Press release
06 Jun 2024  | London, GB

EV sales stall in US and Europe as market uncertainty persists – EY Analysis 

  • Battery electric vehicles will account for more than 50% of total sales in China by the end of this decade – two years faster than previous forecasts
  • US EV demand and sales plateauing due to affordability concerns, lack of infrastructure and a short-term shift towards hybrids
  • Europe’s EV sales slowing due to reductions in EV incentives, lack of affordable EV models, and consumer concerns about insufficient chargers

The US and Europe are expected to see slowing electric vehicle (EV) demand and sales in the near-term while China is set to experience steady growth, according to the latest EY Mobility Lens Forecaster, an artificial intelligence (AI) -powered forecasting tool that provides an outlook for volumes of light vehicle registrations through to 2050.

In the US, high interest rates, inadequate charging infrastructure and uncertain economic conditions have fueled affordability and range concerns, resulting in a slowdown in EV sales, although this is expected to plateau in the near-term. Europe is being impacted by high prices, economic uncertainty and inadequate infrastructure, slowing electric vehicle (EV) adoption. While other parts of the world are experiencing an EV slowdown, China remains on course for growth with battery electric vehicle (BEV) set to make up more than 50% of all sales by 2030 – two years faster than previously suggested by forecasts. Despite the current EV sales slowdown in the US and Europe, long-term forecasts remain unchanged with an expectation of BEVs making up 50% of sales by 2030 in Europe and 2033 in the US.

Despite delayed government targets and uncertainty about EV policies beyond the forthcoming US presidential election, the optimistic forecast for the US sees more locally produced EVs pushing up sales, which would be supported by import restrictions of non-US manufactured products. Equally, the forecast shows that Chinese automakers will have to face a tightening of trade policies by the EU and US imposing stricter sanctions on EV imports, which would result in a decline in Chinese export sales. In this scenario, Chinese EV manufacturers will have to deal with with high tariff barriers and would have to reassess and adapt their EV expansion strategies.

Martin Cardell, EY Global Mobility Solutions Leader, says:

“The current global EV marketplace is mired with a lot of uncertainty around economic prospects, varying regulations across markets, consumer anxiety and lagging infrastructure build-up. The result has been a plateau in EV sales in the US and Europe. Meanwhile, in China – where is there is more certainty in regulation, incentives and infrastructure – we continue to see steady EV growth and we expect to see BEVs become the majority vehicle type two years earlier than previously predicted. We view the current headwinds that EV sales are experiencing in the US and Europe as short-term in nature. The buildup of charging infrastructure, availability of affordable EV models with a fall in battery prices combined with government regulations will drive sustainable BEV growth in the long run.

“EVs are the future. Our numbers bear that out. Current challenges will be overcome by the industry and government, and EVs will regain momentum and will ultimately dominate the automotive market."

– Ends –

Notes to editors

About EY

EY exists to build a better working world, helping create long-term value for clients, people and society and build trust in the capital markets.

Enabled by data and technology, diverse EY teams in over 150 countries provide trust through assurance and help clients grow, transform and operate.

Working across assurance, consulting, law, strategy, tax and transactions, EY teams ask better questions to find new answers for the complex issues facing our world today.

EY refers to the global organization, and may refer to one or more, of the member firms of Ernst & Young Global Limited, each of which is a separate legal entity. Ernst & Young Global Limited, a UK company limited by guarantee, does not provide services to clients.

Information about how EY collects and uses personal data and a description of the rights individuals have under data protection legislation are available via ey.com/privacy. EY member firms do not practice law where prohibited by local laws. For more information about our organization, please visit ey.com.

This news release has been issued by EYGM Limited, a member of the global EY organization that also does not provide any services to clients.

About the EY Global Advanced Manufacturing & Mobility Sector

Urbanization, changing consumer expectations and emerging digital technologies are reshaping what’s possible, from the production and distribution of goods to the transportation of people. To succeed in this new world of mobility and smart manufacturing, incumbents must transform themselves at unprecedented speed — to think like an innovative startup, tap into new talent and engage the customer. With experience across the value chain and key technology alliances, our teams show clients how to create efficiencies now while adopting digitization and optionality for long-term growth. Automotive, transportation, aerospace, defense, chemicals and industrial products companies can draw on the strength of our network of cross-industry players and put our diverse range of approaches to use today to equip their businesses for tomorrow.

Related news

Foreign direct investment in Europe declines for first time since pandemic

LONDON, 2 MAY 2024. Foreign direct investment (FDI) into Europe declined in 2023, falling by 4% compared with 2022, and has dropped to 11% lower than in 2019, just before the COVID-19 pandemic hit, according to the annual EY European Attractiveness Survey 2024 – the most in-depth and long-running annual analysis of FDI into the continent.

Resilient CEOs prioritize AI investments now and decarbonization next

LONDON, 1 MAY 2024. CEOs are feeling more hopeful about their immediate prospects and the actions they need to take now to create capital for investment in future growth.

EY announces alliance with SAP Fioneer to help deliver broad and large-scale financial transformations

LONDON, 30 April 2024. The EY organization today announces an alliance between SAP Fioneer, a world-class software solution provider for financial services, and EY ifb SE to help facilitate software selection, business transformation, training and change management in the financial services industry.

Three in four businesses failing to manage talent mobility effectively, as demand for international work experience soars

LONDON, April 23, 2024 – Companies around the world could be at risk of losing out in the race for talent and driving business resilience because they are failing to mobilize their workforce effectively and create opportunities for flexible work experiences, according to the EY 2024 Mobility Reimagined Survey.

EY launches OpsChain Contract Manager solution to support secure private business agreements on public Ethereum

LONDON, April 17, 2024 – The EY organization today announces the launch of EY OpsChain Contract Manager (OCM), a transformative blockchain-enabled solution for contract management. EY OCM helps enterprises to execute complex business agreements, supporting confidentiality, helping improve time efficiency, and achieving cost reduction, with automatic adherence to the agreed terms.

EY and Saïd Business School study reveals that leaders prioritizing a human-centered approach to transformation turning points are up to 12x more successful

LONDON,16 April 2024. The EY organization’s latest research with Saïd Business School, at the University of Oxford, reveals new insights into what happens when a transformation program’s leadership believes a transformation has or will go off-course and intervenes with the intent of improving its performance (turning points).