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This report is a summary of the key findings and recommendations arising from EY-Parthenon’s research into and analysis of the world’s rapidly growing and increasingly important battery economy. As well as explaining why Asia has emerged as the dominant player in this sector, the summary report also considers how Western governments can help their countries become leaders in domestic battery manufacturing through targeted and timely economic interventions. The recommendations we have drawn from our research are particularly relevant to the UK, which is highly vulnerable to being left behind in the race to meet accelerating demand for EV batteries.
In brief
Western governments have set ambitious targets to decarbonise their transport networks.
However, government decarbonisation targets and the economics of mass battery electric vehicle (BEV) uptake are not yet aligned.
The good news: BEVs will start to gain cost parity with ICE vehicles by as early as 2025.
The bad news: EV battery production and supply chains are likely to gravitate towards Asia.
The UK is particularly exposed to being left behind in the race to meet demand for batteries.
The West, including the UK, will not match Asia on economies of scale or operating costs, even in the long term.
But it could gain competitive advantage by focusing on innovation in four key areas within the supply chain: lithium mining, nickel-refining, active material manufacturing and cell production.
Our research identifies six specific areas where timely, targeted government intervention can be a cost-efficient way to help our battery producers compete on equal terms in the race to meet surging global demand.
Government’s critical role in shaping the future of the UK’s battery economy
After several years of optimistic forecasting about the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), eMobility has finally reached a turning point. In 2021, one in five new vehicle registrations in Europe was electric. And while EVs represent just 1.5% of Europe’s total 326 million vehicle park today, EY analysts predict the share will grow to 65 million vehicles by 2030 and double to 130 million vehicles by 2035.