What is ETS2
As part of the 2023 ETS Directive revision, the European Union has introduced a new, separate Emissions Trading System, known as ETS2. It targets CO2 emissions from fuel combustion in buildings, road transport, and small industries not covered by the already existing EU ETS. The ETS2 aims to reduce emissions by 42% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels. It will become fully operational in 2027, however, monitoring of emissions starts in 2025.
What to know at the beginning
Regulated entities under ETS2 are required to hold a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions permit (together with approved Monitoring Plan) by 1 January 2025. Until 31 December 2030, entities which are subject to a national carbon tax for activities covered by ETS2 may be exempt from the obligation to surrender allowances. This exemption is contingent upon approval from the Commission and is intended to avoid double regulation. In addition, Member States have the possibility to unilaterally extend the covered activities to other sectors (subject to the Commission's approval).
Auctioning of allowances
Unlike the existing system, ETS2 will not offer free allocations - all emission allowances will be auctioned, promoting a market-driven approach to emissions reduction. The European Commission has already set the cap for 2027 at 1,036,288,784 allowances. This is based on average CO2 emissions from 2016 to 2018, reduced annually by 5.1% in the period from 2025 to 2027 (later by 5,38 %). The cap for 2028 will be determined later, based on average emissions data from 2024 to 2026 to ensure relevance and effectiveness. Member States are required to use the revenues generated from these auctions for decarbonization-related goals.
Monitoring, reporting and verification
From 2026, every year, by 30 April, regulated entities must submit emissions report for emissions from the previous year. This data must be verified by an accredited verifier. Starting in 2028, entities covered will be required to surrender the allowances by 31 May each year.
Market Stability Reserve
In 2027, 600 million allowances will be created as holdings in the market stability reserve. If, for more than three consecutive months, the average price of allowances in auctions is more than twice the average price during the six preceding months, 50 million allowances will be released from the reserve. For 2027 and 2028, this condition is met if the average price exceeds 1.5 times the average price during the reference period. What is more, if the average price of allowances exceeds EUR 45 (indexation based on the European index of consumer prices for 2020 shall apply) for two consecutive months, 20 million allowances will be released. This mechanism helps to maintain price stability and market confidence.
Social Climate Fund
The Social Climate Fund (SCF) aims to ensure support for the vulnerable groups, such as households facing energy or transport poverty. The funds can be used by Member States for investments in energy efficiency, building renovations, heating and cooling systems, renewable energy, and zero- and low-emission mobility. A part of the resources can be used also as a temporary direct income support. The SCF will be financed through revenues from the auctioning of allowances under ETS2, 50 million allowances from the existing EU ETS and a mandatory 25% contribution from Member States to their Social Climate Plans. It will equal at least EUR 86.7 billion in the 2026-2032 period.
Nothing to be afraid of
The carbon price set by the ETS2 will provide a significant market incentive for investments in clean energy development, building renovations, and low-emissions mobility. Countries are expected to utilise ETS2 revenues for climate action and social measures, ensuring further decarbonization with affordable costs. In the event of exceptionally high energy prices, the start of ETS 2 application can be postponed until 2028.
By:
Martyna Szlufik
Environmental Law | EY Cyprus
Martyna.Szlufik1@cy.ey.com