India’s coking coal imports set to rise as steel capacity targets 300 MT by 2030: EY-Parthenon & ISA report

• India’s coking coal demand expected to rise from 87 MT in FY25 to 135 MT by 2030, driven by steel industry expansion under the National Steel Policy and Viksit Bharat agenda
• Domestic production targeted to more than double from 66.8 MT raw coal in FY24 to 140 MT by FY30, supported by reforms and beneficiation initiatives
• Australia remains the dominant source of India’s coking coal, with USA, Canada, and Russia together making up a significant share of imports. To reduce reliance on this concentrated group of suppliers, India is also exploring newer sources such as Mongolia and Mozambique

NEW DELHI, September 10, 2025 – India’s coking coal imports are projected to grow significantly as the nation targets 300 MT of steel production capacity by 2030, according to the latest report by EY Parthenon in association with the Indian Steel Association (ISA). The report, India’s Coking Coal Strategy: Building Resilience through Innovation, Sustainability and Policy, highlights how rising steel demand from infrastructure, construction, and automotive sectors will fuel coking coal requirements.

The report further states that, India, the world’s second-largest steel producer, remains heavily reliant on coking coal, with the steel industry consuming ~95% of the demand. The blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) route, accounts for approximately 65% of installed capacity and 58% of actual production, with the steel industry consuming 95% of India's total coking coal demand. This reliance means demand is projected to increase sharply from 87 MT in FY25 to 135 MT by 2030.

To strengthen self-reliance, the government’s Atmanirbhar Coal Mission under Mission Coking Coal seeks to scale domestic raw output to 140 MT by FY30—105 MT from Coal India and 35 MT from private allocations—while enhancing the washed coal capacity to 15 MT. Policy reforms, including 100% FDI in mining, revenue-sharing auctions, and 20–30% capital subsidies for washeries, aim to reduce import dependence from ~90% today to below 80% by 2030, accelerate beneficiation, and enhance supply security.

Commenting on the report, Vinayak Vipul, Partner, Business Consulting, EY Parthenon said: “India’s steel ambitions cannot be realized without addressing its heavy reliance on imported coking coal. While domestic production is projected to double by 2030, imports will still play a defining role in meeting demand. This dependence makes the sector vulnerable to price volatility and supply chain shocks. The way ahead is clear—India must accelerate beneficiation to unlock the true value of its reserves, diversify sourcing to reduce risk, and invest in technologies that pave the way toward low-carbon steel. Building a transparent pricing index and a national reserve will be equally critical to balance growth with resilience and sustainability.”

With rising coal consumption in steel production, the industry has also become a significant contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, both globally (7%-8%) and 12% within India. This reality underscores the urgent need for cleaner technologies and comprehensive decarbonization efforts across the sector.

Naveen Jindal, President Indian Steel Association said: “India’s steel industry is entering a transformative era, driven by rising domestic demand and global competition. Coking coal remains the backbone of steelmaking, and securing a reliable, high-quality supply is a strategic necessity for national growth. With stronger resource security, technological innovation and clear policy support, India can build a stronger and globally competitive steel sector.”

Key findings from the report:

• Import dependence: India currently meets about 90% of its coking coal demand through imports but expanded domestic beneficiation, enhanced washed coal capacity output to 15 MT, and new supply corridors aim to reduce this dependency to under 80% by 2030
• Domestic production push: The government aims to raise domestic production from 66.8 MT raw coal in FY24 to 140 MT by FY30, through policies such as the Mission Coking Coal, WDO (Washery Developer–Operator) models, and First Mile Connectivity projects.
• Price volatility & stockpiling need:  Heavy reliance on imports exposes India to global geopolitical risks and price fluctuations. While CICCI provides domestic price discovery, industry demands a credible India-centric CFR index that captures landed costs including freight, insurance. Developing CFR-linked futures contracts will enable steelmakers to hedge price risk more effectively.
• Sustainability challenges: The steel industry contributes 12% of India’s total emissions, above the global average of ~8%. The decarbonization roadmap projects coal-based steel production to decline from 89% in 2030 to 29% by 2050, reaching net-zero by 2070 through green hydrogen DRI, scrap-based EAF, and CCUS technologies.

A cohesive industry-government partnership, through joint investment in washery expansion, strategic stockpiles at key ports, and public-private consortia for overseas mine equity, will be vital in securing supply chains, capturing value closer to the source, and modernizing beneficiation. By aligning policy, incentives, and collaborative governance, India can build a competitive, sustainable, and self-reliant coking coal ecosystem to underpin its steel ambitions through 2070.

Domestic Steel makers have pointed that origin agnostic index, FoB Australia should be net back factoring all origins deals (this will improve liquidity and transparency) during deliberation in 3rd edition of ISA Coking Coal Summit held on September 8th, 2025, has requested all the PRA accordingly.

The report concludes that a balanced approach strengthening domestic production, diversifying imports, building stockpiles, and advancing decarbonization technologies—will be essential for India to meet its ambitious steel production targets while aligning with its 2070 net-zero goal.

Notes to Editors

About EY Parthenon

EY Parthenon teams work with clients to navigate complexity by helping them reimagine their ecosystems, reshape their portfolios and reinvent themselves for a better future. With global connectivity and scale, EY Parthenon teams focus on Strategy Realized—helping CEOs design and deliver strategies to better manage challenges while maximizing opportunities as they look to transform their businesses.

About India Steel Association

The Indian Steel Association (ISA) serves as the voice of the Indian steel industry, both in domestic and global forums. It plays a leading role in all deliberations related to public and regulatory policies, raw materials, international trade, logistics, environmental concerns, technology, and other aspects of steelmaking. The Indian steel industry relies on ISA to advance its critical agenda of sustained growth—both in steel production and in driving steel demand. ISA was formed in 2014 and represents about 65% of the total domestic capacity. Its members include seven executive members: JSW Steel Limited, Tata Steel Limited, Steel Authority of India Limited, Jindal Steel and Power, ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India, Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited, and JSW Bhushan Power & Steel Limited. There are also 12 affiliate members: NMDC Steel Limited, Jindal Stainless Steel Limited, Arjas Steel, ESL Steel Limited, Saarloha Advanced Material Pvt Ltd (Kalyani Group), Rungta Mines Limited, Odisha Metalliks Pvt Ltd (OMPL), JSW Ispat Special Products Limited, MS Agarwal Foundries Pvt Ltd, Evonith Steel, Maruti Ispat & Energy Pvt Limited, and RL Steel. Additionally, ISA has two associate members: Karnataka Iron and Steel Manufacturers Association (KISMA) and the Institute for Steel Development and Growth (INSDAG)