Eigenvectors of net zero

Eigenvectors of net zero: Building a resilient energy future

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Clean energy transition in India is a multidimensional challenge—balancing growth, equity, security and sustainability till 2070.


In brief

  • Viksit Bharat 2047 (~1.5 billion population and US$30 trillion GDP) primary energy needs will be around three times more than the current levels
  • Non-fossil energy supply must increase ~40 times of current levels to contribute at least two-third of total primary energy needs of Viksit Bharat 2047

Entering its 25th year this decade, the energy sector faces geopolitical instability, rising AI-driven energy demand, and an accelerating clean energy transition in India. To remain resilient, utilities must modernize grids, integrate renewables and drive digital transformation. Key technologies such as AI, smart grids and digital energy solutions will be critical for enhancing operational efficiency and flexibility. Managing supply chain disruptions and strengthening cybersecurity are strategically imperative, while financial planning and strategic green energy investments in renewable energy growth and technology in 2025 will ensure long-term sustainability. CEOs are increasingly focusing on leveraging technology, strategic transactions, and AI to drive efficiency, navigate volatility, and secure long-term growth in a rapidly evolving global energy landscape.

India's energy transition stands at a pivotal juncture, shaped by geopolitical volatility, economic imperatives, and the urgent drive toward India's roadmap to net zero emissions by 2070. A recent EY report employs an "eigenvectors" framework, drawing on multidimensional optimization and machine learning to distill the complex dynamics of this transformation into foundational patterns and trends. By analyzing human-centric indicators, it uncovers the transient trade-offs shaping the net zero roadmap and the future of sustainable power.

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The report frames the ‘net zero energy transition’ as a multidimensional optimization problem. Countries in the Global South, including India, navigate a ‘transition space’ defined by human-centric development imperatives that drive economic growth. Using data-driven techniques will reduce complexity to uncover underlying trends. These are not merely technological shifts such as renewables, nuclear, and bioenergy, but rather more foundational, human-centric changes improving security, reliability, and affordability of energy as a commodity for economic development, aligning with achieving Viksit Bharat 2047 through sustainable power. Energy intensity, energy cost share relative to GDP, energy imports, GHG emission intensity and identify other indicators, all of which are foundational to understanding the long-term trends and transient trade-offs governing the speed and scale of net zero energy transition.

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Historical trends (2000-2021) show declining energy and GHG intensity, but future ambitions require radical shifts, as projections highlight non-linear pathways diverging from past trajectories. The share of energy costs relative to economic output (ECS) shows a remarkable long-term stability across large, industrialized economies. This stability suggests that over time, the long-run elasticity of energy intensity to energy price is approximately (-)1. This means that when energy prices increase, the economy adjusts by improving energy efficiency, preventing a long-term rise in energy expenditure as a percentage of GDP. When ECS exceeds 10% to 11% of GDP, economic growth rates tend to decline, showing the impact of energy cost stability on economic growth.

For India, policy-driven pathways for net zero in India must be adequately informed through tracking ECS— a vital feature to balance net zero emission goals with affordability and cost competitiveness. Security analysis highlights rising low-carbon energy technology imports at 0.211% of GDP in FY25. Environmental concerns persist, as India and China continue to face high PM2.5 exposure levels — a vital factor influencing our collective experience of achieving Viksit Bharat 2047 goals.

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Summary

The future of India’s energy sector will be defined by how effectively it balances growth, sustainability and resilience. Success will not come from technology alone, but from the ability to align innovation with affordability, security and inclusivity. Utilities and policymakers must anticipate volatility while investing in smarter grids, renewable capacity and digital transformation. Equally, there should be focus on human-centric outcomes that improve quality of life, safeguard the environment, and ensure competitiveness. If these priorities converge, India can accelerate toward a net zero economy that strengthens its global standing while supporting the long-term goals of Viksit Bharat 2047.

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