amount of change the market’s experienced in recent years and turn this into Canada’s moment. When Canadian entrepreneurs pair the right strategy and tech with inspirational people leadership, extraordinary results emerge.”

Summary

Canadian founders operate in a NAVI world: non‑linear, accelerated, volatile and interconnected. In this environment, disruption can become an advantage. Planning for multiple futures, formalizing partnerships and standardizing trade basics can derisk growth. With financing that enables rapid recovery — and targeted AI‑enabled productivity — teams can turn shocks into scale.

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